Georgia: First and foremost, I want to commend Jim Martin for running a strong campaign in deep red Georgia. Anyone analyzing the Georgia Senate race should not lose sight of the fact that Georgia is arguably the most Republican-shifting state in the entire country over the last decade. Steve Benen lays it out well:
Republicans needed a runoff to keep a Senate seat they expected to win easily, in a reliably "red" state, and it's evidence of a party with the wind at its back. Of course it is.
Republicans have the smallest House minority in nearly two decades, and the smallest Senate minority in nearly three decades. They got trounced in the presidential race, and are now easily outnumbered in the nation's governorships. But they managed, with surprising difficulty, to hold on to a Senate seat in Georgia. Can't you just feel the momentum?
The New York Observer is even more succinct with their headline: "What the Chambliss Win Says About National G.O.P. Prospects: Nothing." While Republicans should not be unduly buoyed by the victory of a conservative Republican in a conservative state, a Democratic loss is a Democratic loss. A shocker of a win would have been great, but it would have been just that, a shocker.
There is a silver lining for Democrats, and it underscores that hard work over time is necessary to achieve victory, but that victory is possible: if the more than 1.75 million Jim Martin voters on Election Day all turned out for the run-off, Martin would have crushed Saxby Chambliss' 1.22 million run-off tally by more than 40%. Democratic voters exist in Georgia. We need to continue working to organize and improve turnout - but the voters and the votes are there. So back to work.
Minnesota: While differing methodologies result in different tallies, the Al Franken campaign is declaring that they have now taken a narrow lead in the recount. How did the Franken camp achieve their figure?
A few caveats are necessary. The Franken camp's methodology involves taking down the opinions of the local election officials regarding the challenged ballots, and assuming that all the challenges will result in those local officials being upheld by the state canvassing board.
That said, the Franken camp displayed an additional sign of optimism:
[Al Franken's lead recount lawyer Marc] Elias also announced that the campaign is withdrawing 633 of their ballot challenges that they've concluded have no chance at all of being upheld, the first step by either campaign in pulling back on that particularly nutty element of this recount. This also means that Coleman's apparent lead under other methodologies, which exclude all challenged ballots, will be increasing by around 600 votes.
By weeding out several hundred challenged ballots they don't think will be upheld, the Franken camp offers additional credibility for the remaining 2,300-or-so. The key takeaway point here is to not be discouraged when Norm Coleman's camp or other Republican partisans crow about being up by 900 votes. Nothing has changed in the dynamics - if anything, it's a positive sign for Franken; and, the count will still be determined by the Canvassing Board once the last un-recounted votes get recounted. Stay tuned!
Florida: Republican former Gov. Jeb Bush is publicly considering a 2010 Senate bid to succeed unpopular retiring Republican Mel Martinez. While the Bush name nationally is in the tank, Jeb Bush did leave the Governor's office with a 65% approval rating, so a Jeb candidacy couldn't simply be George W-ed away. In the Politico story, Republican Marco Rubio also intimates that he'd step aside for a Bush candidacy but would run if Jeb doesn't. On the Democratic side, Congressman Allen Boyd is now publicly considering a 2010 Senate bid, as well. One fun tidbit to come out of Martinez's retirement announcement is the revelation that Republican communication continues to lag:
Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) on Tuesday got a taste of life as National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman, when he found out about Sen. Mel Martinez's (R-Fla.) decision not to seek re-election in 2010 the same way most everyone else did - via the media.
Republican sources say Martinez did not give Cornyn advance warning of his decision, which he announced Tuesday morning during a news conference in Orlando, Fla.
Arizona: Republican former Congressman J.D. Hayworth may be considering a 2010 Senate primary challenge to John McCain. While losing a potential Janet Napolitano Senate candidacy to the Cabinet appointment was a drawback for Dems regarding AZ-Sen, a costly Republican primary could be very helpful to the eventual Democratic nominee.
Delaware: Outgoing Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Carney says that he has decided "beyond a doubt" that he will run for federal office in 2010. The only question is whether he will challenge Republican Rep. Mike Castle or run for what will be an open U.S. Senate seat, potentially leading to a primary against state Attorney General and political scion Beau Biden, should Biden also run.
Illinois: Governor Rod Blagojevich offers his broadest comments to date on the process to appoint a Senate successor to Barack Obama:
Gov. Blagojevich, in the most detailed interview to date on how he will fill the Senate seat formerly held by President-elect Barack Obama, told me Tuesday his replacement does not have to be an African American and he is open to selecting someone who would serve only the two years left in the term.
It could be a placeholder, and demographic considerations are out the window. So, basically, it could be anyone. The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet also offers (emphasis added by me):
Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) is waging an overt drive. I asked Blagojevich what he thought of Jackson's public campaign.
Blagojevich offered a response I took as lukewarm, but I may be reading too much into his measured comments. ...
He's already talked to Dem Representatives Jan Schakowsky; Danny Davis, who is becoming more vocal about wanting the seat, and Luis Gutierrez. Former state Senate President Emil Jones, Veterans Affairs chief Tammy Duckworth, and Attorney General Lisa Madigan are near the top of what the governor said was a long list.
Sweet does note that Blagojevich is aiming to get a replacement in office "before the new Senate is sworn in next month to give the new senator a leg up on seniority." The Guru continues to predict Duckworth. (HT: Ben Smith & PW)
Pennsylvania: Word is that MSNBC's Chris Matthews continues to talk with numerous PA-Dem leaders about a potential 2010 Senate bid. Meanwhile, unnamed Democratic leaders do not think that Congressman Joe Sestak will run for Senate, but that Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz "seems to talk about it often." The sense I get from my interactions with people in the know is that Congresswoman Schwartz is the most likely of the Congressional delegation to run for Senate in 2010 and that they're quite pleased about that. |
