| Once upon a time, Charlie Crist had sky-high approval ratings. Nevertheless, last year, I declared that Marco Rubio would defeat Charlie Crist in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Florida. Recent polling has borne out that Rubio has soundly taken the lead away from Crist.
As of the end of December, Crist had just over $7.5 million on hand, compared to just over $2 million on hand for Rubio. As Crist continues to sink in the polls, you can believe that he will unleash millions in attack ads against Rubio. Similarly, Rubio will blow through whatever money he can raise defending himself against the Crist attacks. What will emerge from the Republican primary when the smoke clears is a victorious, but terribly bruised Rubio who has positioned himself too far to the right.
Meanwhile, Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek has been dutifully campaigning across Florida while prodigiously raising funds to be saved for the general. As of the end of 2009, he was at just over $3.4 million on hand. Come the start of the general election, perhaps he'll be around $5 million or so on hand while Rubio is running on fumes, frantically trying to rebuild after the Crist onslaught.
Public Policy Polling released numbers (for both the GOP primary and the general) last week, and Research 2000 numbers came out this week. The PPP and R2K numbers were extremely similar:
| GOP Primary | Rubio v. Meek | Crist v. Meek |
|---|
| PPP | Rubio 60
Crist 28 | Rubio 44
Meek 39 | Crist 46
Meek 33 |
| R2K | Rubio 58
Crist 30 | Rubio 41
Meek 40 | Crist 45
Meek 36 |
According to PPP, 56% of Republican voters want Crist out of elected office altogether. Among Florida Republican voters who identify as conservative, PPP found that Rubio enjoyed a 71-17 lead over Crist - beyond overwhelming. In short, Rubio will be the Republican nominee for Senate. So how does a Meek v. Rubio affair shape up? Neck and neck.
Florida's primary day is toward the end of summer, on August 24. How will a Meek v. Rubio affair look at that point? Well, Meek will be stockpiling campaign funds while Rubio continues cementing himself in the far right while taking hit after hit from Crist. Of course, Crist's barbs won't hurt him too much among Florida's right-wingers. (Keep in mind, Research 2000 found that two-thirds of Florida Republicans either don't believe President Obama was born in the United States or aren't sure. They're nuts and they aren't swayed by factual arguments.) However, Crist's attacks will continue to hurt Rubio among independent voters, further strengthening Congressman Meek's hand.
Florida's 2010 Senate race is shaping up to be a solid pick-up opportunity for Democrats. As such, I have added Congressman Meek's campaign for Senate to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. I hope you can chip in a few bucks and help Congressman Meek even more strongly position himself for a truly competitive general election. |
