| Arlen Specter has been a U.S. Senator for twenty-eight-and-a-half years, all but a little more than three months of which have been as a member of the Republican Party. He has more than $7.5 million in the bank, and he enjoys the seemingly-nominal support of President Obama and the active support of Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell. Specter has a lead in the polls, the money, the seniority, and the establishment support.
And Arlen Specter will lose the 2010 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate to a second-term Congressman with about half as much money and a major deficit in name recognition to overcome.
Joe Sestak will defeat Specter for the Democratic nomination (and go on to defeat Republican Pat Toomey for the U.S. Senate seat). How will Congressman Sestak overcome the money, poll, and name ID deficits to win? Let's break it down.
The Money (or: Ed Rendell Can't Stop Sestak's Fundraising)
When Arlen Specter switched Party affiliation from Republican to Democrat (about one month after Specter explicitly reaffirmed his status as a Republican), some high-profile Democrats immediately came to support Specter. No Democrat has been more vocal on Specter's behalf than Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell. In a number of interviews, Rendell has seemingly come close to threatening to personally end Congressman Sestak's political career if Congressman Sestak moved forward with a primary challenge to Specter. Many believed that Rendell's political machine would have the muscle to do just that, to stop the flow of campaign contributions to Congressman Sestak and effectively end Congressman Sestak's ability to mount a campaign.
The numbers have proven otherwise. In the first fundraising quarter of 2009, for January through March, Specter raised $1.28 million and brought his bankroll to $6.74 million. Over the same time, Congressman Sestak raised $550,000 and brought his bankroll to $3.34 million. So, starting off, Congressman Sestak had about half the funds Specter did (that's a good start, not a bad one, by the way). Specter then switched Party affiliation in April, and Rendell began making comments like Sestak would "get killed" in a primary against Specter. Rendell got one of his disciples, Joe Torsella, to give up his Senate bid. No doubt Rendell spent time on the phones encouraging his supporters and donors to not back Congressman Sestak.
Did Rendell's efforts to throw a wet blanket on Congressman Sestak's fundraising work? Nope. In the second fundraising quarter of 2009, for April through June, Specter raised $1.74 million and brought his bankroll to $7.56 million. Over the same time, however, Congressman Sestak raised just over $1 million and brought his bankroll to $4.27 million. Not only did Congressman Sestak nearly double his fundraising from the first quarter to the second quarter, but his bankroll also grew from 49.6% of Specter's bankroll to 56.5% of Specter's bankroll. Over the course of the primary, Congressman Sestak may well wind up having about two-thirds as much money to spend as Specter - and that is very good news.
Why is it good news that Congressman Sestak will have about two-thirds as much money to spend as Specter? Take into consideration the following: Jon Tester defeated Conrad Burns while only spending 61% as much as Burns did; Jim Webb defeated George Allen while only spending 50% as much as Allen did; and, Claire McCaskill defeated Jim Talent while only spending 47% as much as Talent did.
In short, a solid Democrat with a strong message can defeat a flawed incumbent with only one-half to two-thirds as much money. The numbers have illustrated Rendell's inability to shut down Congressman Sestak's fundraising. If anything, Congressman Sestak standing up to Specter and a hierarchy telling him to sit down will only strengthen his fundraising. Congressman Sestak will have the resources to mount a successful campaign.
The Polls (or: Specter's Topped Out, but Sestak's Just Getting Started)
Here is the rundown of independent, non-partisan, head-to-head polls I've seen between Specter and Congressman Sestak. (Thank goodness for Swing State Project!)
Congressman Sestak has been polling like someone largely unknown statewide - there's no surprise there. In fact, that he could poke into the thirties in one poll is pretty outstanding. Meanwhile, Specter has been a U.S. Senator for nearly three decades, and he's topped out in the mid-50s. Specter's numbers have nowhere to go but down. Meanwhile, Congressman Sestak is only just beginning to raise his name ID across the state and provide Democrats with a true Democratic alternative to Specter.
To put it in perspective, a late April 2006 Quinnipiac poll showed Senator Joe Lieberman leading upstart primary challenger Ned Lamont by a whopping 65-19 margin. With a strong message and amazing field plan, Lamont won the August 8, 2006 primary by a 52-48 margin, a 50-point swing in just three and a half months. That Congressman Sestak starts off with only a 20 to 30 point deficit is a terrific jumping off point. With Pennsylvania's primary election not until May 18, 2010 - more than nine months away - Congressman Sestak will have more than enough time to build the statewide organization and do the outreach necessary to eliminate the primary poll gap.
The Politics (or: One Used to Be a Loyal Republican)
This race is not a general election; it is a Democratic primary. The voters will be Democrats. Since retiring from the Navy, where he was non-partisan, Congressman Sestak has always been a consistent and proud Democrat. Arlen Specter, on the other hand, has been a Democrat for the past few months and a Republican for the previous few decades. I don't think the voters will quickly forget. Of course, in case voters' memories get a little fuzzy, there will be plenty of material with which to remind them - like this aforementioned snippet from March 18, only about a month before switching Party affiliation:
"To eliminate any doubt, I am a Republican and I am running for re-election in 2010 as a Republican on the Republican ticket,'' Specter said Wednesday evening.
There is also some enlightening video as to who the real Arlen Specter is (the top two videos are from this past Spring, the bottom two are from 2004):
I don't think a majority of Pennsylvania Democrats will be too keen on casting a ballot for the man who George W. Bush called "a firm ally when it matters most" or for the man who Rick Santorum called "the key vote" in passing George W. Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. When the comparison is made between the Democratic values for which Congressman Sestak has stood and the Republican "values" for which Specter has stood for decades, the choice will become very easy to a majority of Pennsylvania Democrats.
The Players (or: One Has Integrity, One Simply Doesn't)
In a feeble attempt to innoculate himself against criticism for having switched Party affiliation out of political expediency, Specter went on the attack (though flailed is more like it). Here is the quote, along with the best response, courtesy of kos:
It boggles the mind.
"Congressman Sestak is a flagrant hypocrite in challenging my being a real Democrat when he did not register as a Democrat until 2006 just in time to run for Congress," Specter said in the statement. "His lame excuse for avoiding party affiliation, because he was in the [military] service, is undercut by his documented disinterest in the political process."
His "lame excuse"? Sestak was an admiral, and the military should be an apolitical organization, at least in functioning democracies. That Specter -- the sleaziest political opportunist in the entire US Senate (a mighty accomplishment, given the bunch that inhabit that place) -- would deign insult a real Democrat for not politicizing his military service is beyond the pale. Given the nature of this attack, it's as if Specter has forgotten he switched parties, continuing to operate out of the Karl Rove playbook.
That's who Arlen Specter is, and that's who Joe Sestak is. Joe Sestak is the highest ranking military veteran to ever serve in Congress. He's a former Admiral who is also helping to lead the fight to repeal Don't Ask, Don't Tell. And Arlen Specter is a guy who thought an effective fundraising effort was to set up a misleading website that appeared to raise money for cancer research, but actually sent contributions right into Specter's campaign coffers.
In the press conference at which he announced his Party affiliation switch, Arlen Specter said:
In the course of the last several months, since the stimulus vote, I have traveled the state, surveyed the sentiments of the Republican Party in Pennsylvania, done public opinion polls, observed other public opinion polls, and have found that the prospects for winning a Republican primary are bleak.
Is Arlen Specter a Democrat because he has changed his views on key issues? No. Is Arlen Specter a Democrat because of important principles that guide him as an elected official? No. Arlen Specter is a Democrat only because public opinion polls said that he couldn't win a Republican primary. That is what Arlen Specter wants to reduce the Democratic Party to - an avenue for his political expediency. Specter's tactics are cynical, craven, and self-important. Specter is concerned about his job, not the jobs of Pennsylvanians.
Consider Specter's voting record in just 2009 alone:
Clearly, Arlen Specter is only as much of a Democrat as he is forced to be at any given time. As a Republican, he votes like a Republican. After the switch, he throws a few more votes the Democrats' way to curry a little favor. He doesn't vote solidly with the Democrats until he receives the pressure of a primary challenge from Congressman Sestak. As such, we have every reason to believe that, if Specter were to win re-election, he would spend the next six years voting like, well, Arlen Specter, and not voting like, well, a Democrat. Congressman Sestak rightly dubbed Specter a "flight risk," someone who will leave the Democratic Party hanging whenever his feet are not held to the fire.
Joe Sestak, on the other hand, is a proud Democrat with strong convictions who will fight for Pennsylvania families because he realizes that, as an elected official, he works for Pennsylvania's families rather than the other way around.
Joe Sestak will defeat Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania's Democratic Senate primary because he works for Pennsylvania while Specter expects Pennsylvanians to work for him. Specter is a coward; and, all the threats that Ed Rendell has to offer won't stop Congressman Sestak from raising the funds or putting together the campaign operation necessary to dethrone Arlen Specter. |
