WaPo's Cillizza has the scoop:
Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter will switch his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat and announced today that he will run in 2010 as a Democrat, according to a statement he released this morning.
Specter's decision would give Democrats a 60 seat filibuster proof majority in the Senate assuming Democrat Al Franken is eventually sworn in as the next Senator from Minnesota. (Former Sen. Norm Coleman is appealing Franken's victory in the state Supreme Court.)
"I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary," said Specter in a statement. "I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for re-election determined in a general election."
He added: "Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans."
Specter as a Democrat would also fundamentally alter the 2010 calculus in Pennsylvania as he was expected to face a difficult primary challenge next year from former Rep. Pat Toomey.
Specter isn't just departing the GOP to become an independent, like Jim Jeffords did in 2001. Specter is becoming a Democrat (in name only?).
As this relates to his 2010 Senate re-election bid, clearly Pat Toomey becomes the frontrunner for the Republican nomination (go Peg Luksik!). Will Pennsylvania and Washington D.C. Democrats get behind Specter? Given that PA and DC Dems have lobbied Specter to switch Parties, I would imagine that the Democratic leadership would at least tacitly have his back. Will anyone more well-known than Joe Torsella and Bill Kortz enter the Democratic primary? Will any of the Allyson Schwartz-Joe Sestak-Patrick Murphy Congressional trio take him on? Time will tell.
MSNBC is reporting that Specter's statement makes note of the fact that he will not be a reliable 60th cloture vote and that his opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act will continue. It was just over a month ago that Arlen Specter said:
To eliminate any doubt, I am a Republican and I am running for re-election in 2010 as a Republican on the Republican ticket.
If he remains an unreliable vote for cloture and continues to oppose EFCA and other initiatives that help working Americans, he will be no more of a Democrat moving forward than he has been previously. A prominent progressive Democrat could boot Specter. Congresswoman Schwartz is the most liberal of the aforementioned Congressional trio. But will she or anyone else put their House seat on the line? No doubt polling will ensue. Stay tuned as the story unfolds.
UPDATE: Here is Arlen Specter's full statement:
April 28, 2009
Statement by Senator Arlen Specter
I have been a Republican since 1966. I have been working extremely hard for the Party, for its candidates and for the ideals of a Republican Party whose tent is big enough to welcome diverse points of view. While I have been comfortable being a Republican, my Party has not defined who I am. I have taken each issue one at a time and have exercised independent judgment to do what I thought was best for Pennsylvania and the nation.
Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans.
When I supported the stimulus package, I knew that it would not be popular with the Republican Party. But, I saw the stimulus as necessary to lessen the risk of a far more serious recession than we are now experiencing.
Since then, I have traveled the State, talked to Republican leaders and office-holders and my supporters and I have carefully examined public opinion. It has become clear to me that the stimulus vote caused a schism which makes our differences irreconcilable. On this state of the record, I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate. I have not represented the Republican Party. I have represented the people of Pennsylvania.
I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary.
I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for re-election determined in a general election.
I deeply regret that I will be disappointing many friends and supporters. I can understand their disappointment. I am also disappointed that so many in the Party I have worked for for more than four decades do not want me to be their candidate. It is very painful on both sides. I thank specially Senators McConnell and Cornyn for their forbearance.
I am not making this decision because there are no important and interesting opportunities outside the Senate. I take on this complicated run for re-election because I am deeply concerned about the future of our country and I believe I have a significant contribution to make on many of the key issues of the day, especially medical research. NIH funding has saved or lengthened thousands of lives, including mine, and much more needs to be done. And my seniority is very important to continue to bring important projects vital to Pennsylvania's economy.
I am taking this action now because there are fewer than thirteen months to the 2010 Pennsylvania Primary and there is much to be done in preparation for that election. Upon request, I will return campaign contributions contributed during this cycle.
While each member of the Senate caucuses with his Party, what each of us hopes to accomplish is distinct from his party affiliation. The American people do not care which Party solves the problems confronting our nation. And no Senator, no matter how loyal he is to his Party, should or would put party loyalty above his duty to the state and nation.
My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords' switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change.
Whatever my party affiliation, I will continue to be guided by President Kennedy's statement that sometimes Party asks too much. When it does, I will continue my independent voting and follow my conscience on what I think is best for Pennsylvania and America.
UPDATE 2: This is brilliant:
Until a new organizing resolution is adopted, Specter's committee seats (Appropriations, Judiciary, Veterans' Affairs, Environment & Public Works, Special Aging) are locked in. He'll be caucusing and (sometimes, anyway) voting as a Democrat, but will be occupying Republican seats.
Democrats should demand Republican agreement to seat [Senator-elect Al] Franken and give him his committee assignments now, or they'll just block a new organizing resolution until he arrives, and change it as they see fit later on. After all, with 60 Democrats (once Franken is finally seated), they can give themselves any ratios they want, whether they opt to remain true to the 60/40 split in the Senate or not, since there won't be enough votes to filibuster an unfair organizing resolution.
But we wouldn't want it to come to that, would we?
Until there's a change, Appropriations goes effectively from 17-13 in favor of Democrats to 18-12. Judiciary to 12-7. Environment to 12-7. Veterans' Affairs to 10-5. Special Aging to 12-7.
UPDATE 3: Specifics from the Obama-Specter phone call:
At 10:32am, President Barack Obama reached Specter and told him "you have my full support" and "thrilled to have you."
Specter told the president, "I'm a loyal Democrat. I support your agenda."
We'll have to wait and see how Specter defines "loyal" and "support."
UPDATE 4: Republicans respond. NRSC Chair John Cornyn:
"Senator Specter's decision today represents the height of political self-preservation. While this presents a short-term disappointment, voters next year will have a clear choice to cast their ballots for a potentially unbridled Democrat super-majority versus the system of checks-and-balances that Americans deserve."
RNC Chair Michael Steele:
Some in the Republican Party are happy about this. I am not.
Let's be honest-Senator Specter didn't leave the GOP based on principles of any kind. He left to further his personal political interests because he knew that he was going to lose a Republican primary due to his left-wing voting record.
Republicans look forward to beating Sen. Specter in 2010, assuming the Democrats don't do it first.
A clear theme of political expediency and self-preservation. I can't disagree.
UPDATE 5: Congressman Joe Sestak was just on MSNBC. He didn't immediately jump on the bandwagon. He's taking a "wait and see" approach. Good! (If there's one Pennsylvania Democrat who will march to his own beat, it's Joe Sestak.) State Representative Josh Shapiro, however, is stepping back:
Democratic State Rep. Josh Shapiro told PoliticsPA he would not run for Senate "under the circumstances."
"Senator Specter is now the incumbent Democratic Senator," Shapiro said. He was considered a likely candidate for the US Senate.
I'll keep an eye out for comments from Joe Torsella, Bill Kortz, Allyson Schwartz, and other Democrats.
UPDATE 6: Specter's presser going on now. Amongst other things, he said that he has gotten assurances that President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Reid would campaign with Specter in Pennsylvania and Gov. Rendell would help with fundraising. If accurate - particularly about President Obama - that could keep a Joe Sestak or Allyson Schwartz from running a primary challenge. (Rendell's support would ostensibly also end Joe Torsella's candidacy, one would presume.) Regardless of any Dems' comments, though, I think everyone is taking a wait-and-see approach. For instance, Specter just reiterated his opposition to the Dawn Johnsen nomination at DOJ the Office of Legal Counsel. Terrific...
UPDATE 7: Is Maine Republican Olympia Snowe next?
UPDATE 8: Mitch McConnell speaks:
"This is not a national story. It is a Pennsylvania story," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters in a news conference following Tuesday's GOP policy luncheon.
It's like Mitch is relying on the Jedi mind trick, but he just can't pull it off.
UPDATE 9: Specter is offering refunds to unhappy shoppers:
Specter said in a statement earlier Tuesday that he planned to return donations if he was asked to do so. "Upon request, I will return campaign contributions contributed during this cycle," he said.
UPDATE 10: Democratic Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania isn't endorsing Arlen Specter just yet.
UPDATE 11: Joe Torsella is staying in the race for now - though, if Ed Rendell shifts his machine to back Specter, I don't see how Torsella can last long.
UPDATE 12: Don't forget that just one week ago, the founder of the Pennsylvania chapter of the Club for Growth said that Pat Toomey couldn't win a general election.
UPDATE 13: Republicans who think Pat Toomey is too far to the right to win statewide in Pennsylvania have already started talking up Republican former Gov. Tom Ridge as a possible 2010 Senate candidate. The GOP has no faith in Toomey! Hilarious.
UPDATE 14: Count out Allyson Schwartz:
Aides to Rep. Allyson Schwartz say the third-term Pennsylvania Democrat will not seek her party's nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2010.
Congressman Joe Sestak and state Auditor Jack Wagner may be the only Dems who could give Specter a primary challenge at this point. With President Obama's pledge to help Specter, that might be that.
UPDATE 15: Republican state Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati is being discussed as a less-extreme potential alternative to Pat Toomey in the GOP Senate primary. |
