Ladies and gents, we will have an open seat in Missouri:
"In 1972, I became Missouri's youngest Governor," Bond said this morning in an address to the Missouri General Assembly. "Ladies and Gentlemen, I do no aspire to become Missouri's oldest Senator."
Christopher "Kit" Bond, #6 on my Retirement/Resignation Watch, will not run for re-election in 2010. As such, Democrats have another strong pick-up opportunity.
Missouri is just about as purple as a state gets. The nine-person U.S. House delegation includes five Republicans and four Democrats, to go with one Senator from both Parties. This year, John McCain barely squeaked out Missouri's electoral votes, 50-49, over Barack Obama; while Democrat Jay Nixon resoundingly took back the Governor's office for Democrats, 58-40 over Republican Kenny Hulshof. 2006 saw Missouri's last Senate race, in which Democrat Claire McCaskill narrowly defeated Republican Jim Talent, 50-47.
So who can the Republicans field in place of Bond? WaPo's Cillizza points to Senatorial loser Talent (age 52), gubernatorial loser Hulshof (age 50), and Congresscritter Roy Blunt (age 58). Devilstower notes that U.S. Attorney Catherine Hanaway (age 45), former speaker of the Missouri House, was present for Bond's announcement. With the Obama Administration coming in, Hanaway will be looking for a new job and could indeed be considering a run. The Kansas City Star's Prime Buzz political blog adds the names Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (age 54) and Rep. Sam Graves (age 45). Crisitunity further adds gubernatorial primary loser and outgoing state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (age 50). Just to round it out, the other Republican members of Missouri's Congressional delegation are Todd Akin (age 61), Jo Ann Emerson (age 58), and Blaine Luetkemeyer (age 56). (It is worth noting, almost comically, that Jim Talent's old Senate campaign website is still active.)
On the Democratic side, the dynamics haven't change too much. I would imagine that an announcement from Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan would clear the Democratic field. She just won re-election (earning more votes than any Missourian in a single election ever), so she wouldn't have to give up a seat to run the way a Democratic member of the Congressional delegation would. As a statewide officer already, she's known in all corners of Missouri, further helped by her being the scion of Missouri's most well known Democratic family. (And before anybody suggests a national "legacy fatigue" with talk of the Kennedys in New York and the Bidens in Delaware, clearly Missourians had no problem re-electing Carnahan to her current job.) Heck, in a hypothetical match-up, she already gauged a statistical dead heat against Bond, so she would ostensibly start off in good shape against just about any Republican. The poll also found Carnahan with a strong 48-26 approve-disapprove, with 26 still with no opinion, a healthy pool from which to further grow her approval.
If Secretary of State Carnahan were to pass, there is still a solid (if relatively young) bench of Democrats who could run. Other Democratic statewide Constitutional officers include Governor Nixon (age 52), state Treasurer Clint Zweifel (age 35), and state Attorney General (and former Republican) Chris Koster (age 44). All three just won election to their first term for their respective offices this past November. The Democratic members of Missouri's Congressional delegation include William Lacy Clay (age 52), Robin's brother Russ Carnahan (age 50), Ike Skelton (age 77), and Emanuel Cleaver (age 64).
With Bond out, this race should immediately be considered a toss-up. If Robin Carnahan gets in, this race could lean Democrat from the moment of her announcement. (It further helps the eventual Democratic nominee that two conservative third Parties, the Missouri Libertarian Party and the Missouri Constitution Party, both intend on running candidates for Senate.)
Those doing speculative polling might want to match up Carnahan against Hulshof and Talent, if only to get further baseline sensibilities. Given her position, Hanaway's potential candidacy strikes me as the most intriguing, though any polling in the near future with her would likely be premature, since the average voter probably has no idea who their U.S. Attorney is. (Though, it's further worth noting that Hanaway ran in 2004 for Missouri Secretary of State and lost to, yup, Robin Carnahan, by a 51 to 46 margin.)
At any rate, we can all agree that Bond's retirement serves as another headache for new NRSC Chair John Cornyn, and that's always good news. Expect some entertaining jockeying and speculation in the coming weeks and months. |
