| Once Delaware's Ted Kaufman and appointed successors for President-elect Barack Obama and Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton are sworn in, the 100-member U.S. Senate will include 40 members who have been a U.S. Senator for less than six-and-a-half years. Even with the seemingly very high rate of turnover in recent years, the first Retirement/Resignation Watch of the 2010 cycle includes more than a dozen entries.
The below list runs in order of likelihood to retire/resign, with the most likely to retire/resign at the top. The number to the right of each entry's name is what the person's age will be on Election Day 2010.
One of the key takeaways from this list: John Cornyn, the new Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, will have his work cut out for him to limit Republican retirements and resignations, which could total as many as ten by the time Election Day 2010 rolls around.
1) Mel Martinez (R-FL), 64
With low approval ratings and facing an uphill re-election bid, unpopular Republican Martinez announced on December 2 that he would not run for re-election.
2) Ted Kaufman (D-DE), 71
Upon the announcement by Delaware Governor Ruth Ann Minner that Kaufman would be appointed to succeed Vice President-elect Joe Biden, Kaufman made it clear that he will only serve for two years, holding the seat until a successor is elected in 2010.
3) Sam Brownback (R-KS), 54
Though Brownback has not made a formal announcement since Election Day 2008, he has long suggested that he would retire at the end of this term; and, it is rumored that he is considering a 2010 gubernatorial bid. Republican Congresscritters Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are already preparing Senate bids, so Brownback is as good as out.
4) Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), 67
Hutchison recently announced the formation of a gubernatorial campaign exploratory committee. If Hutchison is to seriously challenge sitting Republican Governor Rick Perry, she would ostensibly have to resign her Senate seat so that she could campaign full time (and not be attacked by her gubernatorial opposition for leaving Texas with only one Senator - and, with that Senator being John Cornyn, she could be attacked for leaving Texas without any real Senate representation). With Texas having a relatively early filing period, we could expect a Hutchison resignation before the end of 2009 if she is truly serious about a 2010 gubernatorial bid, and all indications are that she is.
5) Jim Bunning (R-KY), 79
Bunning was believed to be in poor mental health during his last re-election campaign six years ago. Nevertheless, he is making statements indicating that he has every intention of running for re-election in 2010. That said, he will be 79 on Election Day 2010, and an old 79 at that. Further, Republican Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson is on deck to run for Senate if Bunning pulls out. As such, Democrats should hope that Bunning does move forward with a re-election bid given his low approval ratings. Nevertheless, I'm skeptical that he'll actually run again.
6) Christopher "Kit" Bond (R-MO), 71
Bond saw his Republican former Senate colleague Jim Talent lose to Claire McCaskill in 2006. Then, Bond saw Republicans lose the Missouri Governorship in 2008. Though Missouri is a purple state, and may even be a bit more red than blue, it has definitely shifted bluer since Bond's last re-election bid. Further, Bond faces the prospect of squaring off against Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, who is not only a fellow statewide elected official and a scion of one of Missouri's most well-known political families, but, in her 2008 Secretary of State re-election bid, Carnahan earned more votes than any Missourian ever has in a single election. Ever. With connections to disgraced Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff coming to light, Bond may just opt to retire on his own terms and enjoy his seventies in a retirement he chose rather than end his career in defeat. I personally think he'll retire.
7) Arlen Specter (R-PA), 80
Specter has suggested that he intends to run for re-election, but he is rapidly approaching 80 and has had well-document health problems in recent years. Perhaps he's waiting to see the strength of his opposition before making a final decision. If Club for Growth President, former Congressman, and 2004 Specter primary opponent Pat Toomey is serious about another primary challenge, and if either Congressperson Allyson Schwartz or Patrick Murphy polls particularly well against him, he may forgo a strenuous primary and general election campaign in favor of retirement. I see this as truly 50-50.
8) Tom Coburn (R-OK), 62
Coburn has been public about his indecisiveness over running for a second term. However, given his relative youth (for the U.S. Senate, anyway) and his zeal over cutting any and all government spending, I'd wager that he'll run for re-election.
9) George Voinovich (R-OH), 74
Similar to Kit Bond, Voinovich has seen his state shift bluer as his Republican former Senate colleague Mike DeWine lost to Sherrod Brown in 2006 and then Barack Obama won Ohio's electoral votes in 2008. With Ohio's deep Democratic bench, Voinovich will face strong opposition. The only question is whether Voinovich would prefer to retire on his own terms rather than have to hustle, now in his 70's, and risk going out on a loss - a significant risk recent polling suggests.
10) Daniel Inouye (D-HI), 86
On Election Day 2010, Inouye will be closer to age 90 than age 80. So there you go. Nevertheless, it seems to be taken for granted that he'll run again.
11) Chuck Grassley (R-IA), 77
Grassley said last year that he'd run again in 2010. It's also been suggested that we should expect a retirement. Maybe if Grassley thinks he'll have to hustle, he'd rather retire than spend another six years in the minority. The Catch-22 is that it is unlikely any top tier opposition, like former Governor Tom Vilsack or Congressman Bruce Braley, would run against Grassley, preferring to keep their powder dry for a future open seat.
12) Ted Kennedy (D-MA), 78
Kennedy is receiving treatment for brain cancer, with which he was diagnosed after a very scary episode this past summer. Though he seems to be managing well of late, he did very recently cede his seat on the Judiciary Committee. He said it was so that he could focus primarily on health care issues, vis a vis his Chairmanship of the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee. The subtext is that the liberal lion of the Senate is reducing his portfolio. If his health, heaven forbid, were to take a turn for the worse, or - on a more positive note - if significant advances in health care reform were achieved in 2009, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that we might see Kennedy opt for retirement and resign his seat in advance of Election Day 2010, though I very much hope that this isn't the case.
13) Barack Obama's appointed successor (D-IL), ?
I continue to surmise that scandal-ridden Governor Rod Blagojevich must appoint a placeholder to succeed Barack Obama in order to allow for a competitive 2010 Democratic Senate primary free from his toxic association. If that happens, we will of course have an open seat in 2010. We should know by the end of the month, if not sooner.
14) Judd Gregg (R-NH), 63
I wouldn't have thought that Gregg belonged on such a list as this; but, apparently, there is some speculation that Gregg will hang it up despite his relatively young age (again, for the U.S. Senate). Perhaps the allure of cashing in on K Street to facilitate his eventual Golden Years (or other opportunities altogether) is stronger than another six years in the minority. John Cornyn would be wise to check in with him early and often.
15) Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), 74
Other than the octogenarian Inouye, Mikulski is the only other incumbent Democratic Senator up for re-election in 2010 that I suspected might retire. However, word is that she has already told her colleagues that she's running again. Of course, I'll wait for a formal announcement from Mikulski before removing her from the list, but, for now, let's assume that she's less than likely to retire.
16) Hillary Clinton's appointed successor (D-NY), ?
While it's most likely (in fact, almost definite) that Governor David Paterson will appoint a successor who will run for a full term in 2010, until an appointment is made and intentions confirmed, we should assume there's at least a small chance of a placeholder appointment, however unlikely. |
