Q2 Take and End-of-June Cash-on-Hand Fundraising Numbers

First Comment on Senate Guru *bout time*

Overall, not bad. The DSCC has made it clear who they are targeting in their e-mails where they have 11 races n the board: VA, NM, NH, CO, AK, MS, OR, MN, ME, KY, and NC.

However, their last e-mail said they would add more races. With the numbers out only one other challenger looks worthy of attention at this moment in time.

Kleeb has outperformed and is keeping pace despite his late start. From observing only the COH and 3Q raised, it appears that NE can be added to the DSCC board to make an even dozen.

*PS I am sad to see our major deficit in cash in OK, TX, and KS. I would have liked these to be up there, but the cash game is going against us, and as a Texan, this really saddens me.

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by: trowaman @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 11:05:55 AM CDT

It's all relative

While the cash deficit in TX is huge by any standard, the $2 million (give or take) deficits in OK and KS are not remotely insurmountable.  One would think that, with higher priority defenses, the NRSC won't be allocating much of anything to either state, but the DSCC could easily send $2 million to both states without much worry.

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by: Senate Guru @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 19:20:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Guru, I love this site and you're great...

but with those Idaho numbers, I'm thinking that all the focus on the race is misplaced.  Sure, LaRocco is doing his best, and running an inovative campaign, but money does play a role.

It's a shame Craig didn't decide to run again.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt

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by: wmlawman @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 11:35:39 AM CDT

Money does play a role...

and the money gap is, relatively, quite small.  Keep in mind that Risch has already put in hundreds of thousands of his own dollars - so, while his fundraising pace is definitely ahead of LaRocco's, it's not massively ahead, when you consider the raw numbers.  Not to overdo it on the DSCC-as-savior concept, but they can send $1 million to Idaho in a flash, totally cancelling out the GOP $ advantage.  And imagine the negative press the NRSC would get if they were forced to send money to Idaho to play defense.

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by: Senate Guru @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 19:23:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

another thing to consider

Rex Rammell also posted similar fundraisisng numbers to LaRocco.  For those who don't know who Rammell is, he is a very conservative Rancher who has some serious axes to grind with Risch.  He will be fighting Risch the whole way and LaRocco has an opportunity to win with only a plurality.  

Also, while no where near as big a deal as Rammell, there are 2 other very conservative candidates running on the Libertarian and Constitution Party tickets.  Evey percent helps and sending every dime to LaRocco helps too.  Idaho is a very inexpensive state to advertise in.  Unlike Texas and Noreiga where I have all but given up, LaRocco can blanket the state even with the money he has now.  

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 00:35:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Very true

While Rammell will use every one of his dollars to beat up on Risch, the other righties will also shave a couple points off Risch.

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by: Senate Guru @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 01:20:53 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Kleeb

is easily had the most shocking fundraising quarter.  If he can outraise a former Gov. and former Sec. of Agriculture, than maybe something is happening out in Nebraska that we just dont know about.  The DSCC will probably spend money there, a few ads could go a long way.  And if this turns out to be a huge wave election and we capture 10 senate seats or what not, Nebraska could be on the edge of that wave.

I was a little dissapointed to see Coleman outraise Franken, he hasn't done that for two or three quarters I believe.  But alas, he had a rough quarter campaign wise.

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by: AndrewMN @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 13:29:03 PM CDT

Three consecutive quarters, yeah

and Coleman only outraised Franken by about $50K.

Put it like this - Franken has had about as much bad press as he could over the last few months, and all Coleman can eke out is a lead somewhere between 2 and 10 points, depending on which poll you look at.  I'd concede that this is probably a mid- to high-single digit race right now.  Wait 'til the first debtate.  If Franken shows a command of the issues and Coleman gets knocked around on Iraq or ties to George W. Bush or issues where he's voted too far to the right, we'll see the numbers move quickly.

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by: Senate Guru @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 19:26:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Two points

1. I'm with trowaman. Nebraska is clearly the 12th most competitive race now. We've known that VA, NM, NH, CO, AK, MS, OR, MN, ME, KY, and NC will be targeted and then there was OK, ID, GA, KS, NE and TX as the longer shots vying for a final spot. Kleeb outraised Johanns. None of the others where close. Rice is the only one who is closer to the incumbents CoH (32 vs 27 percent) and that's beacuse he started 7 months earlier (and also didn't have a primary against a self funding multi-millionaire).

Scott Kleeb is the strongest of the more long shots and if the DSCC gets into this race we can win it.

2. Speaking of that. Mark Pryor, Dick Durbin, Joe Biden, Tom Harkin, John Kerry, Carl Levin, Max Baucus, Jack Reed, and Jay Rockerfeller all face little or no opposition this fall. I would hope all of them would like a Senate majority that agreed with them. Well they are sitting on $43,816,895 and growing. That's more that the DSCC's current CoH.

Add in the fact that Chuck Schumber and Evan Bayh both have over 10 million in their 2010 bank accounts.

Chuck needs to push hard and get 50 million dollars of that. Imagine that. We could be up on the air in ALL the long shots and the more likely shots RIGHT now.

60 seat majority? Forget about it. How about a 70 seat majority?

Seriously. Those 12 Senators hold the future of America in their election bank accounts. Weather or not they pony up will be a true test of their values.

The most important netroots campaign of 2008 will be Use it or Loose it 2008.

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by: Populista @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 17:54:33 PM CDT

an excellent point

The use it or lose it campaign will be crucial.  50 million dollars would go a long way toward solving all of our cash problems, even in a state like Texas.  Especially when you consider the DSCC shouldn't have to lift a finger to win in states like Virginia and New Mexico.  

With the continued trouncing the Democratic candidates themselves are giving to thier Republican opponents in fundraising, that DSCC total just seems to keep getting bigger and bigger as they don't have to spend as much to play catch up in some places.  

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 00:38:49 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

That sounds great....

...but can Mark Pryor (for example) dump $3 million into the DSCC coffers just like that, legally?

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by: CLLGADEM @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 09:06:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]