Gigantic Wednesday Night Rundown

  • If you appreciate this gigantic rundown (yeah, guilt trip), consider a contribution to some of the great Democratic Senate candidates on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.  For instance, Mark Begich is less than $50 from the $500 mark and Rick Noriega is less than $50 from the $1,500 mark.
  • In his weekly column in The Hill, Kos chronicles Republican hopelessness and lost opportunities in the 2008 Senate races.  It’s a good read.
  • Oklahoma: ActBlue’s blog offers a thorough profile of State Senator Andrew Rice.  The profile also highlights our Expand the Map! ActBlue page.
  • Idaho: The historically inaccurate quote of the day comes from Republican Senate candidate Jim Risch:

    “You know what Ronald Reagan said? Numbers are stubborn things,” Risch said.

    No, Jim, Ronald Reagan didn’t say that.  Reagan said something else – and what he said, he wasn’t trying to say.  What he was trying to say was a quote from our second President, John Adams:

    John Adams, our second president, famously said: “Facts are stubborn things.” In a 1988 slip of the tongue, Ronald Reagan said: “Facts are stupid things.”

    Apparently, to Republicans, facts truly are stupid things – or, at least, unnecessary things.  This highlights another reason to contribute to Idaho’s Democratic Senate candidate Larry LaRocco – he has a firm grasp of history.

    • Colorado: Congressman Mark Udall raised more than 40% more than Republican former Rep. Bob Schaffer in Q1, as Udall brought in almost $1.5 million and Schaffer just squeeked over the million dollar mark.  Udall also leads in cash-on-hand, $4.2 million to $2.2 million.  Further, in light of Schaffer’s love affair with Jack Abramoff and Northern Mariana Islands sweatshops, the DSCC released the YouTube video to the right and Mike Keefe offered the below cartoon in the Denver Post.

     

  • Wyoming: Well, this is interesting.  With Republican Mike Enzi still mum about 2008 re-election plans, The Hill is reporting on speculation that Enzi and Senate-appointee John Barrasso might swap seats – that Enzi, perhaps not ready to retire but not wanting to commit to another full six-year term, will run for the four-year remainder of the late Craig Thomas’ term and that Barrasso will run for the full six-year term represented by Enzi’s seat.  And you thought you’d heard everything.
  • Nebraska: Scott Kleeb has released his first ad.  Compare its energy level with the introductory video Republican quitter Mike Johanns released, which is as enthralling as watching paint dry:
  • Alaska: The Alaska Democratic Party appropriately wonders, “How much has Sen. Stevens spent on his legal defense and who is paying for it?”
  • Montana: So Senator Max Baucus is sitting on a campaign bankroll of $6.4 million.  How are his Republican rivals faring?  None of his potential Republican opponents currently have more than $8,000 in their campaign accounts; and Baucus’ most well-known potential opponent, disgraced state rep. Michael Lange, said yesterday that he only has $1,000 left in his campaign account.
  • Mississippi: Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove took in about $450,000 in Q1, about one-fifth of the $2.5 million Q1 take of Senate-appointee Roger Wicker.  Now we see clearly why Republican Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour wanted to game the state Constitution to delay the election of Trent Lott’s successor, so that the ethically-cloudy Wicker could enjoy the trappings of incumbency for as long as possible.
  • New Hampshire: Popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen outraised Sprintin’ John Sununu in Q1, about $1.2 million to about $1 million.  Sununu still holds a cash-on-hand advantage ($4.3 million to $2 million), but as long as Shaheen continues to edge Sununu in fundraising and maintain a healthy lead int he polls, she should be in fine shape.
  • New Jersey: Senator Frank Lautenberg outraised Rob Andrews in Q1 by a $615,000 to $161,000 margin, and also has more cash-on-hand, $4.7 million to $2.2 million.  No word on the fundraising of Republican candidates for Senate in New Jersey, or if such figures are even relevant.
  • Maine: Judith E. Schaeffer, Legal Director for People For the American Way, blogs at Turn Maine Blue on how supposedly pro-choice Susan Collins’ support for George W. Bush’s Supreme Court nominees has contributed to the dismantling of privacy rights and reproductive freedoms.
  • Delaware: Senator Joe Biden will actually have a Republican opponent as a GOP Senate primary is brewing between conservative businessman Tim Smith and 2006 Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell.
  • Virginia: Expect plenty of this during the election cycle: popular former Governor Mark Warner discusses his moderate vision for America and unpopular former Gov. Jim Gilmore attacks, attacks, attacks.
  • New Mexico: Maintaining a nasty Republican primary tone, Steve Pearce criticizes Heather Wilson for missing a Congressional vote on so-called “sanctuary cities.”
  • South Carolina: Lindsey Graham pulled in about half-a-million dollars in Q1, bringing his cash-on-hand to $4.77 millions; while his Republican primary opponent, Republican National Committee member Buddy Witherspoon, reports a quarter million dollars on hand at the end of Q1.
  • Pennsylvania: Republican Senator Arlen Specter, facing a recurrence of Hodgkin’s disease, said that his doctor believes that “prospects are excellent for a full recovery,” and that the illness will not affect his decision to run for re-election in 2010 at age 80.  I hope that Democrats are able to win this Senate seat in a blue-leaning purple state in 2010, but I sincerely hope that Specter’s health is not a factor in the race and that he does achieve a full and speedy recovery.
  • Minnesota & New Hampshire: Americans United for Change is launching a round of radio ads against Smilin’ Norm Coleman and Sprintin’ John Sununu for their support of George W. Bush’s economic policies (and debacles) as part of AUC’s Bush Legacy Project.
  • Bruce endorsed Obama. Awesome.

Switching seats. Interesting. I’m betting Enzi backs out

completely though.  If he’s pissed enough at the leadership, he’s not going to want to go back period.Sounds a little like the North Dakota Senators.Not exactly the same situation, but for those who don’t know, in 1992, Kent Conrad decided not to run for re-election based on a campaign promise, so Byron Dorgan filed and ran.  However, in September of 1992, the other Senator died, and Conrad ran for his seat, winning in a special election.I don’t know, but I’m guessing Conrad and Lautenburg are the only two Senators currently serving who have been elected to both seats from their state at one point or another.A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


by: wmlawman @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 20:55:01 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

If they switch but the Democrats don’t…

…that bumps Rothfuss up to a top-tier attention from my point of view.I hope that the Wyoming U.S. Senate races will be as interesting as the WY-AL house race.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page


 

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:21:12 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

Happy Birthday Tom Allen!

Today is Maine’s Senatorial candidate Tom Allen’s birthday. (As well as my own ;) ) Happy Birthday Tom! Have a $20!youngbuckbear


 

by: youngbuckbear @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 21:46:34 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Happy birthday!

To you and to Representative Allen!

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page


 

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:21:39 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

Specter

Specter won’t run. Everyone is pretty sure about that. He doesn’t want to say that yet, because it’s so far away from the election, but I don’t see him running for another term.However, if he happens to run, I think he would probably win. He’s not a conservative, and has a pretty good record when it comes to Pennsylvania. He’s more liked in the state right now then Ed Randell, who, if he ran for re-election now, probably wouldn’t win.


 

by: Anthony Distler @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:03:46 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Kleeb’s new ad is really fantastic…

love the pace, tone, and the message!Wicker’s COH advantage over Musgrove concerns me a bit.  I’m mulling over moving this race down a notch.

The Schaeffer implosion countdown continues…

 


by: blueandwhite31 @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:18:48 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Risch is just completely out of touch with everything

His “historically inaccurate comment of the day” puts a burr under my saddle . . . never mind, there’s too much for a comment here — I’ll post a diary.


 

by: grigby77 @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:22:27 PM CDT

 


Are Republicans ever in touch with anything?

 

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page


by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:21:58 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

Anyone Agree with Kos Comment:

“And believe it or not, 2010 is an even more favorable Senate map for the Democrats.”I have a hard time believing that there is another favorable map in 2010 that can put up a good 6-8 seats that the Democrats are seriously contending AND could win. I’d love to see a list of states in 2010 that match the Like Takeover, Lean-Takeover, Toss-up, and Leans Retention that we have in 2008. In addition, where we only have 1 seat that we have to seriously defend, which at this point is sitting between Likely Retntion & Leans Retention.

Not to be a buzz kill about 2010, but to say it’s more favorable than 2008 (which I think at this point is more favorable than 2006 was in April’06) seems like a reach.

KELL


 

by: ryanlkelly @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:23:53 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

 

 

Here’s something to look at

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U…1. McCain will probably retire.  He stayed in the senate so he could run for president.  When he loses again, that’ll be it.  And I expect Janet Napolitiano to run.  She is a term limited governor who has expressed interest in the US Senate.

2. Sam Brownback will retire, and if Kathleen Sebelius isn’t Vice president, that is another Governor who has expressed interest in the US Senate.

States we can be competitive in: Missouri, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota, possibly Alaska.

That is without considering possible retirements.  I don’t think it is a map more favorable than the 2008 elections, but Democrats will still be favored for a net gain.

Democrats will be defending: Nevada, Indiana, and more depending on possible retirements.


 

by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:35:54 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

I would scratch . . .

. . . Missouri and Iowa off that list.  Bond and Grassley are institutions. Unless one of them retires, they have those seats for life.Pennsylvania, as noted above, will hinge entirely upon whether Specter retires or not.

New Hampshire is probably our strongest pickup in ’10.  Judd Gregg is the most ideologically mismatched officeholder in all of New England, so his days are numbered.  On top of that, we have an amazing Democratic bench in the Granite State– whether we run Steve Marchand, Gary Hirshberg, John Lynch, or Paul Hodes (although he should hang onto his seat in the House,) I’d say we’re bound to win that seat.

As for North Carolina . . . our recruiting has to be MUCH better next time around if we want a shot at that one.

So, I don’t think 2010 will be a banner year for us the way 2008 is shaping up to be.  But it could still be a good year.


 

by: The Caped Composer @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:33:00 AM CDT


by: you @ soon

Arguably, yeah

2010 has a very promising mapfor Democrats.Sure, the overall disparity of GOP seats up vs. Dem seats up isn’t as stark, but it’s still pretty good.

Possible GOP
Retirements
Possible Dem
Retirements
Bennett (UT)
Bond (MO)
Brownback (KS)
Bunning (KY)
Grassley (IA)
McCain (AZ)
Shelby (AL)
Specter (PA)
Voinovich (OH)
Inouye (HI)
Mikulski (MD)

Other top GOP-incumbent targets include Burr, Coburn, Gregg, Martinez, and Murkowski.

Other top Dem-incumbent targets include, hmmmm, I don’t know.  Blanche Lincoln?  The AR-GOP couldn’t get a single Republican to challenge Mark Pryor.  Ahnold said he wouldn’t run, which bodes well for Boxer.

It’s another pretty good map.  At any rate, if we can get up to 56-57 seats in 2008, 60 in 2010 becomes VERY realistic.


 

by: Senate Guru @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:45:42 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

 

 

Ah- I forgot about Bunning’s expected retirement, and

Chandler’s expected candidacy.  :-D


 

by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:51:15 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Lots of races to look forward to

And lots of a great potential Dem recruits.Get:
- one of the Carnahan kids in Missouri
- Sebelius in Kansas
- Chandler in Kentucky
- Vilsack-Culver-Braley in Iowa
- Napolitano in Arizona
- soon-to-be-Congressman Berkowitz in Alaska
- lots of options in PA, NH and OH.

A lot of potential top tier races, especially if the GOP retirements stack up.


 

by: Senate Guru @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 23:03:30 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Berkowitz wouldn’t throw away the US House seat

I think our bench will be pretty slim in Alaska.  I don’t think we will mount as strong of a challenge as we are this cycle.But other than that, I pretty much agree.


 

by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 23:59:46 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

 

 

Ooh, I worry . . .

. . . about those retirements on our side.  While Hawaii and Maryland are both reliably blue, they each have popular Republicans in the wings (Linda Lingle, Michael Steele) who could give us trouble.Also, now that I think about it, California could be a problem if the Governator decides to run against Barbara Boxer . . .


 

by: The Caped Composer @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:35:07 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

Steele? I doubt it. He’s lost once before, and there’s

no sign that MD is getting more friendly to Republicans.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


 

by: wmlawman @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:02:43 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

True, but . . .

. . . he lost in a strong Democratic year.  If 2010 is not as strong a year for us as 2006 or this year, Steele could slither his way to victory.  He has a very effective marketing strategy.  I must say, I give the people of Maryland major points for being smart enough not to fall for it!  I’m hoping they’ll impress me again if Steele runs in 2010.


by: The Caped Composer @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:05:54 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

He did have some great ads.

But they were all fluff and the DSCC was about to hit him hard.I don’t know.  I’m generally skeptical that he can manage a win.  What’s he even up to these days?

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


by: wmlawman @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:22:56 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

 

It’s a more favorable map, but it

remains to be seen if it is a more (or as favorable) favorable environment.Remember, it’ll be the first midterm election of the new (hopefully, Democratic) president’s term.  It could have a lot to do with the policies the new president has chosen to push, his popularity, etc.  And traditionally, the party in the W.H. loses seats that election.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


by: wmlawman @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 23:11:23 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Traditionally.

But not always.  Look at 2002.


by: The Caped Composer @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:06:33 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

I think 2002 was an anomaly due to 9/11.

Additionally, the Southern Senators retiring killed us.But who knows… maybe President Obama will be so beloved that he can bring in even more Democrats in the Senate and House.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


by: wmlawman @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:21:46 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

Im Optimistic for 2010

Offense
Kansas- if Sebelius isnt VP and gets in the race
Iowa- if Grassley retires, we have many on the bench
Arizona- regardless if McCain retires, Napolitiano could win
New Hampshire- Gregg could be vulnerable in New Hampshire
Louisiana- advertise Vitter’s scandal as much as possible, but it’d still be quite up-hill
South Dakota- if we got Herseth-Sandlin to run, what a showdown!
Alaska- doubtful we would find a candidate but if we found a good one, then this could be competitive (2008 will tell)
Florida- regardless of who, we should still shoot for this race, Florida is reddening too much for my liking
Kentucky- open most likely, go Chandler!
North Carolina- maybe we’ll get a tier 1 challenger this time
Ohio- Voinivich could retire, and if not, we have many people on our bench
Pennsylvania- if he retires, this seat is ours
Missouri- we could get a tier 1 challenger

Defense
California- only if Schwarzeneger gets in the race, if he does, I expect the entire netroots to work our asses off for Boxer, she is certainly one of our favorite Senators
Nevada- possibly, I kind of doubt it
Colorado- 1st term incumbent, although they didnt do that great getting their best challenger for the open seat, against an incumbent, I’m doubtful they will manage to get one at all
Washington- really really really really doubtful but after three elections, Murray still hasnt gotten to 60%
Wisconsin- same as Washington

So even with our seats, I dont really see any vulnerable ones unless Schwarzeneger gets into the race, and that is it.  The Republicans, however, I can see us probably being seriously competitive with 5-6 of them.  Actually, I can kind of see it like 2008.  We have our 3-5 excellent pick-ups from great challengers and open seats, and then another bracket of races that are looking good but lean Republican, and then a couple of races we dont have much of a chance in but very well could get competitive and win.

Here are the retirements we should hope for, Arizona , Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire (Marchland’s new seat, Im saying it now), Kansas (already done), Kentucky, Ohio.  We can be seriously competitive in every single one of those, and we have the momentum to win in Iowa, Penn., New Hampshire, and Ohio and have excellent recruits for the other three.  And then the rest, we’ll just have to see how great of recruits we can find.

It says Thune may retire (on wiki) to run for governor, and oddly enough, I’ve read Herseth-Sandlin is also eying the gubernatorial race.  that’d be interesting if both retired to run for governor, although, I bet they would both settle on either Senate or Gov., no point in losing when you can win something else.

It’s interesting how Republican wins in 2002 and 2004 have set us up for even bigger wins than what they got. They picked up every seat they could from us and it almost seems like their 55-45 majority is the greatest majority they can hope to obtain.  When you look at 2008 and 2010, they have absolutely 0 targets, they simply picked them all off already in 02 and 04.  While that isnt scientific or really accuarate, but even in the most Republican of times, they can only manage a maximum of around 55-57 seats.

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