Q2 2009 Take and End-of-June Cash-on-Hand Fundraising Numbers

by: Senate Guru

Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 16:08 PM EDT

But first, here's the numbers from the Party's Senate Committees for Q2:

At the end of 2008, the DSCC had nearly $11 million in debt compared to the NRSC's less than $5 million in debt.  The NRSC had a cash-on-hand-minus-debt advantage over the DSCC of about $6.5 million.  That advantage has now nearly evaporated as the DSCC continues to show up the NRSC.

Observations:

1) Delaware's Mike Castle and New York's Peter King are not fundraising like Republicans who really want to run for Senate.  Castle's $125K is already kind of low to start, and it's even more stark when one notes that almost $110K of that came from PACs - i.e. he only raised about $15,000 from actual people in all of Q2.  Similarly, in expensive New York, Peter King's less than a quarter million raised in Q2 (with less than $1.3 million in the bank) is not statewide campaign money.  On the Democratic side, Florida's Corrine Brown taking in a mere $44K, with only $40K in the bank, suggests that she is not serious about a primary challenge to Congressman Kendrick Meek.

2) We have telling numbers in two Democratic primaries.  In Ohio, Q2 was a reply of Q1, where Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher crushed Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner for the second quarter in a row, around $1 million to around a quarter-million.  Fisher's cash-on-hand advantage is approaching 10-1 over Brunner.  Relatively bleak numbers for Brunner.  At this point, expect Fisher to point to campaign viability as an argument for locking up the nomination and boxing out Brunner.  In Kentucky, state Attorney General Jack Conway decimated Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, 1.33 million to 0.3 million.  That's a million dollar difference.  If Conway's support among KY-Dems stands relative to his fundraising over Mongiardo, he is well on his way to the nomination.

3) Speaking of the Kentucky Senate race, yup, Jim Bunning's stand-in in-waiting, Trey Grayson, outraised Bunning.  Bunning still has a cash-on-hand advantage, and Greyson's line still is that he won't challenge Bunning in a primary.  Nevertheless, those numbers stand out quite a bit.  Let's hope Bunning's stubbornness wins out.

4) In the impending Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, Congressman Joe Sestak's $1+ million quarter should prove that Ed Rendell can't singlehandedly turn off the campaign contribution flow to Sestak.

What do all these numbers tell you?  What stands out?