Kentucky: New Research 2000 polling sees a swath of statistical dead heats in KY-Sen:
Dems v. Bunning Jim Bunning (R) 45
Ben Chandler (D) 42
Jim Bunning (R) 46
Jack Conway (D) 42
Jim Bunning (R) 45
Crit Luallen (D) 41
Jim Bunning (R) 46
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 42
Dems v. Grayson Trey Grayson (R) 42
Ben Chandler (D) 42
Trey Grayson (R) 42
Jack Conway (D) 41
Trey Grayson (R) 42
Crit Luallen (D) 42
Trey Grayson (R) 43
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 42
Favorable-unfavorable numbers Crit Luallen 53-25 (Net +28)
Ben Chandler 52-28 (Net +24)
Jack Conway 48-27 (Net +21)
Trey Grayson 39-18 (Net +21)
Daniel Mongiardo 50-40 (Net +10)
Barack Obama 47-44 (Net +3)
Jim Bunning 41-47 (Net -6)
There is, in fact, good news for Jim Bunning in this poll (which is also good news for Democrats who don't want Bunning to retire). Bunning can point to this poll and say that he still matches up more strongly against Democrats than a stand-in like Trey Grayson does. That said, Bunning is also eminently beatable, given that he only leads Dems by the margin of error and has much weaker favorability numbers.
New Hampshire: As TPM's Marshall and Blue Hampshire's elwood point out, Commerce Secretary-designate and still-Senator Judd Gregg's recusal on all votes pertaining to President Obama's economic stimulus bill is tantamount to supporting the filibuster of the bill as 60 cloture votes are needed, period. Gregg does have two honorable (or, at least, fundamentally sensible) alternative actions to effectively supporting the filibuster. First, he could vote for cloture and still recuse himself from a vote on the bill itself - since a cloture vote is not a vote necessarily in support of the bill but rather simply a vote to move to a vote on the bill (in other words, it's a vote against obstruction). Second, he could immediately resign his seat so that his successor could fill it, which makes sense if he's not going to vote on the biggest issue of the day, anyway. But, no. Instead, Gregg takes the action that would most undermine his new boss' number one legislative priority.
Florida: GOP Gov. Charlie Crist reiterated that he will wait until after the completion of the current state legislative session in May before deciding on a 2010 Senate bid. The big impact of this is that a lot of Republicans considering a bid themselves will be forced to tread water as they would likely not want to face a primary against Crist (nor would Florida grassroots activists, fundraisers, and power brokers want to commit to another Republican if Crist does get in). Announced Democratic candidates like Congressman Kendrick Meek should use this time to build up a healthy fundraising edge while Republicans remain frozen in place.
Louisiana: The Draft Stormy effort, to encourage adult film star Stormy Daniels to challenge prostitute-lovin' David Vitter in the 2010 Senate race, is picking up steam. At right is the video of news coverage of the effort on New Orleans' local ABC affiliate.
Ohio: Rumors are popping up that Governor Ted Strickland is being considered as a possible Secretary of Health & Human Services. If such an appointment came to pass, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher would ascend to the Governorship and likely lead him to focus on a 2010 Governor run rather than his current 2010 Senate bid. Stay tuned for developments.
