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Democratic Senators and Candidates
Alabama:
-Attorney William Barnes
Alaska:
-unknown
Arizona:
-Tuscon City Councilman Rodney Glassman
Arkansas:
-Senator Blanche Lincoln
-Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter
California:
-Senator Barbara Boxer
Colorado:
-Senator Michael Bennet
-Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff
Connecticut:
-Attorney General Richard Blumenthal
Delaware:
-New Castle County Executive Chris Coons
Florida:
-Congressman Kendrick Meek
-North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns
-Former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre
Georgia:
-Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond
-Activist R.J. Hadley
Hawaii:
-Senator Daniel Inouye
Idaho:
-unknown
Illinois:
-Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias
Indiana:
-Congressman Brad Ellsworth
Iowa:
-Attorney Roxanne Conlin
-Former State Senator Tom Fiegen
-Former State Representative Bob Krause
Kansas:
-Retired newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger
Kentucky:
-Attorney General Jack Conway
Louisiana:
-Congressman Charlie Melancon
Maryland:
-Senator Barbara Mikulski
Missouri:
-Secretary of State Robin Carnahan
Nevada:
-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
New Hampshire:
-Congressman Paul Hodes
New York-A:
-Senator Chuck Schumer
New York-B:
-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
North Carolina:
-Former State Senator Cal Cunningham
-Secretary of State Elaine Marshall
North Dakota:
-State Senator Tracy Potter
Ohio:
-Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher
Oklahoma:
-unknown
Oregon:
-Senator Ron Wyden
Pennsylvania:
-Congressman Joe Sestak
South Carolina:
-Charleston County Councilman Vic Rawl
South Dakota:
-unknown
Texas (if KBH resigns):
-Former Comptroller John Sharp
Utah:
-Liquor Control Commission Chair & Businessman Sam Granato
Vermont:
-Senator Patrick Leahy
Washington:
-Senator Patty Murray
Wisconsin:
-Senator Russ Feingold

Republican Retirements, Resignations & Passings
Sam Brownback (R-KS): Announced retirement, 12/18/08
Christopher "Kit" Bond (R-MO): Announced retirement, 1/8/09
George Voinovich (R-OH): Announced retirement, 1/12/09
Judd Gregg (R-NH): Announced retirement (we think), 2/12/09
Jim Bunning (R-KY): Announced retirement, 7/27/09
Mel Martinez (R-FL): Officially resigned, 9/9/09

Primary Challengers to GOP Incumbents
Arizona (John McCain):
-Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth
-Businessman Jim Deakin
Georgia (Johnny Isakson):
-Congressman Paul Broun (rumored)
Louisiana (David Vitter):
-Former State Senator James David Cain (considering)
-Retired Lieutenant General Russel Honore (rumored)
-Retired State Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor (rumored)
North Carolina (Richard Burr):
-Asheville City Councilman Eddie Burks
Utah (Robert Bennett):
-Businesswoman Cherilyn Eagar
-Businessman James Williams
-Businessman Tim Bridgewater
-Former gubernatorial counsel Mike Lee
-Former Juab County Attorney (and gubernatorial brother) David Leavitt (rumored)

Primary Challengers to GOP Establishment-Anointed Candidates
Arkansas (John Boozman):
-State Senator Gilbert Baker
-Businessman Curtis Coleman
-State Senator Kim Hendren
-2004 Senate nominee Jim Holt
Colorado (Jane Norton):
-Weld County DA Ken Buck
-Businessman Cleve Tidwell
-Former State Senator Tom Wiens
Connecticut (Rob Simmons):
-Businesswoman Linda McMahon
-Economist Peter Schiff
-2004 Senate Nominee Jack Orchulli (considering)
Delaware (Mike Castle):
-2008 Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell
Missouri (Roy Blunt):
-State Senator Chuck Purgason
New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte):
-1996 Gubernatorial Nominee Ovide Lamontagne
-Businessman Jim Bender
-Businessman William Binnie

Right-Leaning Candidates
Arizona:
-Insurance Consultant Rick Biondi (Libertarian)
-Business Consultant Ian Gilyeat (independent)
Arkansas:
-Veteran Trevor Drown (independent)
California:
-Activist Gail Lightfoot (Libertarian)
Colorado:
-Businessman Maclyn Stringer (Libertarian)
Florida:
-Professor Marshall DeRosa (Constitution)
-Veteran Alex Snitker (Libertarian)
-Conservative activist Bernie DeCastro
Georgia:
-Radio personality Eric Von Haessler (Libertarian)
-Pilot Chuck Donovan (Libertarian)
Kansas:
-Activist Joe Bellis (Reform)
Louisiana:
-Anthony Gentile (Libertarian)
-Vietnam veteran William Robert Lang (independent)
Missouri:
-Jerry Beck (Constitution)
-Jonathan Dine (Libertarian)
Nevada:
-Businessman Jon Ashjian (Tea Party)
-Conservative activist Jim Duensing (Libertarian)
-Veteran Jeff Durbin (independent)
New Hampshire:
-Businessman & veteran Ken Blevens (Libertarian)
New York-B:
-Activist Jacques Ditte (Conservative)
North Carolina:
-Business analyst Mike Beitler (Libertarian)
Ohio:
-Dr. Michael Pryce (Tea Party)
-Steve Linnabary (Libertarian)
-Electrical engineer Eric Deaton (independent)
Oregon:
-Marc Delphine (Libertarian)
Pennsylvania:
-Businessman Mike Yilit (independent)
Texas:
-Veteran Jon Roland (Libertarian)
Vermont:
-John LaPierre (independent)
Wisconsin:
-Cumberland Alderman Rob Taylor (Constitution)

Links
-Democratic National Committee
-Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
-DSCC's YouTube Page

-CQPolitics Balance of Power Scorecard (regularly updated)
-Swing State Project Competitive Senate Race Ratings (8/11/09)
-Cook Political Report Senate Race Ratings (7/30/09)
-Rothenberg Political Report 2010 Senate Ratings (7/27/09)
-Rasmussen Reports 2010 Election Polls
-Real Clear Politics' 2008 Senate Latest Polls
-Pollster.com 2008 Senate Elections
-National Journal 2008 Senate Race Rankings (7/23/08)
-Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Senate Sensibilities (6/19/08)

-The Hill
-Politico
-Roll Call

-2010 Senate Elections Wikipedia Page
-U.S. Senate Seat-Holders Chart, 1978-present
-Pollster.com
-Project Vote Smart
-An Inconvenient Truth
-Senator Chuck Schumer's Positively American
-Americans United for Change
-Empowering Veterans
-Vote Vets
-Electoral-Vote.com
-Memeorandum

Blog Roll
Senate 2008 Guru

-All Spin Zone
-AmericaBlog
-Atrios
-Bob Geiger
-Booman Tribune
-Campaign Diaries
-The Caucus (NY Times)
-Common Ground (DSCC)
-Congress Matters
-CQPolitics
-CQPolitics Eye on 2010
-Crooks and Liars
-Daily Kos
-The Democratic Daily
-Digby
-Down with Tyranny!
-Elect Blue
-Electile Dysfunction
-Firedoglake
-First Read (MSNBC)
-FiveThirtyEight.com
-The Fix (Washington Post)
-The Gavel (Speaker Pelosi)
-The Group News Blog
-Gun Toting Liberal
-Hotline Blogometer
-Hotline On Call
-The Huffington Post
-Kicking Ass (DNC)
-Left in the West
-Liberal Values
-Marc Ambinder
-MyDD
-Open Left
-The Plum Line (Greg Sargent)
-Political Animal
-Political Base
-The Political Carnival
-Political Ticker (CNN)
-Political Wire
-Politics1
-Progressive Blog Digest
-Progressive Blue
-Real Clear Politics Blog
-Real Clear Politics: Politics Nation
-The Rothenberg Political Report
-Scholars & Rogues
-Senatus
-The Stakeholder (DCCC)
-Swing State Project
-Talking Points Memo
-Think Progress
-VetVoice
-War Room (Salon)
-Wonkette

-43rd State Blues (ID)
-The Albany Project (NY)
-AZ Netroots (AZ)
-Barefoot and Progressive (KY)
-Bleeding Heartland (IA)
-Blogging Blue (WI)
-Blue Arkansas (AR)
-Blue Hampshire (NH)
-Blue Indiana (IN)
-Blue NC (NC)
-Blue Oklahoma (OK)
-Blue Oregon (OR)
-Buckeye State Blog (OH)
-Burnt Orange Report (TX)
-Calitics (CA)
-Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis (AK)
-Colorado Pols (CO)
-The Daily Gotham (NY)
-Delaware Liberal (DE)
-Daily Kingfish (LA)
-Ditch Mitch KY (KY)
-Doc's Political Parlor (AL)
-Fired Up! Missouri (MO)
-FLA Politics (FL)
-Forward Kansas (KS)
-Free State Politics (MD)
-Green Mountain Daily (VT)
-Horse's Ass Seattle (WA)
-Indigo Journal (SC)
-Kansas Jackass (KS)
-Left in Alabama (AL)
-Legum's New Line (MD)
-The Locust Fork Journal (AL)
-Maryland Politics Watch (MD)
-The MountainGoat Report (ID)
-My Left Nutmeg (CT)
-North Decoder (ND)
-Ohio Daily Blog (OH)
-The Pennsylvania Progressive (PA)
-Prarie State Blue (IL)
-Progress Illinois (IL)
-Progressive Alaska (AK)
-Public Policy Polling (NC)
-Red State Rebels (ID)
-Show Me Progress (MO)
-Square State (CO)
-Texas Kaos (TX)
-Tondee's Tavern (GA)
-Uppity Wisconsin (WI)
-The Wasatch Watcher (UT)
-Washblog (WA)


Cheering Them On
-Draft Coop (NC)
-Draft Elaine Marshall (NC)
-Draft Jane Kidd (GA)

Revealing Their Record
-Big Oil Blunt (MO)
-Carly FAILorina (CA)
-Cheating on the Truth (LA)
-Cut and Run Charlie Crist (FL)
-Dirty Deals Dino (WA)
-Doing a Vitter! The David Vitter Hypocrisy Watch (LA)
-Forgotten Crimes (LA)
-The Idiot Factor: Todd Tiahrt's Folly (KS)
-Mr. Portman's Make Believe Neighborhood (OH)
-Not One Red Cent (NRSC)
-Peter King Watch (NY)
-Puppet Jane Norton (CO)
-The REAL McCain (AZ)
-Republican Against Richard Burr (NC)
-Rob Portman: Architect of the Bush Economy (OH)
-Turncoat Trey (KY)
-Two-Faced Kirk (IL)
-Washington Insiders (MO)

YouTube Video Library

The Hall of Fame YouTube Political Video: George Allen and "Macaca"


On Republican Obstructionism


Republican Scandals of 2007


DSCC Chair Bob Menendez Says Hello


MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan Enters the Race


GA-Sen: Georgia can't afford Johnny Isakson


Google Ads

Amazon Ads



Informative Widgets





Senate Guru

Early Thursday Morning Round-Up

by: Senate Guru

Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 01:54 AM EDT


  • Condolences go out to the family and friends of Arkansas Democratic Party Chairman Bill Gwatney, who was senselessly murdered Wednesday.

  • More chatter from WaPo's Cillizza about the prospects of 60.

  • North Carolina: The DSCC has released a new TV ad against Bush-rubber-stamp Elizabeth Dole. The ad mocks the "age card," declaring effectiveness and independence (from George W. Bush in particular) to be far more important, noting that Dole fails on both counts:

    The DSCC plans on taking it to Dole big-time, having reserved $7.3 million in North Carolina airtime.  Awesome. (HT: SSP)  This bodes very well for State Senator Kay Hagan.

  • South Dakota: The title of this CQ Politics article, "Will Sympathy Vote Re-Elect Sen. Johnson?" is remarkably crass and wildly ignorant to the accomplishments and record on which Senator Tim Johnson will earn re-election, accomplishments that are touted by the Republican Mayor of South Dakota's largest city.

  • Oregon & New Hampshire: The SEIU is putting $500,000 in Oregon and $600,000 in New Hampshire into the below ads critiquing the failed records of Republicans Gordon Smith and John Sununu, noting their stooge-hood for Big Pharma and HMOs:

  • Oregon: Republican Gordon Smith continues his mad dash away from his Republican Party as he renounced his Honorary Co-Chairman status with John W. McCain's Presidential campaign.  The reason Republican Gordon Smith cites?  He's focused on his re-election campaign.  What that has to do with something not remotely time-consuming or effortful (it is literally just lending his name to the list on John W. McCain's website), who knows?  It's just another example of Republican Gordon Smith willing to do or say anything to mislead Oregonians.

  • Mississippi: The website exposing the questionable ethics of Senate appointee Roger Wicker, The Real Wicker, has been further beefed up.  New items include the apparently inappropriate funding of an Asian resort trip and Wicker's effort to cover up the Jack Abramoff scandal.

  • Maine: Republican Susan Collins says that she tries "not to judge people's personal lives" and then says of John Edwards with a fiendish grin on her face "Don't you think he is the father of the child?"  Collins admits that her staff is "appalled" that she is discussing this.  I would imagine that many others are appalled, too.  "The hypocrisy of it!" Susan Collins exclaims.  Of course, Collins knows a little something about hypocrisy.  Susan Collins seems far less taken aback by the marital infidelities of her preferred candidate for President, John W. McCain.  If Susan Collins has the slightest shred of integrity, she hides it very well.

  • Minnesota: Smilin' Norm Coleman's ApartmentGate scandal is only about to get worse.  It appears that, in addition to enjoying well-below-market rent (when Coleman bothered to pay rent), Coleman also rarely, if ever, paid utilities.  Media questions have gone unanswered, and Coleman's campaign manager is now saying that Coleman had an agreement with his landlord (who is also a Republican operative) that Coleman would pay his utilities for the year at the end of the year.  A likely story that will continue to unfold.  In other news, the substance-free distractions that Smilin' Norm Coleman presents to Minnesotans as campaign ads have been quantifiably deemed to be failures.

  • New Jersey: It seems that the NRSC is officially giving up on any hope of NJ-Sen:

    A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Republican Dick Zimmer within seven points of the four-term incumbent, Democrat Frank Lautenberg (48%-41%), but it seems that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has already written off the former three-term Congressman. In an interview with Dow Jones Newswire, Rebecca Fisher, a spokeswoman for the NRSC, said that Louisiana's Mary Landrieu is their priority and "admitted the party had no other hopes of unseating an incumbent Democrat."

    As Kos points out, this is unfortunate, as it would have been terrific to watch the NRSC waste millions in the Garden State.

  • Colorado: An independent media examination of ads criticizing the record of Backwards Bob Schaffer finds absolutely nothing untruthful about them.  Schaffer's record really is just that bad.

  • Kansas: Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts is the latest Republican Senator to announce that he will skip the Republican National Convention, perhaps fearing any association with the sinking ship that is the national GOP.  I guess Roberts has no desire in going to a "funeral."  In other news, despite Roberts' myriad misleading attack ads against former Congressman Jim Slattery, Rasmussen Reports has seen Roberts' lead over Slattery shrink from 27 points to 19 points, 55-36.  It's still an uphill climb, in large part thanks to Roberts' barrage of misleading negative attack ads, but the numbers are moving in the correct direction.

  • Tennessee: Wes Clark is fighting for the 2008 Senate candidacy of former TN-Dems Chair Bob Tuke.  You can help the fight with a contribution to Tuke via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.

  • Virginia: Popular Democratic former Governor Mark Warner will deliver the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention.  This may raise Governor Warner's profile just high enough to give him a real shot at winning his 2008 Senate race.

  • Television chef Julia Child was a spy who helped take down the Nazis.  Who would've thought?
  • Senate Guru :: Early Thursday Morning Round-Up
    Tags: (All Tags)
    Print Friendly View Send As Email
    I am predicting the Joe Biden is going to be Obama's VP runningmate
    since he has foriegn policy experience- Senior Democratic Senator on the Foreign Relations(Chairman) and Judiciary Committee(former Chairman). Attack Dog Personallity(Good on Sunday Shows)- Unafraid to challenge Rudy and McCain. He appeals to working class Reagan Democrats. His home state has a Democratic Governor and will have a Democratic Governor in 2009. If Biden becomes VP he will be replaced by his son Beau,or Jack Markell(DE State Treasurer).
    Biden is in his mid 60's so it is highly unlikely he is going to be the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2016- since he will be in his 70's.

    That brings us Mark Warner- He is a popular former Governor from a battleground state- and will be a US Senator from a battleground State. He has given the Keynote Address at the Democratic Convention in 2008. Warner is likely to be Obama's VP runningmate during his bid for a second term 2012. In 2016- Mark Warner becomes the front runner for the 2016 Democratic Presidential nomination.

    Regarding Bayh- had Joe Kernan not lost to Mitch Daniels in 2004- Bayh would have been a sure bet for the 2008 Democratic Vice Presidential slot.  


    Does
    Delaware law allow Biden to run for his seat and for VP at the same time--ala Lieberman in 2000?  Whatever Democrat that's thrown in could probably beat Christine O'Donnell anyway, but I'm curious.  And when would a special election be held, assuming Biden is replaced after he's reelected this fall? Also, voters often don't like nepotism, so they may not like appointing Biden's son.  Appointing Markell probably depends on the outcome of the gubernatorial primary.  If the race gets nasty, Carney wouldn't appoint him (and Markell could win the race too).  Obviously, John Carney, should he lose to Markell (gracefully), would be another option.

    Find me blogging at Political Realm

    [ Parent ]
    It doesn't matter.
    Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner is a Democrat.  If Biden becomes VP-- or SecState, or any other position in an Obama administration-- Minner will likely name the state Attorney General to fill the Senate seat.  And the state AG just happens to be . . . Beau Biden, Joe's son.  So, either way, there will be a Democratic Senator Biden from Delaware going forward.

    [ Parent ]
    But does DE Law Allow to Run in 2 Simultaneous Elections
    It'd be different if Biden wasn't running for election himself as Senator in Delaware. Many states do not allow a person to run in two elections at once. So if Biden is to accept the VP nomination, he'd have to take his name off the Senate race. So if DE law forces that, since the Democratic nominee is set (Joe Biden), I'm not familiar with what state law states for how his name is replaced.

    If he can run in both, and wins in both, he'll be a Senator in the 111th Congress from the beginning of January and then have to resign on inauguration day (or before) and allow the Democratic Governor of Delaware to appoint a replacement. Again, not sure if they then require a special election after that or the appointment fills out the remainder of the term (basically six years).

    KELL


    [ Parent ]
    Merkley on tape...
    Thanks to the nation of Georgia and a video recorder, Merkley gives the NRSC exteremly cheap and effective campaign video about why this man should not be elected to the Senate.  Ouch!

    Supreme Court and the lack of 50%.
    The types of judges that Smith would confirm are much different (far right-wing) than those than Merkley would confirm (mainstream).  Fact is, Obama and Oregon supports Merkley, newred... Smith can't register 50% in a poll... he's in trouble.

    Hokie Guru
    http://firebryanstinespring.bl...


    [ Parent ]
    Filibuster Proof Majority
    What has been irking me about the talk of a "filibuster proof majority" is that no one has been talking about it in terms of actual functionality.  

    Getting to 60 seats is highly unlikely. And a smaller number doesn't have the same brand-ability, but 60 isn't the all out minimum number of seats we'll need to break filibusters.  

    The GOP isn't getting 49 votes every time they are trying to obstruct legislation.  They are winning these things with 44, 43, and 42 backers.  

    While 55, 56, and 57 don't sound as impressive as other numbers, there would be little hope for Republicans in succeeding to continually obstruct the Senate if they lost 5 or 6 seats.

    A filibuster-proof majority might be significantly smaller than 60.  


    Looking at the Senate Vote Count.
    How many of the Republican Senators are going to break with their party.
    Can we hold on to defectors like the Nelson twins,Max Baucus,Byrd, etc.  

    [ Parent ]
    Looking at the Competive Senate Races in 2008.
    Alaska- 2008 Alaska US Senate Race reflects the 1974 Alaska US Senate race- The last time Alaska elected a Democrat to the US Senate- (Mike Gravel)- 58-42.

    Colorado- 2008 Colorado US Senate Race reflects the 1992 Colorado US Senate Race and 2004 Colorado US Senate Race. Both competitive open seat US Senate Races Presidential years in which the Democratic Nominee won. Salazar(2004)51-47. Campbell(1992) 52-43.

    Georgia- 2008 Georgia US Senate Race reflects the 1998 Georgia US Senate Race- Coverdell(R)vs Coles(D) 52-45

    Idaho- 2008 Idaho US Senate Race reflects the 1992 Idaho US Senate Race- Last Competitive open US Senate Race in Idaho. Kempthorne(R) vs Stallings(D) 57-43.

    Kansas- 2008 Kansas US Senate Race reflects the 1996 Kansas US Senate Race- Brownback(R) vs Docking(D) 54-43

    Kentucky- 2008 Kentucky US Senate Race reflects the 1996 Kentucky US Senate Race- McConnell(R) vs Beasher(D) 55-43

    Maine- 2008 Maine US Senate Race reflects the 1996 Maine US Senate Race- Collins(R) vs Brennan(D) 49-43

    Minnesota- 2008 Minnesota US Senate Race reflects the 1990 US Senate Race- Wellstone(D) vs Boschwitz(R) 50-48 or 2002 Minnesota US Senate Race- Coleman(R) vs Mondale(D) 50-47.

    Mississippi- The last time Missississippi had a competitive US Senate race was in 1988- OPEN seat- Lott(R)vs Dowdy(D) 54-46.

    Nebraska- 2008 Nebraska US Senate race reflects the 1996 Nebraska US Senate Race- Hagel(R) vs Nelson(D) 56-42.

    New Hampshire- Unlike previous Democratic Senate Candidates in New Hampshire- Shaheen(D) is the strongest candidate. 55-45 percent race favoring Shaheen(D).

    New Mexico- The last time New Mexico had an open seat was in 1972- Domenici defeated Lt Governor Diane Denish's father 54-46. Back then 1972- was a pro GOP year Nixon defeated McGovern. This year in 2008 is a pro Democratic year/anti GOP year nationally and in NM. Pearce(R)is a weak candidate. The 2008 NM US Senate Race reflects the 2000 NM US Senate race- Bingaman(D) vs Redmond(R) race- 62-38.

    North Carolina- 2008 North Carolina US Senate Race reflects the 2004 North Carolina US Senate Race(Burr-R vs Bowles-D)52-47, 1996 (Helms-R vs Gantt)53-47, 1992 (Faircloth-R vs Sanford) 50-46.

    Oklahoma- 2008 Oklahoma US Senate Race reflects the 1996 Oklahoma US Senate Race- Inhofe(R) vs Boren(D) 57-40.

    Oregon- 2008 Oregon US Senate Race reflects the 1995 Oregon US Senate Race- Wyden(D) vs Smith(R) 48-47 or 1996 Oregon US Senate Race- Smith(R) vs Bruggere(D) 50-46.

    Texas 2008 Texas US Senate Race reflect the 1996 Texas US Senate Race- Gramm(R)vs Morales(D) 55-44

    Virginia- 2008- The last time Virginia had an open seat election was in 1988- when Chuck Robb a former Popular Governor won with token opposition- This race was similar to the 2004 Illinios US Senate Race. However- Gilmore is a top tier GOP contender but is highly unpopular- 60-40 race favoring Warner(D).

    In addition to picking up
    VA,NM,and CO- open seat Races in battleground states with Strong Democratic Candidates and Weak Republican Candidates.
    AK- A strong Democratic challenger running against a long time Republican Incumbent indicted and going on trial on corruption charges.
    NH- a Democratic leaning Battleground state with a Strong Democratic Challenger- a popular former Governor running against a weak first term Republican US Senator.

    we can pick up MN,and OR. both Blue States with Right of Center Republican incumbents. and NC- Dole is a female Lauch Faircloth.

    Mark Udall(CO) will be the new Harkin(IA),Wellstone(MN),and Feingold(WI) a progressive Senator who represents a battleground state and will always face tough re-election campaigns.  


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