Senate Guru On Strike for Red State Democrats - Updated

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Vivian Figures defeat Jeff Sessions
How are Noriega and Rice doing on the online fundraiser.

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by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 13:31:01 PM CDT

...

If you are being sarcastic, that was quite funny.  

However, unfortunatly, there is pretty much no way Figures will beat Sessions.

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by: Sean @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 17:54:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Too Bad

Cause I would be happy to get rid of this bastard
Due to his involvement in the Seigelman case, plus the Troy King Gay Sex Scandal should be tied around Sessions.
Sessions never won both of his US Senate Races with more than 60%.
Sessions was one of only nine opponents of Senator John McCain's anti-torture amendment. Sessions supports Vice President Dick Cheney's proposal to exempt the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) from any ban on torture.

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by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 18:32:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

and

Vivian Figures has done shit to deserve to win a US Senate seat.  sorry to say it...  Ron Sparks really couldve made just ANOTHER seat competitive, it would've been glorious to see Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia competitive.  

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by: AndrewMN @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 18:52:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What about

Jim Folsom or Don Seigelman or Bud Cramer

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by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 19:15:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Anyone remember the time

On this site when Figures' campaign referred to Merkly as Berkley. Priceless. Thats the only impression I have of her campaign, since I don't see any effort to make news or even get the ball rolling in AL.

Of the 16 seats Schumer said was competitive, I can assure you this is not one of them.

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by: Bobby @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 19:23:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sessions' Margin of Victory

Sessions never won both of his US Senate Races with more than 60%.

It seems like with immigration being as hot a topic as it is in the conservative South, Sessions will win with 60% plus of the vote this time.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 20:53:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

9 of 12 targeted GOP Senators...

seem to be avoiding the RNC convention.  Trying to distance themselves as much as possible from the GOP.

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by: BruinKid @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 18:56:45 PM CDT

Will they be hiding in the St Paul Minneapolis

Airport Restoom, Seeking other activities.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 19:21:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

or with hookers

http://mnpublius.com/2008/07/t...

apparently the St. Paul police are already preparing for a huge influxuation of prostitution once the Republicans are in town, hahahaha

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by: AndrewMN @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 22:17:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Spitzer had to resign for using a call girl service

McGreevey had to resign for being gay.

Yet Larry Craig refuses to resign despite being caught solicititing gay bathroom sex. and David Vitter refuses to resign despite getting caught using an escort service.

Arent the Republicans the one who resign when the get implicated in scandals.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 22:45:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Which new US Senator is going to be a rising star or be a hero to the Progressive Community

The rising star is going to be
Begich-AK
Warner-VA

The progressive heros are
Udalls (CO and NM)
Allen(ME)
Franken(MN)-
Merkley(OR)

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by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 19:56:43 PM CDT

Al Franken

seemed more effective when he was raising money through his PAC in 2006 for congressional candidates than he is now himself BEING the candidate.

I am confused about the polling in the MN Senate race though. One poll had Franken ahead by 2 points, and the recent one from Quinnipiac had Coleman ahead by double digits. What's up with that?

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 20:57:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

meh

when it comes down to it, there is absolutely no way Franken get's less than 45%.  That is basically the baseline for a DFL candidate (except with a major Independence candidate running).  The last time a DFL candidate has let their vote margin get down to the 41% mark was in the 80's but since then, every race has been extremely competitive since and the only blow-out gubernatorialy was in 1994, pro-Republican and Arne Carlson was more in the model of what Republicans used to be in this state, very moderate and willing to raise taxes and invest in education and transportation and things we care about.

There is no way Franken will lose by 15% and as of now, I'd still say there is no way Franken is below 40%, DFL baseline.

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by: AndrewMN @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 22:16:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If Franken loses it will be similar to the Grams vs Wynia race in 1994

If he wins it will be similar to the Wellstone vs Boshwitz race in 1990.

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by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 22:33:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not every race has a historical comparison

and I don't really see a lot of similarity to either of those two races.

Find me blogging at Political Realm

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by: PoliticalRealm @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 11:02:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

i am talking about the margin of victory.

The Wellstone vs Boschwitz 1990 race was 50-48 favoring Wellsotne.
The Coleman vs Mondale 2002 race was 50-47 favoring Coleman.
Franken can lose by a narrow margin or win by a narrow margin. Barkley will get 5% of the popular vote. Franken's base is at 45% and his ceiling is at 50%.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 14:39:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The Q poll

also had Obama by only 2, with the same sample of respondents.  My guess is that they happened to get a redder-than-average sample, and it's showing in both races.  Fivethirtyeight.com has MN as +9 for Obama and Franken down by 6 or 7.  I expect MN-Sen to be a very tight race.  A lot of people don't like Coleman;  but a lot aren't sold on Franken's preparedness for the job.

I think Franken's slogan should be:  "Isn't it time Minnesota had a Senator working for progressive legislation instead of obstructing it?"

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by: lilnev @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 09:55:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I hate to say it but Al Franken should have folllowed the Hillary Clinton 2000 NY US Senate Race style listening tour.

During the 2000 NY US Senate Race- When Hillary Clinton decided to run for the US Senate from New York. She entered the race with High negatives. The Republicans have invested all their resources trying to defeat Hillary. She was being labeled as a carpet-bagger. During the 2000 US Senate Campaign she had listening tours and campaigned in heavily republican counties in Upstate New York. At the end Hillary won the New York Senate Race by a 12 point margin.
Franken should and should spend most of his time campaigning in Republican leaning Counties in Northern Minnesota. Campaign in every rural counties. He should not just rely on his base in the Twin Cities area.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 10:23:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Clinton

You have to remember, though, that Clinton was helped by the fact that Rudy Guiliani had to drop out of the race. Lazio, while prominent, was unable to make any inroads in the strong Democratic strongholds in New York.

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by: Anthony Distler @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 11:00:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

You're Right About

Franken having to reach out to other parts of MN in order to win, not just based on the Twin Cities base where he is strong. You can see that just by looking at previous Senate results maps guys like Paul Wellstone were pulling strongly even in Republican counties he didn't win in. Amy Klobuchar did the same thing but got a larger win because of the ineffectiveness of her opponent two years ago.

Incidentally, the Republicans have won in Minnesota by polling strongly in the Twin Cities area themselves (although for Coleman, that may have happened because the DFL replaced the candidate due to accidental death in between the campaign).

But I think what really is bothering me about Franken is that he's worried so much about looking like a radical leftist that he's lost touch with his own identity of who he REALLY is. He's so afraid of losing he's restrained himself to a degree that gives off an air of insincerity. This is a guy who used to love going on shows like Real Time with Bill Maher for shameless self-promotion. But now, because his political advisers said he shouldn't, Franken has turned down requests to go on that particular program in fear of arousing controversy.

I honestly think if Al Franken goes back to being the no holds barred truth teller that he used to be, he could actually persuade more votes than driving them away.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 13:36:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree to some extent

Franken has had to spend so much time defending his past and distancing himself from it that he can't use it as an advantage.  He can't be eccentric or really frank and has to do a lot more of the political games that dont allow us to get to know Franken the way I think we could .  But, him embracing his past personality at least and telling Coleman where to stick it (in a more diplomatic way) is impossible.

When the Franken campaign started, he did do a lot of touring around the state, and he did that during his 2006 PAC days campaiging for other candidates as well.

The place where he is going to need campaign to up his vote total big time will be the suburbs.  They will favor Coleman, he is a perceived moderate (which he is on a number of issues) and the suburbs match his ideology pretty well, maybe more so related to Rep. Ramstad's ideology but Coleman will do really well here.  Franken needs to be out in the burbs constantly, a couple of trips up the Iron Range just to make sure he wins by at least 60% (if not more) there and do what he can in northeastern Minnesota and southern Minnesota.  Completely ignore most of the exurban areas because they have shown zero movement towards our directions and hope that's enough.

I highly doubt Coleman will get as many votes in St Paul this time around, 25% tops for his vote total, hopefully more around 20%.

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by: AndrewMN @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 22:56:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Begich

I have a feeling that Begich will be similar to Webb - a senator praised by all parts of the party, and brought up for future big time rolls in the senate and otherwise. If Begich is able to win and then pull off a re-election, look for a future presidental race with this guy.

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by: Anthony Distler @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 23:52:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

While Webb is the Democratic Party's point man on

the Iraq War.

Begich will be the Democratic Party's point man on Offshore Oil Drilling,Environmental Protection,Energy Independence.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 00:01:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Begich wants to open ANWR

You really think someone running in Alaska will oppose this? Hell no is he our environmental protection go to, that is just absurd!

He is only against off shore drilling because it means Alaska makes up less of the supply

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by: Bobby @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 11:32:28 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

he's actually

for drilling in ANWR through using an exsisting oil well and drilling underground to get to the ANWR oil so it doesn't affect the environment.

(I threw a fit about him being for ANWR on SSP, then I got educated about Alaskan politics and got some great resources on his position on the issue)

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by: AndrewMN @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 22:45:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ready & Willing...

I applaud the efforts to get the online community backing the candidates in Red States, even with two of the races being in our non-Top Tier races, and I hate when the SenateGuru is on strike, so I'll give an Andrew Jackson to each of Martin, Slattery, and Musgrove.

In addition, I want to give my quarterly contribution to thoe candidates where I think the Democrat can win in November, as I want momentumt to keep going in those races. So Andrew Jacksons also to Allen in Maine, Begich in Alaska, Hagan in North Carolina, and Merkley in Oregon.

Finally, I want to give a Jackson to LaRocco in Idaho and Rice in Oklahoma. For LaRocco, I think he's an outstanding candidate and I love his approach to his campaign. As for Rice, he's a solid candidate and I'd like nothing more than to see the GOP loco knocked out of that seat. And as always, I toss in my Jackson to ActBlue to help that great site attrack more dollars for our candidates.

KELL

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by: ryanlkelly @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 13:11:04 PM CDT

Some more money

Once I get back my debit card (there were fraud problems and I had to scrap it like a month ago), I will be giving some money to Begich. I'll give to Jim Martin once he wins the Democratic nomination.

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by: Anthony Distler @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 14:55:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The Red State Republican held seats that are going to be a lost cause for us.

Meaning it is less likely we are going to win those states unless the Republican is caught tapping his foot in the public mens restroom or soliciting an underage hooker.
1)Alabama(Sessions)
2)Georgia(Chambliss)
3)Kansas(Roberts)
4)Mississippi(Cochran)
5)Nebraska(OPEN-Hagel)
6)Oklahoma(Inhofe)
7)South Carolina(Graham)
8)Tennessee(Alexander)
9)Wyoming(Enzi)
10)Wyoming(Barrasso)

The Second Tier Red States we have an excellent chance of winning is in
1)Idaho(LoRocco vs Risch)
2)Kentucky(Lunsford vs McConnell)
3)North Carolina(Hagan vs Dole)
4)Texas(Noriega vs Cornyn).  

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by: nkpolitics @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 15:18:01 PM CDT

Okay, I ponied up for Slattery (12:24 a.m. PST) as he represents the best

combination of matching my political beliefs with having a decent chance to win and running in a cheap state (compared to Musgrove and Martin).

I also threw in $100 for Merkley, my homestate candidate, for whom I volunteer a lot but who needs all the cash he can get. His race means a lot to me so I'm making helping him out, financially and by volunteering, a priority-- I can't think of a better investment and all the little sacrifices will be worthwhile.

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by: verasoie @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 02:34:37 AM CDT

Guru

I'm tellin' ya, Guru, the Democratic Party should invite you to their convention and personally thank you for the money you've raised.

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by: Anthony Distler @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 09:26:59 AM CDT