| It's March of 2008 and, in addition to a historic Presidential race, there are numerous high-profile and competitive Senate races. So, of course, it's too early to take a look at 2010's Senate races, right?
Wrong.
Over a year ago, I took a first glance at the 2010 races, which feature 19 Republican-held seats up compared with 15 Democratic seats. Among those up for re-election are 8 Republican Senators who will be at least 70 years old on Election Day 2010, compared with only 4 Democratic Senators. So, we ought to take a look at whom we might be able to recruit to challenge their GOP Senators. (The list does not include Democrats currently running for Senate.)
| State | Republican Incumbent | Top Recruits |
|---|
| Alabama | Richard Shelby* | Congressman Artur Davis
Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks | | Alaska | Lisa Murkowski | Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich**
Congressional candidate Ethan Berkowitz | | Arizona | John McCain* | Governor Janet Napolitano
Attorney General Terry Goddard | | Florida | Mel Martinez | Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink
(9 of 25 Congresspeople are Dem) | | Georgia | Johnny Isakson | Congressman Jim Marshall
Attorney General Thurbert Baker
(Commissioners of Labor & Ag both Dem) | | Idaho | Mike Crapo | State Representative Nicole LeFavour | | Iowa | Chuck Grassley* | Former Governor Tom Vilsack
Congressman Bruce Braley
(Gov, LG, AG, SoS, Treas. all Dem) | | Kansas | Sam Brownback* | Governor Kathleen Sebelius
(LG, 2 of 4 Congresspeople are Dems) | | Kentucky | Jim Bunning* | Congressman Ben Chandler
(Gov, LG, Auditor, Treas. all Dem) | | Louisiana | David Vitter | Former Governor Kathleen Blanco
Former Congressman Chris John
(LG, AG both Dem) | | Missouri | Kit Bond* | Attorney General Jay Nixon***
Secretary of State Robin Carnahan
Congressman Russ Carnahan
Auditor Susan Montee | | New Hampshire | Judd Gregg | Governor John Lynch
Former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand
Businessman Gary Hirshberg
(Both Congresspeople are Dems) | | North Carolina | Richard Burr | Governor Mike Easley
Congressman Brad Miller
(LG, AG, SoS, Superintendent, Treas., Labor
Commish, 7 of 13 Congresspeople are Dems) | | Ohio | George Voinovich* | Congressman Tim Ryan
Congresswoman Betty Sutton
Iraq veteran Paul Hackett
(Gov, LG, AG, SoS, Treas.,
7 of 18 Congresspeople are Dem) | | Oklahoma | Tom Coburn | Governor Brad Henry
Congressman Dan Boren
(LG, AG, Treas., Superintendent,
Commissioners of Labor & Insurance all Dem) | | Pennsylvania | Arlen Specter* | Auditor Jack Wagner
(11 of 19 Congresspeople are Dems) | | South Carolina | Jim DeMint | State Superintendent of Education Jim Rex | | South Dakota | John Thune | Former Senator Tom Daschle
Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth
Public Utilities Commissioner Steve Kolbeck | | Utah | Robert Bennett* | Congressman Jim Matheson
Former Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson |
* denotes possible retirement
** denotes amid exploratory committee for a 2008 Senate race
*** denotes currently running for Governor
Observations about 2010:
If Arlen Specter, Kit Bond, and Chuck Grassley ultimately opt for retirement (they will be 80, 71, and 77 on Election Day 2010, respectively), Democrats could offer competitive open seat challenges.
Even if George Voinovich, Jim Bunning, and Sam Brownback don't retire, Democrats could offer highly competitive challenges.
Governor Napolitano already leads John McCain by double-digits in a hypothetical match-up, in case he doesn't either assume the Presidency or retire.
Due to a lack of popularity of the GOP incumbent or other political environmental dynamics, with strong recruitments, Democrats could also offer highly competitive challenges in Alaska, New Hampshire, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and even Oklahoma.
At the very least, it's premature to write anywhere off.
With a dozen or more competitive Republican-held seats, it certainly brings into clearer focus the goal of a 60-seat filibuster-proof Democratic majority. |
