Roy Blunt and Big Oil
David Vitter is Cheating on the Truth
Rob Portman
Joe Sestak for Senate
Bill Halter for Senate
Expand the Map!
Expand the Map!
via ActBlue
Kendrick Meek (FL) $
Bill Halter (AR) $
Charlie Melancon (LA) $
Joe Sestak (PA) $
Paul Hodes (NH) $
Robin Carnahan (MO) $
Advertise Liberally
Advertise Liberally

Advertise on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click!

Election Day 2010 is in:

Support Senate Guru


Democratic Senators and Candidates
Alabama:
-Attorney William Barnes
Alaska:
-unknown
Arizona:
-Tuscon City Councilman Rodney Glassman
Arkansas:
-Senator Blanche Lincoln
-Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter
California:
-Senator Barbara Boxer
Colorado:
-Senator Michael Bennet
-Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff
Connecticut:
-Attorney General Richard Blumenthal
Delaware:
-New Castle County Executive Chris Coons
Florida:
-Congressman Kendrick Meek
-North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns
-Former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre
Georgia:
-Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond
-Activist R.J. Hadley
Hawaii:
-Senator Daniel Inouye
Idaho:
-unknown
Illinois:
-Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias
Indiana:
-Congressman Brad Ellsworth
Iowa:
-Attorney Roxanne Conlin
-Former State Senator Tom Fiegen
-Former State Representative Bob Krause
Kansas:
-Retired newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger
Kentucky:
-Attorney General Jack Conway
Louisiana:
-Congressman Charlie Melancon
Maryland:
-Senator Barbara Mikulski
Missouri:
-Secretary of State Robin Carnahan
Nevada:
-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
New Hampshire:
-Congressman Paul Hodes
New York-A:
-Senator Chuck Schumer
New York-B:
-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
North Carolina:
-Former State Senator Cal Cunningham
-Secretary of State Elaine Marshall
North Dakota:
-State Senator Tracy Potter
Ohio:
-Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher
Oklahoma:
-unknown
Oregon:
-Senator Ron Wyden
Pennsylvania:
-Congressman Joe Sestak
South Carolina:
-Charleston County Councilman Vic Rawl
South Dakota:
-unknown
Texas (if KBH resigns):
-Former Comptroller John Sharp
Utah:
-Liquor Control Commission Chair & Businessman Sam Granato
Vermont:
-Senator Patrick Leahy
Washington:
-Senator Patty Murray
Wisconsin:
-Senator Russ Feingold

Republican Retirements, Resignations & Passings
Sam Brownback (R-KS): Announced retirement, 12/18/08
Christopher "Kit" Bond (R-MO): Announced retirement, 1/8/09
George Voinovich (R-OH): Announced retirement, 1/12/09
Judd Gregg (R-NH): Announced retirement (we think), 2/12/09
Jim Bunning (R-KY): Announced retirement, 7/27/09
Mel Martinez (R-FL): Officially resigned, 9/9/09

Primary Challengers to GOP Incumbents
Arizona (John McCain):
-Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth
-Businessman Jim Deakin
Georgia (Johnny Isakson):
-Congressman Paul Broun (rumored)
Louisiana (David Vitter):
-Former State Senator James David Cain (considering)
-Retired Lieutenant General Russel Honore (rumored)
-Retired State Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor (rumored)
North Carolina (Richard Burr):
-Asheville City Councilman Eddie Burks
Utah (Robert Bennett):
-Businesswoman Cherilyn Eagar
-Businessman James Williams
-Businessman Tim Bridgewater
-Former gubernatorial counsel Mike Lee
-Former Juab County Attorney (and gubernatorial brother) David Leavitt (rumored)

Primary Challengers to GOP Establishment-Anointed Candidates
Arkansas (John Boozman):
-State Senator Gilbert Baker
-Businessman Curtis Coleman
-State Senator Kim Hendren
-2004 Senate nominee Jim Holt
Colorado (Jane Norton):
-Weld County DA Ken Buck
-Businessman Cleve Tidwell
-Former State Senator Tom Wiens
Connecticut (Rob Simmons):
-Businesswoman Linda McMahon
-Economist Peter Schiff
-2004 Senate Nominee Jack Orchulli (considering)
Delaware (Mike Castle):
-2008 Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell
Missouri (Roy Blunt):
-State Senator Chuck Purgason
New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte):
-1996 Gubernatorial Nominee Ovide Lamontagne
-Businessman Jim Bender
-Businessman William Binnie

Right-Leaning Candidates
Arizona:
-Insurance Consultant Rick Biondi (Libertarian)
-Business Consultant Ian Gilyeat (independent)
Arkansas:
-Veteran Trevor Drown (independent)
California:
-Activist Gail Lightfoot (Libertarian)
Colorado:
-Businessman Maclyn Stringer (Libertarian)
Florida:
-Professor Marshall DeRosa (Constitution)
-Veteran Alex Snitker (Libertarian)
-Conservative activist Bernie DeCastro
Georgia:
-Radio personality Eric Von Haessler (Libertarian)
-Pilot Chuck Donovan (Libertarian)
Kansas:
-Activist Joe Bellis (Reform)
Louisiana:
-Anthony Gentile (Libertarian)
-Vietnam veteran William Robert Lang (independent)
Missouri:
-Jerry Beck (Constitution)
-Jonathan Dine (Libertarian)
Nevada:
-Businessman Jon Ashjian (Tea Party)
-Conservative activist Jim Duensing (Libertarian)
-Veteran Jeff Durbin (independent)
New Hampshire:
-Businessman & veteran Ken Blevens (Libertarian)
New York-B:
-Activist Jacques Ditte (Conservative)
North Carolina:
-Business analyst Mike Beitler (Libertarian)
Ohio:
-Dr. Michael Pryce (Tea Party)
-Steve Linnabary (Libertarian)
-Electrical engineer Eric Deaton (independent)
Oregon:
-Marc Delphine (Libertarian)
Pennsylvania:
-Businessman Mike Yilit (independent)
Texas:
-Veteran Jon Roland (Libertarian)
Vermont:
-John LaPierre (independent)
Wisconsin:
-Cumberland Alderman Rob Taylor (Constitution)

Links
-Democratic National Committee
-Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
-DSCC's YouTube Page

-CQPolitics Balance of Power Scorecard (regularly updated)
-Swing State Project Competitive Senate Race Ratings (8/11/09)
-Cook Political Report Senate Race Ratings (7/30/09)
-Rothenberg Political Report 2010 Senate Ratings (7/27/09)
-Rasmussen Reports 2010 Election Polls
-Real Clear Politics' 2008 Senate Latest Polls
-Pollster.com 2008 Senate Elections
-National Journal 2008 Senate Race Rankings (7/23/08)
-Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Senate Sensibilities (6/19/08)

-The Hill
-Politico
-Roll Call

-2010 Senate Elections Wikipedia Page
-U.S. Senate Seat-Holders Chart, 1978-present
-Pollster.com
-Project Vote Smart
-An Inconvenient Truth
-Senator Chuck Schumer's Positively American
-Americans United for Change
-Empowering Veterans
-Vote Vets
-Electoral-Vote.com
-Memeorandum

Blog Roll
Senate 2008 Guru

-All Spin Zone
-AmericaBlog
-Atrios
-Bob Geiger
-Booman Tribune
-Campaign Diaries
-The Caucus (NY Times)
-Common Ground (DSCC)
-Congress Matters
-CQPolitics
-CQPolitics Eye on 2010
-Crooks and Liars
-Daily Kos
-The Democratic Daily
-Digby
-Down with Tyranny!
-Elect Blue
-Electile Dysfunction
-Firedoglake
-First Read (MSNBC)
-FiveThirtyEight.com
-The Fix (Washington Post)
-The Gavel (Speaker Pelosi)
-The Group News Blog
-Gun Toting Liberal
-Hotline Blogometer
-Hotline On Call
-The Huffington Post
-Kicking Ass (DNC)
-Left in the West
-Liberal Values
-Marc Ambinder
-MyDD
-Open Left
-The Plum Line (Greg Sargent)
-Political Animal
-Political Base
-The Political Carnival
-Political Ticker (CNN)
-Political Wire
-Politics1
-Progressive Blog Digest
-Progressive Blue
-Real Clear Politics Blog
-Real Clear Politics: Politics Nation
-The Rothenberg Political Report
-Scholars & Rogues
-Senatus
-The Stakeholder (DCCC)
-Swing State Project
-Talking Points Memo
-Think Progress
-VetVoice
-War Room (Salon)
-Wonkette

-43rd State Blues (ID)
-The Albany Project (NY)
-AZ Netroots (AZ)
-Barefoot and Progressive (KY)
-Bleeding Heartland (IA)
-Blogging Blue (WI)
-Blue Arkansas (AR)
-Blue Hampshire (NH)
-Blue Indiana (IN)
-Blue NC (NC)
-Blue Oklahoma (OK)
-Blue Oregon (OR)
-Buckeye State Blog (OH)
-Burnt Orange Report (TX)
-Calitics (CA)
-Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis (AK)
-Colorado Pols (CO)
-The Daily Gotham (NY)
-Delaware Liberal (DE)
-Daily Kingfish (LA)
-Ditch Mitch KY (KY)
-Doc's Political Parlor (AL)
-Fired Up! Missouri (MO)
-FLA Politics (FL)
-Forward Kansas (KS)
-Free State Politics (MD)
-Green Mountain Daily (VT)
-Horse's Ass Seattle (WA)
-Indigo Journal (SC)
-Kansas Jackass (KS)
-Left in Alabama (AL)
-Legum's New Line (MD)
-The Locust Fork Journal (AL)
-Maryland Politics Watch (MD)
-The MountainGoat Report (ID)
-My Left Nutmeg (CT)
-North Decoder (ND)
-Ohio Daily Blog (OH)
-The Pennsylvania Progressive (PA)
-Prarie State Blue (IL)
-Progress Illinois (IL)
-Progressive Alaska (AK)
-Public Policy Polling (NC)
-Red State Rebels (ID)
-Show Me Progress (MO)
-Square State (CO)
-Texas Kaos (TX)
-Tondee's Tavern (GA)
-Uppity Wisconsin (WI)
-The Wasatch Watcher (UT)
-Washblog (WA)


Cheering Them On
-Draft Coop (NC)
-Draft Elaine Marshall (NC)
-Draft Jane Kidd (GA)

Revealing Their Record
-Big Oil Blunt (MO)
-Carly FAILorina (CA)
-Cheating on the Truth (LA)
-Cut and Run Charlie Crist (FL)
-Dirty Deals Dino (WA)
-Doing a Vitter! The David Vitter Hypocrisy Watch (LA)
-Forgotten Crimes (LA)
-The Idiot Factor: Todd Tiahrt's Folly (KS)
-Mr. Portman's Make Believe Neighborhood (OH)
-Not One Red Cent (NRSC)
-Peter King Watch (NY)
-Puppet Jane Norton (CO)
-The REAL McCain (AZ)
-Republican Against Richard Burr (NC)
-Rob Portman: Architect of the Bush Economy (OH)
-Turncoat Trey (KY)
-Two-Faced Kirk (IL)
-Washington Insiders (MO)

YouTube Video Library

The Hall of Fame YouTube Political Video: George Allen and "Macaca"


On Republican Obstructionism


Republican Scandals of 2007


DSCC Chair Bob Menendez Says Hello


MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan Enters the Race


GA-Sen: Georgia can't afford Johnny Isakson


Google Ads

Amazon Ads



Informative Widgets





Senate Guru

Early Friday Morning Tidbits

by: Senate Guru

Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:17 AM EDT


  • Alaska: A new Research 2000 poll commissioned by Daily Kos sees Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading scandalicious Ted Stevens 48-43.  Kos also has Stevens' pollster confirming their camp's concern over Stevens' standing in Alaska.  Really great stuff.

  • New Mexico: New Survey USA numbers see Congressman Tom Udall obliterating both Republican Congresscritters, leading Steve Pearce 60-36 and Heather Wilson 61-35.  Hot damn!

  • Maine: While the print media in Maine seems to be heavily in Susan Collins' pocket, this piece gives me hope that Maine's TV news may be more attentive.  You should really take the time to watch the entire segment:

    Democratic Congressman Tom Allen continues to highlight Collins' failure to stand up to the Bush administration.  And all Susan Collins responds with is dismissiveness.  I suspect Maine voters won't be as dismissive.  Meanwhile, you can add the Farm Bill to the list of issues on which Tom Allen and Olympia Snowe are on one side and Susan Collins stands alone on the other.  ME-Dems' Communications Director Rebecca Pollard takes a thorough look at how Collins' vote here has hurt Maine's farmers and families.

  • North Carolina: Of their most recent polling on NC-Sen seeing a tight race between State Senator Kay Hagan and Republican Elizabeth Dole, Public Policy Polling notes:

    Kay Hagan has more room to move up in her match with Elizabeth Dole than Dole does. 55% of undecided voters in that race are Democrats, while just 24% are Republicans. If Hagan can shore up her standing with her own party, that's an even closer race than our poll showed.

    Very, very promising.

  • Colorado: Commemorating Bob Schaffer's "Mount Macaca moment," the DSCC has released a bitingly satirical jab at Schaffer:

    The DSCC has also offered up the Bob Schaffer Geography Quiz.  Seriously, who is wasting their money contributing to Schaffer's campaign anymore?

  • Minnesota: Al Franken has brought even more political muscle onto his 2008 Senate campaign: Stephanie Schriock, manager of Senator Jon Tester's successful ousting of Conrad Burns in Montana last cycle.

  • Idaho: Former Congressman Larry LaRocco slams Jim Risch for hiding from the public by ducking debates.

  • Need more proof that conservative windbags supply themselves with nothing more than substance-free talking points without actually possessing any real knowledge of what they're talking about?

    Kudos to Tweety.  Usually he annoys the heck out of me.  I'd like to see more of this in the future.

  • Senate Guru :: Early Friday Morning Tidbits
    Tags: (All Tags)
    Print Friendly View Send As Email
    On the topic of smackdown...
    Here's a clip of Keith Olbermann at his finest in his ever so eloquent and fierce criticism of Dubya:  

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21...


    My biggest beef with the news organization is how
    They didn't call her out on her bulls***.  All she said was, "That's absurd, Tom knows better than that."

    Well, if he knows better than that, why did she do it after Katrina for FEMA?  Was SHE playing politics too?  I mean, come on.  What the hell?


    I, too, give points to Tweety . . .
    . . . for that excellent smackdown last night.  I couldn't believe that that unhinged rightie talk-radio guy even has the credibility to offer commentary on a mainstream news channel.  But, then, that's the mainstream media for ya!  

    With all that being said . . . watch out, 'cause Tweety just might be attempting to stealthily endear himself to the left, in anticipation of his potential senate run in Pennsylvania in two years . . .  


    Lol if Tweety keeps that up
    Senator Tweety isn't looking to bad.

    He actually isn't that bad I'm one of the few people who enjoys Hardball and he's not as bad as everyone thinks.

    "Democrats never agree on anything, that's why they're Democrats. If they agreed with each other, they would be Republicans."-Will Rogers


    [ Parent ]
    Alaska
    One thing makes me nervous about Alaska, and that's Montana. With the Tester-Burns race, you had polls showing Tester way ahead pretty much all the way through. Then we almost lost it on e-day. When you have an entrenched but corrupt incumbent in a solidly red state, it seems like their poll numbers get artificially depressed a bit by the embarrassment factor. Once people get in the privacy of the voting booth, muscular memory takes over and many of them cast for the guy who has brought home all that pork over the years.

    The poll numbers . . .
    . . . in the Tester-Burns race actually did narrow quite a bit before election day, so the close margin was not unforeseen.  Tester started out with higher poll numbers because his candidacy made a lot of people pay attention earlier than they otherwise would have.  The polls reflected those voters' favorable opinions of Tester, while the people who liked Burns were not tuned in yet.  As November got closer, Tester's numbers stayed the same, while Burns' increased, simply because the people who hadn't been paying attention, started tuning in.  A full month before election day in '06, nobody was expecting a blowout in Montana.

    The same very well may happen in Alaska.  We'll see.


    [ Parent ]
    Well
    You still can't discount last-minute tactics such as 3AM phone-annoyances pretending to be our candidate--tactics that could potentially give the R a boost of 1-5 points right before election day.

    Of course, I for one hope that they can't try that because it's illegal.  It probably is, but since when did that stop them?

    Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
    Democratic Future ActBlue page


    [ Parent ]
    Closing the gap
    New Rasmussen poll on ME race

    Collins - 52%
    Allen - 42%

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


    Thats still too big
    Considering the climate. Allen is in a blue state that is going to go for Barack Obama by about 60%. This could add a little boost we don't see in polls, but as far as Bushie Collins goes.... she is doing impressively well considering.

    Thats about the margin Sherrod Brown was at 2 years ago versus Mike DeWine (I'm from Ohio so I'm most familiar with this race, accept my anecdote). Of course Sherrod won with 56%, so maybe everything I said above is complete crap. The climate actually got progressively worse between June and November 2006.

    Is the climate going to get better or worse for Republicans? We can't answer that. At any moment a scandal can break, things could get worse in Iraq, things could heat up with Iran, we could be attacked again, the Bush economy could magically get better (now I'm pushing it!).... we have no idea what 5 months bring.


    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    While the gap is still larger than I would like, it is much lower than it was just last time around. In six more weeks, she could be below 50%, and we have nearly six month till the election.

    Collins is still popular, but most consider her a moderate and  it is easy to make the case that she has constantly followed Bush's lead. Once the campaign heats up and more voters see her record, she won't have that lead for long.  


    [ Parent ]
    Of course it's still too big.
    But it is nevertheless reassuring to see some movement in our direction.

    As I stated in a comment over at the Swing State Project, Barack Obama needs to do some big rallies in Maine.  Out of all the existing senate candidates, I would say that Tom Allen is the one who would benefit the most from Obama's coattails.  


    [ Parent ]
    A 6 point move in just the last 6 weeks - with SIX months to go n/t


    [ Parent ]
    If Obama is going to win by 20 points, then
    this poll underpolls Allen.  

    Right now they have Obama winning Maine 51-38.  That's a 13 point margin.  Plentry of room for Obama and Allen to grow if that's under where he is likely to land.  


    [ Parent ]
    KS- Rasmussen shows Slattery down by 12
    Slattery- 40%
    Roberts- 52%

    Interesting tidbits from the poll:
    - Roberts garner 82% of Republican votes and Slattery garner 75% of Democratic votes, lots of room to grow for Slattery.  Slattery leads Roberts among unaffiliated voters by 3%.
    - Roberts favourable rating is 60/34 while Slattery's rating is 46/38/17.  Roberts favourable is damn high.

    http://rasmussenreports.com/pu...


    Slattery....
    His unfavorable is higher than the incumbent's..... WTF! I'm sorry, but thats the worst sign ever.

    [ Parent ]
    Tom Allen's is too.
    Are we giving up on these races because of it?  Or what?  


    [ Parent ]
    If the gaps are that big
    It should be considered. I can't think of many instances where an incumbent was replaced by someone with higher negatives. It can work vice versa, an incumbent with higher negatives still wins if the negatives aren't higher.... but the challenger...

    I'm just going off what history and previous campaign work experience has taught me.


    [ Parent ]
    typo
    What I meant to say:

    It can work vice versa, an incumbent with higher negatives still wins if the negatives aren't much higher.... but the challenger...


    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussens poll today, which
    exemplifies the ignorance here, you're basing this off of one poll.  You're basing, it sounds like, whether we should invest or not in a race based on one poll.  Allen is down only 10 points, a vast improvement, but since his favorables are about 12% lower and his disapprovals are 6% higher, we should just give up.  Forget the fact that he made a leap forward, making Maine undoubtedly more competitive.  Just drop everything.  Quit supporting Allen.  

    [ Parent ]
    Sigh, you just don't understand
    I said a race can't be won if the disapprovals of the challenger are higher and that is should be considered at some point, I never said give up on it right then and there. Since I'm guessing you've never had any remote campaign experience, I am going to tell what needs to be done in this case. If the challenger's campaign doesn't start early to focus on bringing the incumbent's disapprovals up (which adds mud to the race) or bring his disapprovals down (which is slightly harder) we might as well drop everything. You can't wait till one month before the election to change this, because its a long term strategy.

    I will give the benefit of the doubt and say Slattery and Allen's campaign managers are privately working on this.. after all Schumer has to approve the staff and I'm quite sure Schumer is capable of approving competent campaign managers.

    Please stop flailing your "ignorant accusations" when you are only making assumptions yourself.


    [ Parent ]
    Premium Sponsors

    Menu

    Make a New Account

    Username:

    Password:



    Forget your username or password?


    Featured Sponsors

    About
    Senate Guru is a privately run blog, not connected to any political campaign, candidate, committee or organization.

    Contact the Senate Guru at senate2008guru at yahoo dot com.

    Join the Senate Guru Facebook Group.

    Subscribe to Senate Guru's RSS feed:


    Click to favorite Senate Guru on Technorati



    Standard Sponsors

    Search




    Advanced Search


    Amazon Ads


    Powered by: SoapBlox