Alaska: A new Research 2000 poll commissioned by Daily Kos sees Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading scandalicious Ted Stevens 48-43. Kos also has Stevens' pollster confirming their camp's concern over Stevens' standing in Alaska. Really great stuff.
New Mexico: New Survey USA numbers see Congressman Tom Udall obliterating both Republican Congresscritters, leading Steve Pearce 60-36 and Heather Wilson 61-35. Hot damn!
Maine: While the print media in Maine seems to be heavily in Susan Collins' pocket, this piece gives me hope that Maine's TV news may be more attentive. You should really take the time to watch the entire segment:
Democratic Congressman Tom Allen continues to highlight Collins' failure to stand up to the Bush administration. And all Susan Collins responds with is dismissiveness. I suspect Maine voters won't be as dismissive. Meanwhile, you can add the Farm Bill to the list of issues on which Tom Allen and Olympia Snowe are on one side and Susan Collins stands alone on the other. ME-Dems' Communications Director Rebecca Pollard takes a thorough look at how Collins' vote here has hurt Maine's farmers and families.
Kay Hagan has more room to move up in her match with Elizabeth Dole than Dole does. 55% of undecided voters in that race are Democrats, while just 24% are Republicans. If Hagan can shore up her standing with her own party, that's an even closer race than our poll showed.
Very, very promising.
Colorado: Commemorating Bob Schaffer's "Mount Macaca moment," the DSCC has released a bitingly satirical jab at Schaffer:
The DSCC has also offered up the Bob Schaffer Geography Quiz. Seriously, who is wasting their money contributing to Schaffer's campaign anymore?
Minnesota: Al Franken has brought even more political muscle onto his 2008 Senate campaign: Stephanie Schriock, manager of Senator Jon Tester's successful ousting of Conrad Burns in Montana last cycle.
Need more proof that conservative windbags supply themselves with nothing more than substance-free talking points without actually possessing any real knowledge of what they're talking about?
Kudos to Tweety. Usually he annoys the heck out of me. I'd like to see more of this in the future.
Colorado: Backwards Bob Schaffer officially can do nothing right. Schaffer, who is from Ohio, released his first TV ad with him standing in front of a photo of a mountain while proclaiming his deep ties to Colorado. Only, the thing is that the mountain in his ad (for Colorado's Senate seat) is Mt. McKinley in Alaska. Schaffer's camp pulled the ad and says a corrected ad will be re-released soon. Time after time, Schaffer continually embarrasses himself. After his multiple attempts at entering the Senate race, his possible votes-for-contributions scandal, and his Abramoff-sweatshop scandal, and now this, I honestly can't fathom how Schaffer manages to climb out of bed every morning.
To see it done right, Congressman Mark Udall has released his first TV ad, on achieving a sensible energy policy, and it's a winner:
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell is up to his two most common tricks in the U.S. Senate: obstructionism and pork barrel spending. First, McConnell nearly shuts down the Senate as he tries to shortchange veterans in a truly sinister fashion. (Really, McConnell is not too far removed from a cartoon villain at this point.) Then, McConnell tries to sneak into the Farm Bill a tax break worth $60 to $70 million for racehorse owners. Pork for the uber-wealthy Kentucky Derby set. These antics demonstrating that he does not care about working-class Kentuckians may contribute to his continued sub-50% approval numbers. The latest Herald-Leader poll clocks McConnell's approve-disapprove at 48-44. Further, he only has a twelve-point lead on his Democratic opposition, leading Bruce Lunsford 48-36 and Greg Fischer 47-35.
Maine: Collins Watch gives us a two-fer. First, we have Susan Collins' latest hypocrisy - this time on tax breaks for Big Oil. She offers rhetoric criticizing such tax breaks, but, of course, voted in favor of Dick Cheney's energy bill. Second, we see that Susan Collins has raised about three-fourths of her campaign funds from out-of-state and that she has raised far more from business PACs than from Mainers.
"Simply put, let me tell you, Elizabeth Dole was just ranked the 93rd least effective senator in Washington," Hagan said to the laughing crowd of local Democrats as she proudly stated that she was recently ranked as one of the 10 most effective state senators in North Carolina. "And Elizabeth Dole votes with President Bush 92 percent of the time. I will guarantee you are not representing the interests if you are voting straight-party like that with Bush all the time. That is not what North Carolinians want."
Hagan is effective and independent. Dole is ineffective and a Bush-rubber-stamp. The choice is very clear. (HT: From the Roots)
Alaska: A right-leaning third Party candidate is joining the fray as Alaskan Independence Party member Bob Bird enters the 2008 Senate race. With ties to Ron Paul and Pat Buchanan and the support of the Constitution Party, any votes Bird amasses will likely come from the far-right, shaving votes from Republican Ted Stevens.
West Virginia: Senator Jay Rockefeller's Republican opponent will be Jay Wolfe. If that name sounds familiar, it's probably because Wolfe was Rockefeller's GOP opponent in 2002, when Rocky crushed Wolfe 63-37.
Several Republican Senators in their 70's say they're too old to be Vice President. I wonder what those Republican Senators in their 70's would say about being too old to be President.
Nebraska: Three words: Congratulations Scott Kleeb!
Here are the 2008 Senate primary results, with 85% reporting:
Democrat
Republican
Scott Kleeb 69%
Mike Johanns 78%
Tony Raimondo 25%
Pat Flynn 22%
Kleeb coasts to victory over prominent challenger Tony Raimondo while almost one-in-four Nebraska Republicans rebuke Mike Johanns with a vote for unknown Pat Flynn. And kudos to Raimondo, who sounded a classy tone as he conceded to Kleeb:
"Scott Klebb [sic] is a delightful young man," Raimondo said in an interview. "Scott is just a terrific candidate and will be the best candidate running for Senate that will change Washington."
Celebrate Kleeb's victory by contributing to his campaign via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. And get excited over the vibrant Scott Kleeb taking on the sleep-inducing Mike Johanns:
Mississippi: Democrat Travis Childers' outstanding eight point victory in Tuesday's special election in the R+10 PVI MS-01 Congressional district is a terrific omen for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove's 2008 Senate campaign.
Oregon: Disingenuous Republican Gordon Smith's most recent election year conversion is on Big Oil: he takes hundreds of thousands of Big Oil dollars and does their bidding dutifully; and then only offers the mildest of rhetorical peeps against Big Oil in his election year. His record is atrocious, and even a kid can see that. That's probably why Smith is continuing to attack Speaker Jeff Merkley with not just one but two misleading and divisive radio attack ads.
Even self-proclaimed "cynic" Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid sees us competitive in about a dozen Senate seats in 2008 and expects that we'll pick up four or five seats.
For your satirical amusement, here are two of Roadblock Republicans' most recent political cartoons:
You are the best readers in the blogosphere! State Senator Kay Hagan has broken the $500 mark on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. Thanks so much for your generosity. Because these contributions go directly toward ousting Liddy Dole, I can only urge you to chip in a little further if you can. (I'll also note that Larry LaRocco is a mere $61 from the $2,500 mark.)
That said, momentum is with Merkley among a number of key groups: Among men, Novick had led by 10, today trails by 2. Among voters age 18 to 49, Novick had led by 5, today trails by 2. Among voters 50+, Novick and Merkley had tied; today, Merkley leads by 7. Merkley and Novick are effectively even in the greater Portland area. Merkley leads by 13 in the rest of the state. Among the 43% of voters who have already mailed their ballot, Merkley leads by 6; among those who are likely to return a ballot, Merkley leads by 3.
Senate Guru has endorsed Merkley and thinks he'd be the strongest Democrat against Republican Gordon Smith.
North Carolina: On the heels of that terrific Rasmussen poll that put NC-Sen in a dead heat between State Senator Kay Hagan and the contemptible Elizabeth Dole, Public Policy Polling's latest numbers also see a very tight race, giving Dole a small lead, 48-43. PPP breaks it down:
Hagan is winning big among voters whose top issues are the economy (51-39) and the war (57-36.) Those are the biggest issues for voters in the state, but Dole leads by even larger margins on wedge issues like immigration (89-8) and moral and family values (82-10).
Hagan is running competitively in every region of the state except the mountains, where she did little or no advertising during the primary, and the southeastern part of the state.
All Hagan needs to take down Dole is the resources to be competitive in paid media. So help Hagan out by chipping in on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.
Nebraska: With Nebraska's 2008 Democratic Senate primary to be decided in the next 24 hours, we see a breakdown of contrasts between former Republican Tony Raimondo and proud Democrat Scott Kleeb that offer much perspective on how we ought to hope the results come down. (Go Kleeb!)
Kentucky: With the 2008 Democratic Senate primary a week away, the poll numbers seem to have stabilized with Bruce Lunsford in the low-40s and Greg Fischer in the low-20s.
"It's pretty clear to me that the Democratic agenda is to turn us into France," the Kentucky Republican told The Washington Times in an unusually blunt interview at his office in the Capitol.
My point: Romney and McConnell are both dolts.
Virginia: I don't even know if this qualifies as news at this point. Popular former Governor Mark Warner holds a large 55-37 lead over unpopular former Gov. Jim Gilmore in the latest Rasmussen Reports numbers.
New Mexico: In what must be taken as a big political blow to Republican Heather Wilson, retiring Pete Domenici will not endorse in the 2008 Republican Senate primary. Domenici is Wilson's mentor and she was probably counting on his support. Domenici and Wilson also share the same questionable ethics.
Open Left's Bowers offers a collection of recent polling data on the 2008 Senate races providing quite the overview. Recent numbers suggest that nine Democratic pick-ups is a very reasonable outcome.
The Hill asked all 97 Senators not running for President if they'd consider the VP slot for their Party's Presidential nominee. Among the best responses:
Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) "No, I can already preside over the Senate, and I do not enjoy spending a lot of time at 'undisclosed locations.'"
Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) "I would say 'No, Hillary.'"
Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) "Are you kidding? Every senator would accept that offer. My guess is that almost every senator looks at themselves in the mirror in the morning and sees either a future president or vice president."
Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) "No, I'd have Jon Stewart stand in for me. Jon Stewart. That's my guy."
And the best answer:
Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) "I plan to stick with my current job until I get the hang of it."
{Update: We're up to $335! You've responded amazingly. Can we get to $500? Just another $165. We can do it! If you can swing it, send Hagan $25 right now via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.}
You read that right. The Senate Guru is going on strike for Kay Hagan! Currently, on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, Hagan is at $50 raised. Well, the Guru will not write another post until Hagan has crossed the $300 mark. That's right! The Guru is on strike until the community contributes another $250 to Hagan.
Contributions to Hagan will be money very well spent. Hagan's primary victory last Tuesday gave her a great deal of momentum; and, the most recent poll actually sees her in a statistical dead heat with (actually, with a one point lead over) the contemptible Elizabeth Dole. Hagan is well-positioned to make the North Carolina Senate race a top tier battle. But she needs our help with raising the resources necessary to cut through Dole's spin.
We can help make this a top tier race. I feel strongly enough about that that I'm willing to go on strike until we reach the $300 mark for her on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. C'mon, whether it's ten wonderful people giving $25 each or one generous soul chipping in $250, I want to see the Senate Guru community step up to help Hagan and put Dole on notice.
If you have a few bucks left in your wallet at the end of the weekend, send it to a terrific Democratic candidate for Senate via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.
Nebraska: Here is Scott Kleeb's closing ad in advance of Tuesday's Senate primary in Nebraska. Drives the campaign home, I think.
Massachusetts: The below image is part of the banner graphic for Republican Congressional loser Jim Ogonowski's 2008 Senate campaign website:
In the graphic, Ogonowski appears to be wearing his military uniform, and wearing it specifically to appear on the campaign website (i.e. for political purposes). I raise the following question because I sincerely don't know the answer and wonder if a commenter might be more conversant in military regulations. Is Ogonowski violating military regulations by wearing his uniform for his campaign website? I'll highlight the following from Army Regulation 670-1: Wear and Appearance of Army Uniforms and Insignia (in PDF):
j. Wearing Army uniforms is prohibited in the following situations:
(1) In connection with the furtherance of any political or commercial interests, or when engaged in off-duty civilian employment.
The regulation also notes:
f. In addition to the occasions for wear listed above, retired personnel are authorized to wear the uniform only on the following occasions. Uniforms for these occasions are restricted to service and dress uniforms; the BDU and physical fitness uniforms will not be worn.
(1) While attending military funerals, memorial services, weddings, inaugurals, and other occasions of ceremony.
(2) Attending parades on national or state holidays, or other patriotic parades or ceremonies in which any active or reserve United States military unit is taking part. Wear of the Army uniform at any other time, or for any other purpose than stated above is prohibited.
So, any military regulation experts out there: is Ogonowski violating military regs for donning his military uniform for his website image, which would appear to fall under the category of the furtherance of a political interest?
Terry McAuliffe's Meet the Press appearance this morning provides us with possibly the most awkwardly backfiring attempted pander of the 21st century so far. I don't get why the Clinton campaign keeps trotting him out as a chief surrogate. I don't know anybody that has found anything he has said to be at all convincing.
North Carolina: Holy freakin' cow! A new Rasmussen Reports poll sees State Senator Kay Hagan with an albeit statistically insignificant lead (you read that right - a lead!) on Republican Elizabeth Dole, 48-47. Wow. A statistical dead heat is one heck of a primary victory bump. Very simply, we can oust Dole. Contribute to Hagan via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page now to help. (HT: andtun1)
Oregon: The latest Rasmussen Reports numbers see Republican Gordon Smith's lead against his Democratic challengers crumbling. Smith is in a statistical dead heat against Speaker Jeff Merkley, 45-42. Smith also has a six-point lead on Steve Novick, 47-41. Any illusion of security enjoyed by any Senate Republicans is quickly eroding. Smith feels threatened, and given the closeness of the race, feels more threatened by Merkley, so what does Smith do? Why, Smith launches a misleading attack ad against Merkley, of course. Smith has taken loads of lobbyist money and has voted in favor of corporate interests time and time again. And he's scared of having to defend his record. It will be awfully fun to watch Smith squirm in the general election debates.
New Hampshire: Popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen wants to chart a new course in Iraq and Afghanistan. Something tells me that Sprintin' John Sununu is perfectly comfortable with the current, George W. Bush-charted course.
"He's been in Washington 24 years, and he's passed eight pieces of legislation," Ogonowski said. ...
Kerry's campaign has released a list of 13 bills the campaign said Kerry has authored and has seen passed since 2001.
It is remarkable that Senator John Kerry has managed to pass a baker's dozen of bills in an era marked by a Republican majority suffocating Democratic voices and then a Republican minority breaking filibuster records and obstructing anything that moves. It is, however, unremarkable, that a Republican would lie about Senator Kerry's record.
Even conservative race trackers see at least a three seat Democratic net gain in the Senate in 2008, as Election Projection currently predicts a Democratic pick-up of Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Colorado, and a Republican pick-up of Louisiana. I consider a three seat net the absolutely bare minimum.
Texas: A few days ago, Rasmussen Reports said that the 2008 Senate race in Texas between Bush-rubber-stamp John Cornyn and State Representative & Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega is only a four-point race, 47-43. Well, a new Research 2000 poll commissioned for Daily Kos agrees that it's only a four-point race, 48-44. This is awesome. Further, the new poll finds that one in every four Texas Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Cornyn. Oh, and Cornyn-anchor George W. Bush's approve-disapprove is clocked at 37-63. In other news, Republicans are already itching to get started in the event that Kay Bailey Hutchison does not run for re-election in 2010 so that she can run for Governor.
Maine: Democratic Congressman Tom Allen has made it crystal clear that he won't support more money for the Iraq War without a responsible plan for withdrawal. Republican Susan Collins, however, is happy to stick around endlessly.
Risch does not speak for Idaho voters, and he should not pretend to be doing so in refusing to participate in the only candidate debate to be televised statewide before Idaho's primary election. ...
Risch's campaign talks as if that is what voters want. In a letter to the League of Women Voters rejecting its invitation, Risch's son, Jason, said the live debate's allowance of interchanges among candidates "is unhelpful and unappreciated by the viewers."
Accounts too numerable to cite suggest that Jim Risch does not represent Idaho's values or interests. Risch represents only his own interests. Risch is rapidly approaching Spineless Saxby Chambliss on the list of Republicans I most want to see lose in 2008.
Oregon: A new ad from the DSCC slams Republican Gordon Smith for his ties to special interests like Big Oil and his support for tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. Meanwhile, the 21st Century Democrats is a national grassroots organization "that supports candidates who fight for working families in the tradition of Paul Wellstone." And they endorsed Speaker Jeff Merkley in the 2008 Senate primary. Comically, Steve Novick has earned the endorsement of RINO Watch. Draw your own conclusions.
Oklahoma: The DSCC is quite serious about expanding the map and competing in typically red states. For instance, they'll be committing as many as ten staffers to Oklahoma alone to aid State Senator Andrew Rice in his bid to oust Jim "In Denial" Inhofe.
Louisiana: Disappointing news on many levels. In the case of Republican "family values" hypocrite David Vitter frequenting prostitutes, the Senate Ethics Committee says that since they didn't see it, it's not a foul. Unbelievably craven. According to the Committee's letter:
The Committee also wishes to make clear that this decision to dismiss this matter without prejudice should not be taken as personal approbation or acceptance by any of the members of the Committee of the kind of conduct alleged in this matter. In fact, if proven to be true, the Members of the Committee would find the alleged conduct of solicitation for prostitution to be reprehensible.
And you know, it's almost as if the Democrats, you know, it's like they're content with losing because to pull out, to withdraw from this war is losing. No question about it.
Are Dole's contemptible remarks not enough to rile you up? How about Dole's horribly anti-workingclass record? She has voted against hikes to the minimum wages, against unemployment benefits for Hurricane Katrina victims, for tax incentives for offshore companies, and she voted to make it harder for victims of pay discrimination to seek legal redress. Now are you pissed? Head over to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and contribute to Kay Hagan.
Oregon: Demonstrating both candidates' differing levels of commitment to a unified Democratic Party, Speaker Jeff Merkley's campaign very smartly has gathered a collection of Steve Novick's greatest hits bashing fellow Democrats at Novick Insults Democrats.com. Included are Novick's attacks on Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, as well as Oregon Congresswoman Darlene Hooley and others. For instance, Novick has called New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson "a shameless panderer." If Novick's acolytes complain that these many, many attacks on Democrats are all taken out of context, then I'd like to know in what context "shameless panderer" isn't an attack.
Nebraska: From an e-mail press release from Scott Kleeb's Senate campaign:
Tonight, Democrat Scott Kleeb will take the stage for an unusual event. After agreeing to discuss the issues with Mr. Kleeb tonight, Tony Raimondo abruptly backed out of the debate.
The Douglas County Democratic Party sponsored tonight's "debate," which will air live on CTI 22/Qwest 69 at 6pm. During the hour-long, live telecast, Mr. Kleeb will take questions from both moderator Bill King and Omaha residents.
I have long believed that this is exactly what should happen if one challenger backs out of a debate - that the remaining challenger(s) should be given the debate time as a forum for them to communicate their message(s) to the electorate. Tony Raimondo wants to bail on debates? Fine. Scott Kleeb gets to connect directly with more Nebraskans.
With all 100 counties in North Carolina having reported their primary results, State Senator Kay Hagan is the overwhelming choice of North Carolina Democrats to take on absentee Elizabeth Dole in November. Hagan has taken over 60% of the primary vote, followed by businessman Jim Neal at 18% and Marcus Williams at 12.6%.
Hagan is well-positioned to challenge Dole. A Research 2000 poll from about a week ago commissioned by Daily Kos sees Dole leading Hagan by only a seven-point margin, 48-41. Given that Dole is presumably at maximum name ID and that she rarely touches 50% in any approval poll (that isn't commissioned by her campaign or her partisans), she has little room to grow. On the other hand, Hagan is still expanding her name ID beyond her State Senate district. And polling indicates that her paid media campaign is incredibly effective. This won't turn into a Tier 1 race overnight, but every indication is that this is a strong Tier 2 race with much potential.
For a third consecutive term, The North Carolina Center for Public Policy Research (NCCPPR) today has named State Senator and U.S. Senate Candidate Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) as one of their top-10 most effective state senators.
I'll also remind readers that among the netroots' biggest victories are Southern moderates like Jim Webb of Virginia. And I'm not the only one likening Hagan to Webb, as Real Clear Politics asks "Hagan The Next Webb?":
Hagan has raised an impressive $1.52 million, much of which she has spent on making the primary with Neal a blowout. And trailing by just seven points in public polls is on par with Webb and others from the 2006 cycle; a Democratic poll taken in late June, 2006, showed Webb trailing Allen by a 46%-39% margin, and a Mason-Dixon poll in late July had Allen leading by a whopping 16 points. And Hagan's campaign brags that only Missouri's Claire McCaskill and Ohio's Sherrod Brown have raised more money through the First Quarter of 2006.
Beating Dole, a well-known incumbent, will be difficult. But Hagan starts out with relatively high name recognition -- 44% view her favorably, while just 25% view her unfavorably and 31% have no opinion. Dole has the same 44% favorable rating, though 41% say they view her unfavorably, which could be a problem for the incumbent down the line. Barring any mistakes, Dole will remain the favorite heading into the fall. At the moment, though, Hagan looks poised to capitalize on any slip up, and there's a long way to go before November.
Hagan is currently in better shape than Webb was at this point. And Dole's unfavorables are far higher than Hagan's. While Dole does enjoy a money advantage, a $3 million bankroll isn't what it used to be, especially when the DSCC has a $20 milllion cash-on-hand advantage over the NRSC with which to aid Hagan's bid.
In short, Dole is vulnerable. Her disapproval is relatively high and her approval seems to have a ceiling in the mid-to-high 40s. Meanwhile, Hagan's messaging appears to be very effective, and she has a great deal of upside. And it's only a seven-point race with about six months until Election Day.
All Hagan needs is the resources to stay competitive. To help on that front, State Senator Kay Hagan, the Democratic nominee for Senate in 2008 against Elizabeth Dole, has been added to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.
Please consider a contribution to Hagan - it's a step toward kicking Elizabeth Dole out of the Senate, and that should be reward enough.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was on The Daily Show last night and commented on the historic Republican obstructionism America is currently suffering through:
I think we've been in a holding pattern since the Democrats took the majority. I think this was a shock to the Republicans and that's the reason they broke the filibuster record in ten months for a whole Congress for two years.
With all 100 counties in North Carolina