| DSCC Chair Bob Menendez has been laying out to the media the Democrats' take on the Senate 2010 lay of the land, and Hotline On Call, CNN, and Salon's War Room blog all have write-ups of the DSCC's initial look at the 2010 picture. Senator Menendez offered a few key items:
1) The DSCC expects to fully back appointed Senators running for re-election, with some hedging on Illinois' Roland Burris. Good news, though, for New York's Kirsten Gillibrand and Colorado's Michael Bennet, both of whom may face primary challengers. Clearly, Democratic leaders would prefer Burris to retire as gracefully as he can.
2) The DSCC is initially focusing its offense on nine target states: the Republican retirement states of Florida, Kansas, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio; and the vulnerable Republican states of Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Senator Menendez is clearly pleased with Robin Carnahan and Paul Hodes carrying the Democratic banner in Missouri and New Hampshire, respectively; and, he has high expectations if Kansas' Governor Kathleen Sebelius runs (as many of us hope). Says Menendez, "Clearly, if Gov. Sebelius were to run, she wins." Senator Menendez also pointed to political trends in Pennsylvania working against Arlen Specter, and suggested that Democrats will field a strong challenger in North Carolina following now-Senator Kay Hagan's impressive 2008 victory.
Also note that the prospect of an opening in Texas (due to the possible resignation of Kay Bailey Hutchison to focus on her gubernatorial bid) is not missing from the DSCC's radar screen. Says Hotline:
And finally, a sign of the chairman's confidence, perhaps, is his willingness to pitch Texas as a possible get for Democrats, should Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison run for governor, as is likely.
3) It is noted that, besides the Democrats who have departed the Senate for the Executive Branch, there are no expected Democratic retirements from the Senate.
4) Although the focus begins on those nine states, no state will be ruled out if the right candidate comes along and the right political dynamics present themselves. Salon quotes Senator Menendez:
"No place is a bridge too far," New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, the new chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, boasted to reporters at a briefing today. "One of the things that the last cycle taught us is that expanding the map is extremely important."
Senate Guru is all for "expanding the map" - heck, it's what our ActBlue page is named.
5) Senator Menendez posits that the Republican Party not changing its politics or policies will have the dual impact of depressing both voter interest and candidate recruiting (as well as, I would add, donor outreach, hopefully). Hotline quotes Senator Menendez:
During a noon briefing with reporters at the Democratic National Committee, Menendez added: "The early evidence seems to show that Republicans haven't changed their brand."
And because of that, Menendez said, solid Republican candidates aren't opting to run for Senate next cycle. Menendez mentioned former Gov. Jeb Bush, who decided not to run for the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Mel Martinez.
"It's difficult to energize voters when your candidates are reluctant to run," Menendez said.
Politics indeed has a snowball effect - but it also has a pendulum effect. One of the questions that will determine the results of Election Day 2010 is whether the Democrats' snowball of momentum still has enough energy to stave off a pro-Republican swingback of the pendulum. The degree to which voters feel the impact of President Obama's economic stimulus bill may largely make clear whether 2010 will be more snowball or more pendulum. The more snowball we get, the more of those 9+ Democratic targets will come up blue on Election Day 2010.
UPDATE: MyDD runs through Politico's story on Menendez's comments and focuses on the message framing that Menendez is laying down:
During the news conference, Menendez took some anti-Republican messaging out for a spin:
...Menendez called Senate Republicans "do-nothings."
"They're basically sticking to their old brand, the Bush brand," said Menendez. "They are betting against President Obama and the economic recovery he is trying to create."
I love it, framing opposition to Obama as a. opposition to economic recovery and b. fidelity to Bush. This is gonna be a fun two years. |
