Q1 Take and End-of-March Cash-on-Hand Fundraising Numbers

Hmmmmm

John Kerry is definitely someone we should pressure to use it or lose it.  He has over 9 million, like, he probably needs a fraction of that to win.  He could probably win and not even spend a cent.  He should donate about 2 million of that to the DSCC, or 3 million.....

Max Baucus, same as Kerry, use it or lose it, 2 million from you as well!

I worry about the huge deficeit in Sheehan's CoH compared to Sununu's.  It is pretty huge, but it always seems like it wont matter because he starts so far below already.  

I worry about Oregon a lot with fundraising.  The DSCC will have to donate heavily to that state.  This is where our huge fundraising advantage with the DSCC will help a lot.

I do not think we can win Texas whatsoever.  Look at the CoH advantage, we will not win, absolutely no way.  The DSCC could donate $10 million to Texas to make it more even but with that $10 million, we could win 2-3 other smaller races like Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Carolina.  No way.  We can't win unless Noriega raises some serious dough.

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by: AndrewMN @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:58:57 PM CDT

On Kerry, Shaheen and Oregon

While I agree that I'd love to see Kerry ship a cool million over to the DSCC, I will offer that he has been using his mega-e-mail list to raise for Democratic candidates for House and Senate around the country as much as anyone - and very regularly - not two weeks go by where I don't get a fundraising e-mail for another candidate or group of candidates.  I think it's part of the reason he only raised $330,000 for himself in Q1.

As for Shaheen, if we're only facing a 2-to-1 CoH advantage for Sununu, I'm thrilled.  Remember that there were a number of 2-to-1 spending deficits in 2006 (Talent over McCaskill, Burns over Tester - and Allen over Webb was 3-to-1).  Sununu's record is beyond out-of-step with New Hampshire.  New Hampshire is trending very blue.  And Shaheen has the solid polling advantage.  I really think Sununu would need well over a 3-to-1 spending advantage to muddy the record enough to win.

As for Oregon, yeah, Gordon Smith will have the cash advantage, but $5M doesn't frighten me in the slightest.  I expect Oregon will be one of the states where the DSCC will use a good chunk of resources.  No defenses other than Louisiana.  And virtually no need to spend in Virginia.  Little need to spend in New Hampshire and New Mexico unless polling gets flippy.  Expect some really good money to get spent in Oregon (and Colorado, Minnesota, Alaska, Maine and Mississippi).  Expect some money to also get spent in states like Oklahoma, Idaho and Nebraska, but less since they're just less expensive states.

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by: Senate Guru @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 14:23:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

keep in mind that as long as

shaheen is outraising him each quarter... by the time the election comes by their totals should be about even. she's only behind because he's been raising funds since he was elected.
with a lead in the polls and fundraising clip... CoH is just a front.

It's difficult to get the news from poems

but men die every day for lack of what is found there

--William Carlos Williams

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by: RichardPlatypus @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 17:11:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree with MA-Sen and MT-Sen

Baucus and Kerry ought to be contributing to the DSCC or even the DNC. I think Kerry's low fundraising numbers is due to him helping Obama, he seems to be directing his donors over to the big O.

It looks like Warner is going to be able to afford a huge donation to the DSCC as well.

This is good, real good.

What are Green Party's candidate Rebekah Kennedy's numbers for AR-Sen? I know shes not going to win, but if she doesn't dent into Pryor's funds he can make a healthy transfer too.

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by: Bobby @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 13:44:03 PM CDT

AR-Sen Green

Rebekah Kennedy raised $1,141 in Q1 and had operating expenses of $2,333.  She reports, as of the end of March, $3,541 in cash-on-hand and $2,979 in debts.  In other words, her campaign has $562 after debt.  So she can send a single letter to around 1,400 Arkansans.  That's it.

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by: Senate Guru @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 17:31:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What stands out to me?

We need a MAJOR use it or lose it campaign.

Jay Rockefeller has 3,813,756 CoH. That will go up. He doesn't need a dime of it. He should send 4 million to the DSCC.

Tim Johnson needs some but he has 2.5k already. He could easily afford 1 or two million to the DSCC.  

Jack Reed has 3,445,741. He can afford 3 million of that or so.

4,170,211 for Carl Levin. Send four million to the DSCC.

Kerry has a insane amount of money. Send 9 million to the DSCC.

Super Max has 6,394,024. I think he can afford 6 million to the DSCC.

Dick Durbin isn't going to lose. He has 7,567,277. Give at least 6 million to the DSCC.

Pryor doesn't even have anyone to run against. Plop 3 million into the DSCC's bank account.

We are talking about 30 million or so dollars added to the bank account.

How about we use that to win a 65 seat majority?

Anything is possible.

In other numbers. Slatts did pretty decent. He needs to do better but it isn't as bad as I had thought. Musgrove did horribly (Nebraska is now number 10 for me). Stevens is going to win his primary and McCain Jr. might not.

Also one more thing. Republicans really, really are completely pathetic.

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by: Populista @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 13:44:43 PM CDT

Use It or Lose It

We definitely need a good Use It or Lose It campaign with the Senate and the DSCC.  I wrote a column on it for MyDD in December.

But we shouldn't just focus on those safe candidates up this year because we have the numbers in front of us.  We need to focus particularly on Senators not up this year who have good bankrolls.

In the aforelinked column, I highlight that Evan Bayh has over $10 million in his bankroll (obviously to prep for a Prez bid or entice for a VP selection).  And he hasn't, to the best of my knowledge, given to the DSCC this cycle.  At all.  He could easily send a million bucks over, curry lots of good will, and be no worse for the wear.

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by: Senate Guru @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 14:27:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yep.

A fantastic column too. Why don't you still post a weekly column. Did they kick you off or did you leave?

We could easily get another 20k out of those senators.

50k of transfers. We could decide to make Wyoming competitive if we wanted with that kind of cash.

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by: Populista @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 15:01:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Just time constraints

The team over at MyDD are phenomenal - and have been tremendously supportive of the Guru.  I just scaled back my writing over there purely because of time constraints.

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by: Senate Guru @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 15:28:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

pryor has a green opponent

rebekah kennedy. i say we (or those of us that live in arkansas) threaten to support her (in lieu of his sole Democrat vote against last year's anti-war resolution as well as votes for, uh, torture bills) and embarrass him by putting her over 10 percent...... unless he supports the party's coffers a little better than he supports our caucus...

if yr strategic, the green party does exist for something other than being tarred & feathered.

It's difficult to get the news from poems

but men die every day for lack of what is found there

--William Carlos Williams

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by: RichardPlatypus @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 17:14:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Very Helpful information

I would recommend two things
1. Make a "Total Raised" column.  Sort of like SSP, but it helps to look at the big picture.  

2. Take Larry Kilgore off the Republican Primary challenges, on the left side, because he lost.    

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by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 14:14:53 PM CDT

Very interesting info

the part about Johnson I will disagree with, 2.5 million to 200,000 seems like a lot but Dykstra has ties with the oil industry and I could see them coming in late, since I would be willing to bet this is his last campaign I would guess that he would donate some if he had a large sum left after the campaign.....

The future will be better tomorrow: by Dan Quayle (a prime example of what education means to republicans)

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by: joeboo22 @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 16:26:56 PM CDT

Who else is overly excited?

Whats amazing is that most of us consider Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Colorado top pick ups without looking at the fundraising. But when you do, you see that they won't even need DSCC help (pending no George Allen moments).

Now, we can only hope that the NRSC does spend in those states, but I'm guessing they'll limit it to firewall states like Minnesota, Alaska, and Oregon. (I hate to place Maine on tier 3)

Of course if safe Dems of this cycle (Max Baucus, Kerry, Reed, Pryor, Warner, Durbin, Rockefeller) and safe senior Dems from other cycles (Clinton, Bayh, Carper, Feinstein to name a few) could each donate 2 million each, we'd have 22 million right there. Thats enough to make Idaho, Maine, AND Oklahoma more competitive when they honestly shouldn't be.

Now 2 million from each of those Senators is reasonable, asking for 3 or 4 million from some of them is still reasonable. We are sitting on 20 perhaps 30 million  extra dollars.

This is not as glorious as it looks, remember, they're sitting no just as much. McConnel can spare it; Bunning, Voinovich, Specter are likely to retire and don't need a warchest. They can give it up.

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by: Bobby @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 16:30:32 PM CDT

Use it or lose it

Politicians have to weigh up their personal interests with those of their party. They will always be more conservative than activists want because it is their jobs on the line and you never know what is round the corner. Also those that want to move up will keep most of their money and only give if it is politically advantageous. In Senate terms that applies to anyone with Presidential ambitions.

Use it or lose it will be more successful nearer the election. If the Democrats look like they could win big and incumbents feel safe. If Obama is clear of McCain come the convention and Dem candidates are doing well Schumer can go to Senators and sell donations on the basis that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity. All money will be useful this time because the table is so large.

The focus should be on taking as many seats out of play early so they don't need DSCC help, or only need t match the NRSC. I'd focus on small states with good candidates so Kleeb in Nebraska and Rice in Oklahoma once you're past the top tier. You get more bang for your buck here.

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by: kieran @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 17:12:27 PM CDT

Well

Who is Jeff Beatty, and how did he manage to raise nearly a million dollars in Massachusetts? (And yet, he has only $81 COH?)

Greg Fisher outraising Bruce Lunsford was pretty nice, it's too bad he has such a huge name recognition deficit.

Roger Wicker's fundraising looks pretty strong too, maybe Mississippi will be less competitive than we thought.

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by: Nautilator @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 13:17:09 PM CDT