| Taking a moment to look beyond the 2008 election cycle, it is worth noting that 2010 could be a banner year for female Democratic candidates for Senate. In fact, the 2010 election cycle could be the best cycle ever for non-incumbent female Democratic Senate candidates.
Perhaps the two strongest years for non-incumbent female Democratic Senate candidates were 2000 and 1992. The 2000 cycle featured three non-incumbent female Democratic nominees for Senate: First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow, and businesswoman and former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell. All three were, of course, victorious (as were they also in their respective 2006 re-election bids). 1992 featured the most non-incumbent female Democratic nominees for Senate (9), and the most victorious female Democratic new Senators (4): Congresswoman Barbara Boxer, former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein (in a special election), State Senator Patty Murray, and Cook County Recorder of Deeds Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois.
The current cycle includes three female Democratic nominees for Senate who aren't incumbents: former Governor Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, in a race that solidly leans Democratic pick-up; State Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina, in a race that narrowly leans Republican retention; and, State Senator Vivian Figures of Alabama, in a race that is likely a strong Republican retention.
Now, back to 2010, there are at least four races in which current female statewide elected officials could be very strong Senate candidates and may likely be interested in persuing such a race.
Arizona: Governor Janet Napolitano is term-limited, so she won't be running for a third gubernatorial term - but that doesn't mean she won't be on the ballot. She has kicked her federal political action committee into gear to raise money for Democratic candidates around the country. Her inclusion in 2008 running mate conversations certainly helps her profile. And, perhaps most notably, a poll taken of a hypothetical 2010 Senate match-up between Napolitano and current Senator John McCain sees Napolitano leading by double-digits, 47-36. Polling also found Napolitano to be Arizona's most popular politician, well ahead of McCain, with a 59% approval compared to McCain's 42%. And with McCain about to turn 72, even if he loses his Presidential bid, he might not want to run for another Senate term in 2010 at the age of 74. AZ-Sen 2010 could be Napolitano's to lose.
Kansas: Governor Kathleen Sebelius is in much the same boat as Governor Napolitano. Sebelius is term-limited from running for a third term in 2010, and she also finds herself in many a 2008 Veep speculation conversation. Republican Senator Sam Brownback has made clear his intention to retire in 2010, leaving an open seat. Yes, 1932 was the last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate race in Kansas. That said, Governor Sebelius' approval rating was most recently put at a very strong 62%, including the approval of about half of Kansas Republicans. With former Congressman Jim Slattery waging a competitive campaign against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts this year, a Democrat with the support of Sebelius in an open seat race could fare very well.
Florida: Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink may not be a name that is as easily recognizable, even to political junkies, as the above-mentioned Governors' names. But you may hear that name more frequently after the 2008 cycle comes to an end and we begin looking at 2010 Senate races with greater focus. Sink is Florida's only Democratic statewide elected official besides Senator Bill Nelson, which immediately puts her into consideration when discussing potential candidates. Incumbent Republican Senator Mel Martinez has routinely had relatively lousy approval ratings, making him a top target for Democrats in 2010. Further, Public Policy Polling recently released a poll on a hypothetical Sink-Martinez match-up and found that Sink led 37-31. Prior to serving as Florida's CFO, she was President of Bank of America, so she could probably debate rings around Martinez regarding economic matters. And her household is no stranger to statewide electoral politics, her husband being 2002 Florida Gubernatorial nominee Bill McBride.
Missouri: Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is, of course, a member of the Carnahan political family of Missouri, which includes the late former Governor Mel Carnahan (Robin's father, who tragically died in a plane crash during his 2000 Senate bid, which he posthumously won against incumbent Republican John Ashcroft), former Senator Jean Carnahan (Robin's mother, who was appointed to the Senate seat that Mel Carnahan posthumously won), and Congressman Russ Carnahan (Robin's brother). The patriarch of the Carnahan political clan was former Congressman and Ambassador Albert Carnahan (Robin's paternal grandfather). Robin Carnahan, who won election to her current office in 2004 by a 51-46 margin, is currently amid a re-election campaign, meaning that she wouldn't have to sacrific her current office to run for Senate in 2010. Carnahan appears to have only token Republican opposition in her 2008 re-election bid. Meanwhile, the Republican incumbent, Kit Bond, will turn 71 in 2010, and will be a prominent blip on the retirement radar. The scion of Missouri's most prominent political family against an aging Bond (whose approval rating in recent months has been remarkably mercurial between the low-40s and high-50s) would be extremely competitive. A brand new poll by Public Policy Polling sees Bond and Carnahan in a statistical dead heat, Bond only up 44-42. Given that, in an open seat should Bond retire, Carnahan would conceivably be the front-runner. It doesn't hurt that, between Claire McCaskill's Senate victory in 2006 and Jay Nixon's strong lead in this year's Gubernatorial race, Missouri is again getting quite comfortable electing Democrats statewide.
These four women, current statewide elected officials all, would make formidable Senate candidates. In fact, all four could, under very realistic conditions, be considered favorites to win their respective Senate seats if they made Senate bids in 2010. They are not the only women who might consider a Senate bid next cycle. Keep an eye on the following potential Senate candidates.
In Louisiana, with Democrats not having the deepest bench, the Party could turn to former Governor Kathleen Blanco. Though Blanco opted against running for re-election rather than facing the state's most popular politician in now-Gov. Bobby Jindal, incumbent David Vitter is not as secure as Jindal. Vitter was politically wounded in his notorious prostitution scandal and will likely face a bruising primary, which may provide a Democrat like former Governor Blanco exactly the recipe for a political comeback.
In Ohio, while all eyes are on Congressman Tim Ryan as a potential challenger to incumbent Republican George Voinovich (who may simply retire at the end of his current term, as he'd be 74-years-old on Election Day 2010), if Ryan opts against a run, expect the clamor to shift to Congresswoman Betty Sutton. The 45-year-old Sutton handily won the seat that Sherrod Brown gave up to run for Senate in 2006. Sutton, Ryan and Congressman Zack Space are the three Democratic members of Ohio's Congressional delegation who will be under the age of 60 on Election Day 2010. The same Public Policy Polling poll that saw Ryan and Voinovich tied 33-33 in a hypothetical 2010 match-up also saw Sutton down only five points, 37-32, against Voinovich, no doubt a very strong starting point given that each Congressperson only represents about one-eighteenth of the state, while Voinovich has been a statewide elected official for eighteen years (eight as Governor, ten so far as Senator).
In Idaho, State Representative Nicole LeFavour, currently a candidate for State Senate, had considered a 2008 Senate bid before deferring to former Congressman Larry LaRocco; don't be surprised if she gives a look toward an underdog bid against incumbent Bush-rubber-stamp Mike Crapo.
In North Carolina, Republican Richard Burr may be even less popular than Elizabeth Dole, so, if State Senator Kay Hagan's 2008 bid falls short, she could run again.
As for other current female Democratic statewide officeholders: in Pennsylvania, Treasurer Robin Weissman (appointed to fill the remainder of Bob Casey's term after his election to the U.S. Senate) is not running for a full term in 2008, so it is questionable as to whether she'd be interested in a Senate bid against Republican Arlen Specter, though an open seat may be more enticing if Specter were to retire; and, in South Dakota, at-large Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin would probably have an easier path to the Senate holding her House seat for a few more terms while awaiting a potential Tim Johnson retirement in 2014 rather than challenging John Thune in 2010.
We'll close the post with a look at the last twenty years of non-incumbent female Democratic candidates for Senate. Who do you think would make a strong female Democratic candidate for Senate in 2010? Offer your thoughts in the comments.
2008 (? for 3):
Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, NH
State Senator Kay Hagan, NC
State Senator Vivian Figures, AL
2006 (2 for 4):
State Auditor Claire McCaskill, MO
Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar, MN
Attormey Barbara Ann Radnofsky, TX
Writer Jean Hay Bright, ME
2004 (0 for 5):
Univ. of South Florida President Betty Castor, FL
State Treasurer Nancy Farmer, MO
State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, SC
Congresswoman Denise Majette, GA
Activist Doris "Granny D" Haddock, NH
2002 (0 for 6):
Governor Jeanne Shaheen, NH
State Auditor Susan Parker, AL
Former State Senate Majority Leader Chellie Pingree, ME
Federal Communications Commissioner Gloria Tristani, NM
Education activist Lois Combs Weinberg, KY
Therapist Joyce Jansa Corcoran, WY
2000 (3 for 3):
First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, NY
Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow, MI
Businesswoman and former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell, WA
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1998 (1 for 3):
Former Congresswoman Blanche Lincoln, AR
Former State First Lady Dottie Lamm, CO
Cuyahoga County Commissioner Mary Boyle, OH
1996 (1 for 5):
State Treasurer Mary Landrieu, LA
State Treasurer Sally Thompson, KS
Stockbroker Jill Docking, KS (special election)
Therapist Joyce Jansa Corcoran, WY
Former Anchorage School Board Member Theresa Obermeyer, AK
1994 (0 for 3):
State House Majority Leader Ann Wynia, MN
State Senator Jan Backus, VT
State Representative Linda Kushner, RI
1992 (4 for 9):
Congresswoman Barbara Boxer, CA
Former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein, CA (special election)
State Senator Patty Murray, WA
Cook County Recorder of Deeds Carol Moseley Braun, IL
St. Louis County Councilmember Geri Rothman-Serot. MO
State Senator Jean Lloyd-Jones, IA
Activist Lynn Yeakel, PA
Teacher Gloria O'Dell, KS
Activist Claire Sargent, AZ
1990 (0 for 2):
Activist Josie Heath, CO
Student Kathy Helling, WY
1988:
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