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Massachusetts Special Election
Democratic Nominee:
-State Attorney General Martha Coakley
-Coakley ActBlue Page
Election Day:
-JANUARY 19
Resources:
-Kennedyseat.com
-Blue Mass Group
-Boston Globe

Election Day 2010 is in:

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Democratic Senators and Candidates
Alabama:
-unknown
Alaska:
-unknown
Arizona:
-Tuscon City Councilman Rodney Glassman (considering)
Arkansas:
-Senator Blanche Lincoln
California:
-Senator Barbara Boxer
Colorado:
-Senator Michael Bennet
-Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff
Connecticut:
-Senator Christopher Dodd
Delaware:
-Attorney General Beau Biden (considering)
Florida:
-Congressman Kendrick Meek
-North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns
-Former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre
Georgia:
-unknown
Hawaii:
-Senator Daniel Inouye
Idaho:
-unknown
Illinois:
-Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias
-Chicago Urban League CEO Cheryle Jackson
-Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman
-Attorney Jacob Meister
Indiana:
-Senator Evan Bayh
Iowa:
-Attorney Roxanne Conlin
-Former State Senator Tom Fiegen
-Former State Representative Bob Krause
Kansas:
-Retired newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger
Kentucky:
-Attorney General Jack Conway
-Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo
-Former Customs Agent Darlene Fitzgerald Price
Louisiana:
-Congressman Charlie Melancon
Maryland:
-Senator Barbara Mikulski
Missouri:
-Secretary of State Robin Carnahan
Nevada:
-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
New Hampshire:
-Congressman Paul Hodes
New York-A:
-Senator Chuck Schumer
New York-B:
-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
-Activist Jonathan Tasini
North Carolina:
-Former State Senator Cal Cunningham
-Secretary of State Elaine Marshall
-Attorney Kenneth Lewis
-Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy (considering)
North Dakota:
-Senator Byron Dorgan
Ohio:
-Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher
-Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner
Oklahoma:
-unknown
Oregon:
-Senator Ron Wyden
Pennsylvania:
-Congressman Joe Sestak
-Arlen Specter?
-State Representative Bill Kortz
South Carolina:
-Attorney Chad McGowan
South Dakota:
-unknown
Texas (when KBH resigns):
-Houston Mayor Bill White
-Former Comptroller John Sharp
-Doctor Alma Aguado
Utah:
-Liquor Control Commission Chair & Businessman Sam Granato
Vermont:
-Senator Patrick Leahy
Washington:
-Senator Patty Murray
Wisconsin:
-Senator Russ Feingold

Republican Retirements, Resignations & Passings
Sam Brownback (R-KS): Announced retirement, 12/18/08
Christopher "Kit" Bond (R-MO): Announced retirement, 1/8/09
George Voinovich (R-OH): Announced retirement, 1/12/09
Judd Gregg (R-NH): Announced retirement (we think), 2/12/09
Jim Bunning (R-KY): Announced retirement, 7/27/09
Mel Martinez (R-FL): Officially resigned, 9/9/09

Primary Challengers to GOP Incumbents
Arizona (John McCain):
-Minutemen founder Chris Simcox
-Businessman Jim Deakin
-Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth (rumored)
Georgia (Johnny Isakson):
-Congressman Paul Broun (rumored)
Louisiana (David Vitter):
-Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (considering)
-Retired Lieutenant General Russel Honore (rumored)
-Retired State Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor (rumored)
Utah (Robert Bennett):
-Businesswoman Cherilyn Eagar
-Businessman James Williams
-Businessman Tim Bridgewater
-Former Juab County Attorney (and gubernatorial brother) David Leavitt (rumored)
-Former gubernatorial counsel Mike Lee (rumored)

Primary Challengers to GOP Establishment-Anointed Candidates
Colorado (Jane Norton):
-Weld County DA Ken Buck
-Businessman Cleve Tidwell
-Former State Senator Tom Wiens
-Attorney Luke Korkowski
Connecticut (Rob Simmons):
-Businesswoman Linda McMahon
-Economist Peter Schiff
-2004 Senate Nominee Jack Orchulli (considering)
Florida (Charlie Crist):
-Former State House Speaker Marco Rubio
-Former U.S. Senator Bob Smith
-Former Chief Medical Officer Marion Thorpe Jr.
Illinois (Mark Kirk):
-Real estate developer Pat Hughes
-Businessman Robert Zadek
-Former Alderman John Arrington
-Businessman and Minister Eric Wallace
-Political activist Andy Martin
Kentucky (Trey Grayson):
-Anti-tax activist Rand Paul
-Businessman and Veteran Bill Johnson
-Teacher Brian Oerther
-Engineer Roger Thoney
-Former Ambassador Cathy Bailey (considering)
Missouri (Roy Blunt):
-State Senator Chuck Purgason
New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte):
-1996 Gubernatorial Nominee Ovide Lamontagne
-Businessman Jim Bender
-Republican National Committeeman Sean Mahoney (considering)
-Businessman William Binnie (considering)
Ohio (Rob Portman):
-Businessman Tom Ganley

Right-Leaning Candidates
Colorado:
-Businessman Maclyn Stringer (Libertarian)
Florida:
-Professor Marshall DeRosa (Constitution)
-Veteran Alex Snitker (Libertarian)
Georgia:
-Radio personality Eric Von Haessler (Libertarian)
Louisiana:
-Anthony Gentile (Libertarian)
-Vietnam veteran William Robert Lang (independent)
Nevada:
-Conservative activist Jim Duensing (Libertarian)
New Hampshire:
-Businessman & veteran Ken Blevens (Libertarian)
North Carolina:
-Business analyst Mike Beitler (Libertarian)
Ohio:
-Electrical engineer Eric Deaton (independent)
Pennsylvania:
-Businessman Mike Yilit (independent)
Texas:
-Veteran Jon Roland (Libertarian)
Wisconsin:
-Software engineer Rob Taylor (Constitution)

Links
-Democratic National Committee
-Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
-DSCC's YouTube Page

-CQPolitics Balance of Power Scorecard (regularly updated)
-Swing State Project Competitive Senate Race Ratings (8/11/09)
-Cook Political Report Senate Race Ratings (7/30/09)
-Rothenberg Political Report 2010 Senate Ratings (7/27/09)
-Rasmussen Reports 2010 Election Polls
-Real Clear Politics' 2008 Senate Latest Polls
-Pollster.com 2008 Senate Elections
-National Journal 2008 Senate Race Rankings (7/23/08)
-Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Senate Sensibilities (6/19/08)

-The Hill
-Politico
-Roll Call

-2010 Senate Elections Wikipedia Page
-U.S. Senate Seat-Holders Chart, 1978-present
-Pollster.com
-Project Vote Smart
-An Inconvenient Truth
-Senator Chuck Schumer's Positively American
-Americans United for Change
-Empowering Veterans
-Vote Vets
-Electoral-Vote.com
-Memeorandum

Blog Roll
Senate 2008 Guru

-All Spin Zone
-AmericaBlog
-Atrios
-Bob Geiger
-Booman Tribune
-Campaign Diaries
-The Caucus (NY Times)
-Common Ground (DSCC)
-Congress Matters
-CQPolitics
-CQPolitics Eye on 2010
-Crooks and Liars
-Daily Kos
-The Democratic Daily
-Digby
-Down with Tyranny!
-Elect Blue
-Electile Dysfunction
-Firedoglake
-First Read (MSNBC)
-FiveThirtyEight.com
-The Fix (Washington Post)
-The Gavel (Speaker Pelosi)
-The Group News Blog
-Gun Toting Liberal
-Hotline Blogometer
-Hotline On Call
-The Huffington Post
-Kicking Ass (DNC)
-Left in the West
-Liberal Values
-Marc Ambinder
-MyDD
-Open Left
-The Plum Line (Greg Sargent)
-Political Animal
-Political Base
-The Political Carnival
-Political Ticker (CNN)
-Political Wire
-Politics1
-Progressive Blog Digest
-Progressive Blue
-Real Clear Politics Blog
-Real Clear Politics: Politics Nation
-The Rothenberg Political Report
-Scholars & Rogues
-Senatus
-The Stakeholder (DCCC)
-Swing State Project
-Talking Points Memo
-Think Progress
-VetVoice
-War Room (Salon)
-Wonkette

-43rd State Blues (ID)
-The Albany Project (NY)
-AZ Netroots (AZ)
-Barefoot and Progressive (KY)
-Bleeding Heartland (IA)
-Blogging Blue (WI)
-Blue Arkansas (AR)
-Blue Hampshire (NH)
-Blue Indiana (IN)
-Blue NC (NC)
-Blue Oklahoma (OK)
-Blue Oregon (OR)
-Buckeye State Blog (OH)
-Burnt Orange Report (TX)
-Calitics (CA)
-Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis (AK)
-Colorado Pols (CO)
-The Daily Gotham (NY)
-Delaware Liberal (DE)
-Daily Kingfish (LA)
-Ditch Mitch KY (KY)
-Doc's Political Parlor (AL)
-Fired Up! Missouri (MO)
-FLA Politics (FL)
-Forward Kansas (KS)
-Free State Politics (MD)
-Green Mountain Daily (VT)
-Horse's Ass Seattle (WA)
-Indigo Journal (SC)
-Kansas Jackass (KS)
-Left in Alabama (AL)
-Legum's New Line (MD)
-The Locust Fork Journal (AL)
-Maryland Politics Watch (MD)
-The MountainGoat Report (ID)
-My Left Nutmeg (CT)
-North Decoder (ND)
-Ohio Daily Blog (OH)
-The Pennsylvania Progressive (PA)
-Prarie State Blue (IL)
-Progress Illinois (IL)
-Progressive Alaska (AK)
-Public Policy Polling (NC)
-Red State Rebels (ID)
-Show Me Progress (MO)
-Square State (CO)
-Texas Kaos (TX)
-Tondee's Tavern (GA)
-Uppity Wisconsin (WI)
-The Wasatch Watcher (UT)
-Washblog (WA)


Cheering Them On
-Draft Coop (NC)
-Draft Elaine Marshall (NC)
-Draft Jane Kidd (GA)

Revealing Their Record
-Cut and Run Charlie Crist (FL)
-Doing a Vitter! The David Vitter Hypocrisy Watch (LA)
-The Idiot Factor: Todd Tiahrt's Folly (KS)
-Not One Red Cent (NRSC)
-Peter King Watch (NY)
-The REAL McCain (AZ)
-Republican Against Richard Burr (NC)
-Rob Portman: Architect of the Bush Economy (OH)
-Turncoat Trey (KY)

YouTube Video Library

The Hall of Fame YouTube Political Video: George Allen and "Macaca"


On Republican Obstructionism


Republican Scandals of 2007


DSCC Chair Bob Menendez Says Hello


MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan Enters the Race


GA-Sen: Georgia can't afford Johnny Isakson


Google Ads

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Informative Widgets





Senate Guru

Saturday Round-Up

by: Senate Guru

Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 15:10 PM EDT


  • Colorado: The Denver Post's damning exposé on Backwards Bob Scaffer's relationship with corrupt Jack Abramoff's lobbying firm's activities in the Northern Mariana Islands continues.  Apparently, Schaffer went to bat for the Islands' Governor big-time so that the Governor could help Abramoff's firm's clients lock up their juicy contracts.  Meanwhile, Schaffer's camp is offering nothing in the way of damage control or fact denial.  When asked if the story was true, all Schaffer could say, before running from the media, is that he never personally met Abramoff - but Schaffer said nothing to deny the actual charges.  Such is the curse of Dick "Macaca" Wad(hams).  In other news, Big Oil Bob Schaffer's profiting from the Iraq War is illustrated in a concise web video.  Oh, and all the stories about Schaffer's ties to unsavory characters and his benefiting financially from the Iraq War should be put to rest as Dick Cheney came to Colorado yesterday to raise money for Schaffer.

  • New Hampshire: Sprintin' John Sununu makes it clear that he has no intention of providing oversight on Iraq or working to bring the war to an end.  Ever.

  • Oregon: The Democrats running for Senate in Oregon held another debate.  At the debate, there was a question on the impact of blogging.  Speaker Jeff Merkley praised blogging for its ability to disseminate information on progressive candidates.  Steve Novick called blogging "a way for a number of people to waste a vast amount of time."  I like to think bloggers are doing more than "wasting a vast amount of time," but what do I know?  That wasn't Novick's only significant faux pas.  After having taken heat for past support of Ralph Nader and past harsh bashing of Barack Obama, Novick's Democratic Party loyalty is again called into question as, at the debate, he suggested that he'd prefer to see the independent candidate for Senator, John Frohnmayer, win the race instead of the Democratic nominee if he himself doesn't win the primary.  The Guru will support whoever wins the nomination, and will add Oregon's Democratic nominee for Senate against the loathsome Gordon Smith to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.  It would be nice if Novick demonstrated similar Party loyalty.

  • Virginia: Headlines like "Signs favor Gilmore in GOP race for Senate" should be an embarrassment for Jim Gilmore, a former Governor struggling to lock-up his Party's nomination for Senate (forget about the general election) against an upstart state delegate who is still scoring good press.

  • Alaska: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, still not an official candidate for Senate in 2008, has raised over a quarter-million dollars for his exploratory effort.  Considering that Ted Stevens only has $1.3 million in cash-on-hand, Begich's exploratory effort is off to a great start.

  • Alabama: New Rasmussen Reports poll numbers sees Republican Jeff Sessions with a 57-36 lead on State Senator Vivian Figures.  While this is clearly a longshot race, if Figures can highlight Sessions' suspected corruption, both in receiving illegal gifts and/or contributions and in profiting from pushing legislation/amendments benefiting banking institutions in which he held stock, it could tighten the numbers some.  Further, George W. Bush's approve-disapprove in Alabama stands at 45-54.  If Figures push the corruption and Bush angles successfully, we could see this become a ten-point race in the next several months.  At the very least, we could force Sessions to sweat and have to hustle.

  • Oklahoma: Jim "In Denial" Inhofe wants to let the current mortgage crisis linger and fester.  State Senator Andrew Rice wants to solve the mortgage crisis.  The choice is clear.

  • Both BooMan and tremayne at Open Left offer their latest looks at the 2008 Senate races.
  • Senate Guru :: Saturday Round-Up
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    Saturday Round-Up | 48 comments
    What???
    Oregon...What the hell is Novick thinking? It's almost like he's trying to throw the damn primary away and build support up for Merkley. If I was voting there, I'm pretty sure my vote was already behind Merkley but it's just solidifying more and more now.

    Alaska...I feel disappointed in Begich's fundraising, but I don't know what to balance that against given he's in "Exploratory Committee" mode. I mean there is only 2 months left until the deadline, when do we get an official annoucement?

    Alabama...I know I was considered nuts for putting Alabama in the Republican Likely category instead of SAFE GOP, but if this story breaks (at least there is a story to potentially break) on Sessions scandel, you never know!

    Let's pick up the six seats that are in our sights and hold onto Louisiana to get to 57-43 (a 12 seat swing in 2 election cycles) and then fight hard for some upsets to get us to 60 in this election or the next.

    KELL


    Begich Announcement
    I'd have to run through a slew of links to confirm this, but I'm pretty sure that Mayor Begich said that he'd have a final decision by the end of this month.

    After having raised a significant chunk of change (for Alaska, very significant) and having moved forward thus far, I can't fathom that he wouldn't make the exploratory campaign official.


    [ Parent ]
    Another day, another smear
    You know, it's OK to have a preference (as long as you're straight about it), but making up and distorting stuff in order to take shots at the candidate you don't want really erodes your credibility. Regarding Oregon:

    *It was not a debate, it was an endorsement interview.

    *You managed to leave out the sentence immediately prior to Novick's statement about bloggers, in which he AGREED WITH MERKLEY, that sometimes they provided information. Sometimes they are also just people finding a way to waste time. Does anyone really dispute that? If you're taking it personally, maybe you ARE wasting your time. I know I'm not, so why would I worry or be offended?

    *You also managed to leave out Novick's clear statement that he WOULD VOTE FOR MERKLEY IF HE WERE THE NOMINEE.

    *The only "heat" Novick has taken for "supporting Ralph Nader," is from Merkley himself, who apparently thinks it was wrong to vote for him in 1996, and urge people NOT to vote for Nader in 2000. Which is exactly what Novick did, writing an LTE to the Oregonian urging a vote for Gore in 2000, not Nader.

    Calling Novick's loyalty to the party into question is plain ignorant smearing. Who was it who stuck his neck out for the party when everyone else decided not to take on Smith and his millions? Merkley? No, he was the party's 8th choice. Who has worked for Democrats for his entire political career, including the sitting governor and the state Senate? Who has run campaigns for Democrats? Who is willing to vote for the Democrat, EVEN THOUGH HE DOESN'T REALLY BELIEVE HE'S THE BEST CANDIDATE? I mean, it's absurd.

    Report the race. Declare your obvious preference for Merkley. But don't salt the earth and lie about his opponent just because you're worried that Merkley is bombing like Albert Brooks in Pakistan in the polls. You owe your readers better. I have a clear preference, but I don't spread smears about Merkley just so people will think ill.  


    [ Parent ]
    I don't know where to begin.
    Novick was basically backpedalling when he said that he'd suck it up and vote for the Dem.

    When asked what grade he'd give Merkley, he said he'd give him between a B+ and an A-.  And when asked why he isn't more comfortable with a candidate whose job he just gave an A-/B+, he sputtered something about Merkley's website not being thorough enough.

    Spin it however you want, man.

    As for these "smears" you're decrying, I'd suggest revisiting how you and the Novick camp framed Merkley's position on the Iraq War.

    I have zero problem with your support for a candidate I'm not sold on.  What bothers me is the Kool-Aid breath.  Any candidate who can do absolutely no wrong in somebody's view is a poor reflection on the viewer, not the candidate.


    [ Parent ]
    Start by correcting your reportage
    you misdescribed the event, distorted a candidate's position twice to spin it your way by omitting counterfactual info, and near ad I can tell mistranscribed part of the response. Your premise that Nobick won't support the Dem nominee is factually incorrect. That's what reflects on you.

    Novick's position on Merkley's vote in favor of the invasion and Bush is that if Merkley can be we easily baited by state Republicans, how can he stand up to the big boys?


    [ Parent ]
    Seeing as the nominee is likely to be Novick or Merkley
    I think it's a fair characterization.  He refuses to support the Dem nominee if it isn't him.  

    [ Parent ]
    RSS Feed - Now on my Google Homepage
    I didn't even know I could add the SenateGuru onto my iGoogle homepage (I'm new to all this blogging starting early 2008)! Now I can easily see when an update is added, although I always come to the page to read comments and react as well.  

    KELL

    Yeah, we have phenomenal comments
    I love reading the insights and responses.  (And I especially love it when readers link to stories, poll numbers, events, posts, etc. that I've missed.)

    [ Parent ]
    yeah i use IGoogle
    Guru is right next to SSP and Dailykos on my page.

    "Democrats never agree on anything, that's why they're Democrats. If they agreed with each other, they would be Republicans."-Will Rogers

    Good to know...
    Thanks for alerting me that SSP is available there, I'm going to go get it now.

    KELL

    [ Parent ]
    OR-Sen: What is going on with Novick
    Originally: leaned Merkley, didn't care much, but Merkley had the establishment arm behind him, and it appeared as though he would likely be a stronger GE challenger based on their profiles.  

    2nd: After the "Break the rules to endorse the other candidate"-gate, I was pretty much in with the Merkley camp, just because it seemed like they were trying to stage something.  And the lady never got why there was such a problem with it.  

    3rd: "The tale of two endorsements" as one blogger put it.  The difference in how Novick endorsed Obama and how Merkley endorsed Obama.  Kind of made me upset.  

    4th: Insulting Bloggers.  That's kind of the last straw with me.  I don't jump financially into a bunch of races.  I'm still a college student!  But now, I'm seriously considering tossing 40-50 bucks in for Merkley.  I don't want to see Novick win.  Period.  Weaker GE candidate, and he's had a number of statements that will come up from the primary that makes him a huge risk in the general.  


    Novick prefers Third Party to Fellow Dem
    Let me put this up front: both Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley are principled progressives who would be a much greater senator than Smith.

    That said, I think Jeff Merkley has the skills and talent it takes to beat Gordon Smith in the fall.  He's led the most productive state legislative session in decades and captured 7 GOP-held seats in just 2 elections.

    Steve Novick has the tendency to go over-the-top in his criticism of fellow Democrats and progressives, and I fear that this will turn off the voters we need to beat Smith in November.

    Example 1: Novick has called Barack Obama a 'special-interest fraud'.  How is that going to play in Oregon when a million voters are going to the polls for Obama?

    Example 2: Novick has called Hillary Clinton a 'traitress'.  That's not just sexist, it's quite incendiary.  There are lots of HRC supporters in Oregon, and this won't play well if HRC is the Veep nominee or something similar.

    Example 3: Steve Novick has said that blogs are little more than a 'waste of time', even harmful to some.  He has since retracted that statement, but I think we all agree it shouldn't have been made in the first place.

    And lastly, Novick has said that he prefers independent John Frohnmayer to take on Smith over fellow progressive Democrat Jeff Merkley if Jeff's the nominee.  There's no way Frohnmayer can beat Smith; Novick is simply letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

    When pressed, he admitted that he'd grudgingly vote for Jef Merkley should he be the nominee.

    Oregon's challenge to Smith is already an uphill battle.  We don't need a bombthrowing nominee to jeopardize our chances even further by saying unflattering things about the people we need in our movement to oust Smith.


    [ Parent ]
    Honestly, Novick can vote for anyone
    I don't care. But at least he would vote third party not Gordon Smith.  

    But a vote for a third party candidate
    is one more vote for Smith in that it's one less vote for the guy trying to oust him.  Remember Mr. Nader?

    Check out Blue Arkansas:
    http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/


    [ Parent ]
    add Merkely to expand the map
    Why wait until after the May primary to add Oregon to expand the map?  Clearly, you should add Merkley now after Novick's latest assault on reason.  Novick was always a long shot, but at this point he's shot himself in the head so many times it's clear if we want to get to 60, Merkley needs to win the primary.  

    I think it wouldn't be fair to guru's readers to financially take a side
    during the primary.  In almost every instance of his "Expand the map" additions (With the exception of Nebraska, for good reason) he has waited until there was one remaining candidate who the blogosphere has rallied around.  

    [ Parent ]
    Got My Support
    Merkley has my 100% support now, from my blogging comments to a financial contribution. I want no part of Novick or his help in expanding the Democratic Majority in the Congress and Obama in the WH. Good day sir!

    KELL

    [ Parent ]
    The Merkley campaign is great with the netroots
    Carla Axtman is the netroots coordinator for Merkley is super awesome.  You should drop her a line carla @ jeffmerkley . com.  The campaign does really great blogger meet ups if your in Oregon and it was through her that I got to interview Jeff (who really is a terrific guy and candidate) for my blog.

    [ Parent ]
    For what it's worth
    I encourage readers to get behind any candidate - or to stay neutral and learn more about the candidates - or lean toward one candidate or the other and stay open to arguments.

    Let's have a variety of perspectives - as long as we share the same goal of replacing Republican obstacles to progress with Democratic Senators who will work toward an agenda the benefits all Americans.

    And off my soapbox I go.


    [ Parent ]
    always a long shot?
    You know he leads Merkley by double digits according to SUSA this week, and has led every poll, right?

    [ Parent ]
    The poll has very high undecideds.
    It didn't look that accurate.  I would expect the next couple of weeks to really break everything down so we can get a clearer look at it.  But I wouldn't look at a poll with 40% undecided and say "My guy is winning this!"

    [ Parent ]
    it was 70% three months ago
    He's led every poll since August. And undecideds were 30 points higher in January, so that 30 percent broke pretty hard for Steve. If you consider that 60% committed, Merkley will have to best Novick by 15 points over the last 40% undecided to come even. Certainly doable, but there's got to be a sudden swing of opinion for that to happen. The margin is 4.1, so he's definitely leading.

    In isolation it predicts nothing, but there isn't a bit of evidence to suggest otherwise, and plenty of corroboration.

    Anyhow, that moved the goal posts. I was responding to "always a long shot," and never actually said "my guy is winning this." That was you.  


    [ Parent ]
    Are you serious?
    Even the third tier candidates were getting 5-6% each, another broke 10%.  That doesn't seem realistic either.  You're putting way too much stock in that one poll.  Like it is fact.  
    --------------------
    "You know he leads Merkley by double digits according to SUSA this week, and has led every poll, right?"
    --------------------
    So you were responding to the guys remark, it sure comes off as "Steve Novick is leading the primary right now"  Since he's your guy, "My guy is leading right now" sounds like it characterizes your opinion quite well.  

    Especially since you're characterizing these polls as fact, I don't see what's wrong with my characterization of your statements.  And I'm arguing the validity (again) of the SUSA senate primary poll.  


    [ Parent ]
    Questionable analysis
    "If you consider that 60% committed, Merkley will have to best Novick by 15 points over the last 40% undecided to come even."

    That's assuming Novick's portion is rock-solid.

    Funny that you leave out that Novick went up on the air with ads in, like, January and Merkley only launched his first TV in, I believe, the past week.

    After having the airwaves to himself for months, getting 23% of the vote is nothing to crow about.  And I hardly think it qualifies as rock-solid support.

    Merkley going up on the airwaves will re-shape the entire poll dynamic.  In a few weeks, if Merkley hasn't moved from his position in the Survey USA poll, he's indeed in trouble.  But touting a poll reflecting a time period of one candidate being on the air for months and the other candidate not having been on the air yet isn't really the most accurate reflection of the electoral strength of a candidate.


    [ Parent ]
    Merkley's add is great too!

    Guru is right, none of the candidates had name ID, so the fact that one democrat got on TV and said hey im a dem running does pretty well upping the name id, but it also leads to a lot of soft support.  Merkley's got a great ad going up.


    [ Parent ]
    It is exactly like Bill Richardson in Iowa and New Hampshire
    He was the first to go on air, in the summer, and he polled a lot better because of it.  Come election day, he fell well short of where he had polled at the time, after the rest of the candidates got their hands into the tv markets.  

    [ Parent ]
    a few weeks??
    the election is OVER in 37 days. Voting begins in about 2 weeks.
    Novick went on the air briefly three months ago. And Merkley claims to have built the largest grassroots campaign in history. 11%? That's not grassroots, that's crabgrass.

    If it were one poll, your caution would be more meaningful. But it's FIVE. Novick is 5 for 5.  


    [ Parent ]
    Timeline it.
    You can't have one poll a month and say it's accurate.  You need multiple polls to vindicate one or contradict it.  This is the first poll I've seen on the Oregon senate race in awhile.  

    PA - Clinton is up 18 According to SUSA, and everyone else has it as a 6-8 point race.  Calls to question SUSA's poll.  


    [ Parent ]
    Novick has said some stupid things
    that have made me go from a supporter of his to a soft Merkly supporter but there is no reason to take sides in Expand the Map. Both are progressives and have lots of on the ground support. In Nebraska Kleeb is by far a stronger canidate and has more grassroots support.  

    [ Parent ]
    I support Merkley
    Just for the fact I think someone with legislative experience and a record is better when you have run against an incumbent Senator like Gordan Smith. However those comments about not support the democratic nominee by Novick are non-sense. Merkley and Novick are both good democrats on the issues, neither one of them could even be considered a conservative democrat. I don't get how you could advocate a outside party person over you nominee, disgraceful.

    Merkley I always thought was the better on paper candidate, however I think that sealed the deal, he should be the nominee.

    At this rate with the infighting in the Oregon Senate Primary Gordan Smith will wipe the floor with either one of them. This has been a Very disappointing race so far.

    "Democrats never agree on anything, that's why they're Democrats. If they agreed with each other, they would be Republicans."-Will Rogers


    [ Parent ]
    it's cause they're not true
    "However those comments about not support the democratic nominee by Novick are non-sense. "

    You're exactly right, they're nonsense. Watch the tape and you'll see he pledges to support Merkley if he's the nominee.  


    [ Parent ]
    Hey, let's go to the transcript
    Again, here is the full video.  The portion cited begins at 68:27.

    On who the candidates would vote for for Senate if they couldn't vote for themselves:

    Questioner: Speaker Merkley, if you could not vote for yourself, who would you vote for?

    Merkley: I'd vote for Steve.

    Questioner: Steve, who would you vote for?

    Novick: I'd vote for John Frohnmayer.

    Questioner: He's not in this room.  [Reminding Novick that he has to pick a fellow Democrat for the purposes of this question.]

    [Twelve-second-long dead silent pause.]

    Novick: I have a very hard time answering that.

    Questioner: You're gonna have to make a hell of a lot harder decisions when you're on the floor of the Senate.

    [Thirty-second-long dead silent pause.  Very uncomfortable.]

    Novick: I'd wait several weeks because I'd want to see whether Speaker Merkley continues to run the kind of campaign that he's run against me.  If he's, in fact, planning to attack me, as his poll already has as a pro-tax advocate, to continue to attack me for a 1998 comment about Ralph Nader, to attack me as--

    Questioner: OK, given what you know now.

    Novick: Given what I know now?  I would vote for Candy Neville.

    [...A few moments later, after Candy Neville's response to the question.]

    Questioner: You like Frohnmayer?  Why not a Democrat?

    Novick: I think that John Frohnmayer, with all due respect, has presented a thorough discussion of the major issues based on the {indecipherable word(s)} and his positions are extremely progressive.

    Questioner: Isn't that just another example of your being willing to throw away a vote, which you did with Nader?

    Novick: I was saying that- I am in the race- I was saying, if- I was interpreting it as what is my preference.  If, what's- I will vote for the Democratic nominee.  But if I could vote for the person I think is best qualified other than myself, I would vote for John Frohnmayer.  But, after the nomination is determined, I will vote for the Democratic nominee.

    Oh, yeah, that's a ringing endorsement of the Democratic Party from Steve Novick.  (Is it a "smear" if I'm quoting his actual words, torridjoe?)  He makes it sound like voting for a Democrat, if the Democrat in question is not him, is an arduous chore.  He makes it clear that the unenrolled Frohnmayer is his "preference" and, in his opinion, the "best qualified."  (Novick is, of course, entitled to think that, but it won't endear him to a lot of members of the Party whose nomination he's seeking.)  But he's willing to hold his nose and vote for a Democrat not named Steve Novick in order to appease all those Democrats voting in the Democratic primary who might get irked at him for not supporting the Party.


    [ Parent ]
    I don't know what to think
    I have no horse in this race and the only things I really know about it come from reading this blog.  I live in PA.  But two things struck out to me.  First, it sounds like Steve was answering the question thinking of how he would vote in the primary.  The question was: "If you could not vote for yourself who would you vote for?"  not specifying if the question was regarding to the primary or general election.  This line of thought was further pushed along when he was reminded he had to pick a fellow Democrat.  Second, he then explained that he seemed to be upset at the campaign run against him by Merkley he said Candy Neville, who I believe is a long shot candidate.  More sounds like his loyalty to the party should not be questioned but just his loyalty to Merkely.  Now if he was answering in terms of the general election.  His train of thought seemed very honest and natural, he is upset at Merkely for the campaign run against him, he would need time to get away and let the entire situation sink in and would come around to voting for the Democrat anyway.  Whoever wins, this seems like a very legitimate timeline of psychological events between the primary and general elections.  The same thing will probably happen with a lot of supporters of the loser between Clinton and Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    closed primary
    Novick either cant vote for Frohnmyer without renouncing the party to get an independent ballot or the indie is on the primary ballot which i think they aren't on the primary ballot.  I have never gotten an indie ballot in OR just a dem ballot so I don't know but either way Novick wasn't expressing a primary only sentiment.

    [ Parent ]
    Frohnmayer only at General
    There's no 'Independent' ballot in Oregon.

    All minor parties have nominating conventions rather than primary elections.  So sometime in the summer, the Independent Party will get together to nominate people for offices, and they'll have a slot on the General Eleciton ballot by virtue of being a minor party.

    So Steve was definitely referring to the General election.  


    [ Parent ]
    If your supposedly progressive opponent
    was planning to attack you as being a pro tax commie, as Merkley has, I'd hesitate too.

    What does unenrolled mean? Not filed? Cause I'm pretty sure Frohmmayer filed. But he might drop out if it's Novick. If it's merkley, he miight spoil it for smith.  


    [ Parent ]
    Really?
    Pro tax "commie"?  "Commie"?  Your accusations of mischaracterizations and self-righteousness ring awful hollow.

    Unenrolled, torridjoe, means not enrolled in a major Party.  It has nothing to do with his filing status as a candidate - it refers to his Party registration status as a voter.


    [ Parent ]
    Filing
    Minor parties don't file for anything in Oregon.  They are nominated by their party at a convention.  

    They're on the ballot by virtue of their nomination and qualification for office.

    But we Democrats shouldn't anticipate that Frohnmayer will drop out.  We need to play our strongest cards to mount the best campaign against Smith.

    Merkley can stay on message and gather the resources we need to take Smith on.


    [ Parent ]
    New LA Poll
    Surprised no comment on this Rasmussen poll of the LA Senate race.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Although they seem to think Haley Barbour is the Governor ...

    Matchup: Landrieu 55 Kennedy 39

    Favourables:

    Landrieu 65/32
    Kennedy 51/42


    Great news
    I think people jumped a little too quickly when they saw the fundraising numbers.  I don't think this will tighten until the NRSC plays their character assasination game.  But so will the DSCC.  So who knows how this will end up.  Thanks for catching this bit of news!

    [ Parent ]
    What gives?
    I couldn't figure out either when I read the full poll from Rasmussen why the hell they were asking Louisiana voters what their impression of Mississippi's governor was? Wouldn't they want to poll Jindal?

    Anyhow, as I posted over at SSP where I read about this first, THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS! Hell these numbers aren't too far off from what Lautenberg has polled against his challengers as of late. I was previously debating if LA should be "LeansDEM" or "Toss-up" but now it's more like is it "LeansDEM" or "LikelyDEM" as a contest.

    She's got the money, seniority, higher favorable/unfavorables, double-digit poll lead (Rasmussen isn't exactly favorable to DEMs), and incumbecy with winning twice in Louisiana. Let's hope with all that "mo" that Mary can bring this home easier than we had originally expected.

    KELL


    [ Parent ]
    This is terrific
    Thanks for the heads up, kieran!

    [ Parent ]
    16-point lead.
    I'm not happy with this poll. It's too close for me to think it is completely safe; if Kennedy campaigns hard, he could close the gap. However, it's not close enough for the Republicans to dump a whole lot of money on this race at the expense of races like Alaska, Oregon, Maine, etc.  

    [ Parent ]
    That poll is incredible
    A 16 point deficit is their best hope for a pickup by a pollster that usually skews rightward. Sucks to be the Republican Party right now.

    "Democrats never agree on anything, that's why they're Democrats. If they agreed with each other, they would be Republicans."-Will Rogers

    [ Parent ]
    Yep.
    At this point they might have a better chance in New Jersey, but only if Lautenberg retires / is defeated in the primary.  

    [ Parent ]
    No race dissapoints me more than Alabama.
    I really wanted to see Sessions gone-number one on my wish list when the cycle started.  If Ron Sparks had run, does anyone doubt he'd be kicking Sessions' ass from the gulf coast to Tennessee over this?  Instead, we have a candidate who can't be bothered to actually campaign...what a waste.

    Check out Blue Arkansas:
    http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/


    Amen
    I think she could have been a decent canidate if she had, well, been a canidate. But it seems as if she just wants to put out her name so she make more people know who she is. If Sparks had run it would have been a uphill climb but also a real race.

    [ Parent ]
    Right.
    It still would have been tough with Sparks, but the opening presented here would have caused it to heat way, way, up really fast.  Who knows, maybe Shelby retires in 2010 in Sparks goes for that seat.  Or better yet, Sessions legal issues get worse and he's forced to resign, then we'd have two open seats in Alabama to put into play.

    Check out Blue Arkansas:
    http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/


    [ Parent ]
    Saturday Round-Up | 48 comments
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