Early Thursday Morning Rundown

  • Consider a contribution to red state Democrats Jim Martin of Georgia, Jim Slattery of Kansas, and Ronnie Musgrove of Mississippi on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.  These are exactly the type of races where we can truly expand the map!
  • DSCC Chair Senator Chuck Schumer, who is not one for irrational exuberance, is for the first time publicly acknowledging the possibility of Democrats getting to the 60-seat Senate majority in 2008.  That’s quite a signal.
  • The Senate GOP declares, “Let Big Oil drill anywhere it wants or we will block every piece of legislation out there.”
  • Minnesota: New Rasmussen Reports poll: Good news for Al Franken as the latest RR poll sees a statistical dead heat, Republican Norm Coleman 44, Al Franken 43.  When leaners are included, it’s Franken 49, Coleman 46, suggesting that a majority of undecideds lean Franken.  Meanwhile, though Minnesotans are pre-occupied by issues like the economy, Iraq, and gas prices, Norm Coleman is obsessed with “juicy porn.” Good to see Coleman’s priorities are in the right order.  Oh, quick question.  Is Norm Coleman laying the groundwork to duck upcoming debates?  In other news, the Minnesota Senate candidates are taking questions on YouTube (see right).  Anyone want to ask Smilin’ Norm Coleman questions about ApartmentGate or his allegiance to George W. Bush or his gorgeous smile?
  • New Hampshire: New UNH Granite State poll: New numbers suggest a tigher race between popular Democratic former Governor Jeanne Shaheen and Republican John Sununu as Shaheen only leads by four points in this poll 46-42.  While I don’t think that NH-Sen is the 22-point race that American Research Group suggested the other day, I would imagine that UNH offers a much tighter view than accurate.  That may in fact be the case as the UNH poll is plagued by major sampling problems.  brownsox reminds us that UNH had Paul Hodes losing NH-02 by 20 points leading up to the 2006 election, a race Hodes won by 8 points.  Reflecting Shaheen’s reliable polling lead, CQ Politics has shifted NH-Sen from “No Clear Favorite” to “Leans Democrat” (it’s about time).
  • Virginia: New Public Policy Polling poll: Popular Democratic former Governor Mark Warner continues to trounce unpopular Republican former Gov. Jim Gilmore 57-32.  Meanwhile, The Politico, not exactly a liberal cheering section, has some colorful words about Gilmore’s candidacy:

    Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore has barely begun his campaign for the Senate, but it’s almost impossible to find anyone in statewide Republican circles – outside of his closest allies – who thinks he can actually win. …Gilmore has become the laughingstock of this year’s crop of  GOP Senate recruits.

    Ouch.  Laughingstock?  Ouch.

  • Louisiana: Kennedy for Whatever releases its first YouTube video, highlighting the many flip-flops of John Neely Kennedy, at right.
  • Texas: Republican John Cornyn is for the Bush-Cheney tax giveaways to Big Oil.  Fortunately, State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega is for a comprehensive energy policy that invests in renewable energy, patrols price gouging, increases CAFE standards, and more (in PDF).
  • Oregon: Open Left’s Stoller gushes over the Better Democrat-ness of Speaker Jeff Merkley.  And Stoller’s right.
  • New Mexico: It would appear that a Big Oil front group is running attack ads against Democratic Congressman Tom Udall.  This simply provides us with another opportunity to remind people that far-right-wing Republican Steve Pearce is Big Oil’s best buddy.
  • Idaho: Today, former Congressman Larry LaRocco will work his 31st job in his successful grassroots outreach effort “Working for the Senate.”  He’ll be working at the Idaho Food Bank in Pocatello.
  • Oklahoma: Oklahoma State University’s student newspaper, The Daily O’Collegian, ran an editorial declaring the desire to oust Jim Inhofe.  It seems that Oklahoma’s student population is squarely behind Andrew Rice.
  • Mississippi: Barack Obama’s coattails could have a major impact on former Governor Ronnie Musgrove becoming Mississippi’s next U.S. Senator.
  • Kansas: Is Republican Pat Roberts declaring his support for Democrat Barack Obama for President?  He must be.  You see, his latest 2008 Senate race misleading attack ad is very relevant to the Presidential race:

    Roberts’ new ad is his fifth of the campaign – the Senator has been on television for more than a month. This spot, titled “Attendance,” is running on broadcast and cable television in the Topeka and Wichita media markets. …”Sen. Pat Roberts never stops working for Kansas,” the new, 30-second ad’s voice-over begins. “And his opponent Jim Slattery? In his last year in Congress, he skipped almost half the votes in Congress … Pat Roberts never stops working for Congress. Jim Slattery doesn’t even show up.”

    What Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts doesn’t say in his misleading attack ad against former Congressman Jim Slattery is that, in Slattery’s final year in Congress, he was in out of Washington D.C. and in Kansas much of the time running for Governor (which is precisely why the ad focuses only on Slattery’s final year in Congress instead of the entirety of his twelve-year Congressional tenure – to mislead voters).  This is, of course, relevant to the 2008 Presidential race because the presumptive Republican nominee, John W. McCain, has missed an overwhelming 63% of his votes during the current Congress, the biggest voter skipper by a huge margin.  So, I wonder when we can expect Roberts’ formal endorsement of Obama for President.  Meanwhile, Slattery has released his third campaign ad – unlike Roberts, Slattery’s ad doesn’t mislead voters – highlighting the hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions that Roberts has taken from Big Oil while voting for huge tax breaks for Big Oil:

  • Illinois: When seeking self-funding martyrs to serve as Republican Senate challengers, does the GOP also seek out those with delusions of grandeur?

    It would be generous to call GOP nominee Steve Sauerberg a long shot against Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D) in Illinois. But you wouldn’t know it by the rhetoric coming from the Republican’s campaign.”New Polling Shows Sauerberg within Striking Distance of Durbin,” blared a July 15 release. The campaign points to a July 12 poll by Southern Outreach showing Durbin ahead of Sauerberg 52 percent to 35 percent.

    And I thought Al Franken was the only comedian running for Senate.

  • Illinois & Arizona: NPR looks at who might succeed Barack Obama and John W. McCain, once one ascends to the White House.  Since Governor Janet Napolitano would be required by law to pick a Republican (a member of the Party of the current Senator), and since she may be taking a long look at a 2010 Senate race herself, I haven’t the first idea who she might pick in the unlikely event that John W. McCain wins the Presidency.  However, the more I consider the situation and read about the topic, the more willing I am to put my money on Jesse Jackson Jr. succeeding Barack Obama.

by: you @ soon

We need to pick up 10 Seats to get 60 Seats.

Solid Democratic Pickup
1)VA
2)NM
Likely Democratic Pickup
3)NH
4)CO
Leaning Democatic pickup
5)AK
Tossup
6)MS-B
7)OR
Leans Republican
8)MN
9)ME
10)NC.


by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 03:51:09 AM CDT


by: you @ soon

The comments in that student paper article make me weep for the future.

Agreeing about what Inhofe says about global warming? Now we know why we haven’t been able to get rid of him.


 

by: othertim @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 09:48:34 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

New Q polls

Not so good.CO:  Udall 44, Schaffer 44.  They had Udall by 10 a month ago.  Combined with the Ras result (Udall +4, 7/21), this one may be “lean pickup” instead of “likely” at this point.

MN:  Franken 38, Coleman 53.  Ouch.  Coleman led by 10 a month ago.  This is still an uphill fight.


 

by: lilnev @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 10:25:02 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

2008 US Senate Results- using Pollster

Safe Seats for Democrats and Republicans
Democratic
1)Arkansas(Pryor-D)
2)Delaware(Biden-D)
3)Illinios(Durbin-D)
4)Iowa (Harkin-D)
5)Massachusetts (Kerry-D)
6)Michigan (Levin-D)
7)Montana (Baucus-D)
8)New Jersey(Lautenberg)
9)Rhode Island(Reed-D)
10)South Dakota (Johnson-D)
11)West Virginia (Rockefeller-D)
Republican
1)Alabama(Sessions-R)
2)Georgia(Chambliss-R)
3)Idaho(Risch-R) Sen Elect
4)Kansas(Roberts-R)
5)Mississippi-A(Cochran-R)
6)Nebraska(Johanns-R)(Sen-ELECT)
7)Oklahoma(Inhofe-R)
8)South Carolina(Graham-R)
9)Tennessee(Alexander-R)
10)Wyoming-A(Enzi-R)
11)Wyoming-B(Barrasso-R)The 13 competitive US Senate Races are in
Democratic Seats
1)Louisiana(Landrieu-D) 55-45 (DEM HOLD)

Republican Seats
1)Alaska(Begich-D)-Sen Elect)- 55-45 (DEM GAIN)
2)Colorado(Udall-D)-Sen Elect 57-43 (DEM GAIN)
3)Kentucky(McConnell-R) 54-46(GOP HOLD)
4)Maine (Collins-R) 52-48 (GOP HOLD)
5)Minnesota(Coleman-R) 51-49 GOP HOLD
6)Mississippi-B(Musgrove-D)Sen Elect 51-49 (DEM GAIN)
7)New Hampshire-(Shaheen-D)Sen Elect 59-41(DEM GAIN)
8)New Mexico-(Udall-D) Sen Elect 61-39(DEM GAIN)
9)North Carolina(Dole-R)53-47 (GOP HOLD)
10)Oregon (Merkley-D) Sen Elect 53-47 (DEM GAIN)
11)Texas (Cornyn-R) 55-45(GOP HOLD)
12)Virginia(Warner-D) Sen Elect 63-37 (DEM GAIN)

 


 

by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 13:15:15 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

I hope it is Jackson Jr.

He’s a solid liberal and to be honest, there needs to always be at least one African-American in the Senate.  We are beyond a point in our nation’s growth and history for there not to be at least one, if not several.  It’s too bad the African-American population is so diluted over so many states, especially in the Deep South where the Democratic African-American vote is immediatly cancelled out by the Republican white vote.


 

by: AndrewMN @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 15:06:48 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Has anyone watch the Hardball segment between

Robert Wexler(FL) and Heather Wilson(NM). I have to say. I am glad that B!t@h’s political career is over.
Wexler makes an interesting point that Europeans waving American flags due to Obama’s visit should be a good thing. and Wilson’s reaction is that phony grin.


 

by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 16:34:48 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

I did

…could not believe how rude Wilson was.  It left me, and not to mention Rep. Wexler and Chris visably annoyed.  I mean constantly interrupting Wexler after she just finished speaking and that obnoxious grin/giggle.  She was even referring to Rep. Wexler as Robert.


 

by: Sean @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 20:47:16 PM CDT


by: you @ soon

What is with those female Republican house members.

Not sounding to be a sexist. but I puke when i see or hear.
Musgrave-CO,Bachmann-MN,Wilson-NM or Schmidt-OH.
Wilson- is the same person who was complaining over Nipplegate and is responsible for the firing over the US Attorneys.


 

by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 21:12:54 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

you mean Republican men aren’t also loathesome?

see Sali, Bill; DeLay, Tom; Inhofe, Jim; Hastert, Dennis; Doolittle, John; Schock, Aaron; Tancredo, Tom…And I’m not even including Larry Craig here.  That’s like another dimension of…well, just plain weirdness.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page


 

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 07:09:41 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

The Female Republican that I have listed are

Republicans who wrap themselves around the flag. Behave like high school cheerleaders for US officials torturing Prisoners in Abu Gahrib or Guantonano Bay. Introduce some controversial resolution such as Outlawing Gay Marriage or Stem-Cell Research,or Pornography, Making School Prayer Mandatory. Displaying the 10 Commandments in the Capital Done. Make statements condemming Labor Unions, Environmentalist and Non Christians. Support Oil Drilling in Every State because GOD told them it is a right thing to do.


by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 08:54:35 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

I caught Michelle Bachmann last night on C-Span

(tag-teaming with Bob Latta from Ohio) extolling the merits (read: spewing bullshit) of drilling in the ANWR and claiming that if we had started drilling there ten years ago, we wouldn’t have to be importing any oil now, and also that “the technology now is such that not one drop of oil would be spilled”.  What planet are these people from?  In the first place, if we had started drilling there ten years ago, most of the oil obtained would have been exported to the Far East, as the US doesn’t have the refining capability to handle all that heavy sour stuff; and secondly, if they seriously believe that large-scale drilling in the ANWR could have been managed without affecting the environment there, they are on drugs.

jimfrommichigan


by: jimmich @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 08:52:38 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

Are the Goldwater- Reagan style republicans

who were Libetarian of Social issues but Hawkish on National Security issues extinct.
The Modern Republican party think that polluting the environment and screwing the unfortunate is good for Big Businesses. The Big Businessmens are the backbone of the US Economy. They forget to mention- In order for these big businesses to do well- They need to increase their Customer or Client bases. Consumers is what helps big businesses not giving the CEO of a business a huge tax cut so he can buy a Mercedez Benz.
The Modern Republican Party obsess over annihilating Gays,Illegal Immigrants,Muslims,Hollywood Producers and Actors,Environmentalist,Labor Unions. Believes that Parents should send their children to Jesus Bootcamp.


by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 09:16:10 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

Yes!

I checked it out online after you mentioned it and that condescending tone was pretty much infuriating.As a general note, it seems like Republicans have gone back to the 2004 playbook of late.  Out of desperation perhaps, but I sincerely hope people don’t fall for this type of misleading/politics of fear crap again.

I was actually so upset after listening to Wilson that I had to search out and watch this great speech from Michelle Obama: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Find me blogging at Political Realm


by: PoliticalRealm @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 23:17:44 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

2008 US Senate Prediction. Competitive Races.

Alaska (DEM GAIN)
D)Begich 52%
R)Stevens 43%.
Colorado (DEM GAIN)
D)Udall 58%
R)Schaffer 41%
Kentucky
R)McConnell 51%
D)Lunsford 48%
Louisiana
D)Landrieu 54%
R)Kennedy 44%
Maine
R)Collins 52%
D)Allen 47%.
Minnesota
R)Coleman 49%
D)Franken 46%
Mississippi-B(DEM GAIN)
D)Musgrove 51%
R)Wicker 49%
New Hampshire(DEM GAIN)
D)Shaheen 56%
R)Sununu 44%
New Mexico (DEM GAIN)
D)Udall 62%
R)Pearce 38%
North Carolina
R)Dole 52%
D)Hagan 48%
Oregon (DEM GAIN)
D)Merkley 53%
R)Smith  47%
Texas
R)Cornyn 53%
D)Noriega 46%
Virginia (DEM GAIN).
D)Warner 64%
R)Gilmore 34%Democrats will pick up
1)VA
2)NM
3)CO
4)NH
5)AK
6)OR
7)MS


by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 19:10:40 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

 

why so pesimistic?

about Allen and Franken, both have moved up in the polls after lagging badly. Collins is only a seven point favorite after leading by over twenty. Franken now leads by three in RR, which seems to give a few points to the GOP over what actully happens.


by: NVdem @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 19:51:19 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

I using the average poll results from Pollster.com to make my prediction.

Collins(ME) and Coleman(MN) average poll numbers are slightly above 50%.
If we look at the recent Rasmussen and Survey USA Poll taken in July 2008.
Rasmussen has Franken(D) leading by 49-46 percent margin.
Survey USA has Coleman(R) leading by 52-39 percent margin.
-Rasmussen polls Likely voters
Survey USA polls Registerd voters.
The 2008 Minnesota US Senate Race is unpredictable.
A recent Rasmussen has Collin(ME) leading Allen by a 10% margin 53-43. Undecided are probally going to break in Allen’s direction so Collin’s margin of victory will be narrow.


by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 20:36:40 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

The thing about MN and ME senate Races is

In MN- Coleman is a Bush-NEOCONNED Republican but Franken has too much baggage.
IN ME- Collins is perceived as a Moderate but Allen is the strongest candidate Democrats can field in this race.
OR is going to be and easy victory for us because- Smith is not perceived as a Moderate like Collins and Merkley is not as controversial as Franken.
IN NH- Sununu is running against a former Governor who is fairly popular and NH is a Democratic leaning state. Sununu is not an extremist like Santorum so he has a chance of appealing to the undecided voters.
I expect landslide margins for democrats in VA,NM,and CO. Open seats and
The Republican Nominees in VA,NM,and CO are too conservative – incompetent and corrupted. The Democratic nominees are extremely popular with the general electorate and the grassroots community.
That leaves us AK,MS,and NC. Stevens(AK)is goner because of corruption. MS- is too close to call. Dole(NC) can surprisingly lose due to her support for Jesse Helms.
KY is a wildcard because of Lunsford’s personal wealth.


by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 21:01:36 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Avoid repetition when possible

nkpolitics – I don’t want to suggest that you cut down on commenting, but in this one string alone, you have three comments consisting of very long lists that seem largely repetitive or easily combine-able.  Can you try to combine ideas into singular comments when possible?  Thanks.

Click here for the new senate guru blog…

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