End of Quarter Fundraising Push - Updated!

OK , I just gave my end of Q2 contributions

   I also joined the site for the first time though I have been lurking for months. I'm a Westerner and a progressive so my contributions reflect that. Although I am a native Californian my mother is from New England (MA and NH) and I have always taken an interest in the politics of that part of the country, especially Maine.
   My $100.00 breaks down like this: $20 each to Tom Allen (ME), Jeff Merkley (OR), and Rick Noriega (TX). (One of my best friends lives near Ft Worth). $15 goes to Andrew Rice, because he's OK, and $10 each to Larry LaRocco (ID) and Mark Begich (AK). The last five bucks are a tip for Act Blue.
   I didn't give to Hagan because I tend to avoid the Southeast, or to Kleeb because I am already supporting enough underdogs. I am also not giving to Al Franken, despite receiving at least a dozen mailers because he has plenty of supporters and my funds aren't unlimited. I gave some money to Tom Udall when he announced, but figure he is in good shape now.
   Everyone should have their own strategy or list and know their budget, but y'all should give something to somebody running for Senate between now and Monday. And, yeah, Merkley and Allen could really use your help.

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by: Zack from the SFV @ Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 18:11:32 PM CDT

The states NRSC is going to take money out of and concede are in

Louisiana-(Landrieu-D)
New Jersey-(Lautenberg-D)
Virginia-OPEN seat(Warner-R) Mark Warner-D is a shoe in to defeat Jim Gilmore-R
New Mexico-OPEN Seat(Domenici-R) Tom Udall-D is a shoe in to defeat Steve Pearce-R
Colorado-OPEn seat(Allard-R)- Mark Udall-D is favored to defeat.

The will invest money in protecting vulnerable incumbents.
1)New Hampshire(Sununu-R)
2)Alaska(Stevens-R)
3)Mississippi-B(Wicker-R)
4)Minnesota-(Coleman-R)
5)Oregon-(Smith-R)
6)Maine-(Collins-R)
7)North Carolina-(Dole-R)

On the Democratic side- All of the Democratic incumbents except for Landrieu(LA) are safe. Democrats are strongly favored to win open Republican seats in VA(Warner-D),NM(Udall-D),and CO(Udall-D). and defeat Republican incumbent John Sununu in NH(Shaheen-D)- Obama is favored to win the popular vote in VA,NM,CO,and NH. The Democratic Senate Candidates in VA(Warner-D) and NM(Udall-D) and CO(Udall-D)will more votes than Obama in their home states. The Democratic Senate Candidate NH(Shaheen-D) will get same amount of votes as Obama in their home states.

The Defense state for Democrats are in LA(Landrieu),Colorado(Udall),New Hampshire(Shaheen)

The Battleground States are in
Alaska
Maine
Minnesota
Minnesota-B
North Carolina
Oregon

The Offense States for Democrats are in
Idaho- LoRocco
Kansas- Slattery
Kentucky- Lunsford
Nebraska- Kleeb
Oklahoma- Rice
Texas- Noriega

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by: nkpolitics @ Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 19:45:36 PM CDT

are you sure?

From what I am reading,  Landrieu is now assumed safe....

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by: IndyDem @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 12:24:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've decided I'm going to toss some in for Merkley by the end of the quarter

Already did before the primary, but some more won't hurt.  I was on the fence between Musgrove, Hagen, and Merkley.  

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by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 20:45:07 PM CDT

Just out of curiosity...

...why isn't former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove on this list?  

Unlike most of these "great Democratic candidates" we're raising money for, multiple polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/ms/mississippi_senate_special-911.html) have shown Musgrove leading the Republican incumbent (newbie Roger Wicker, filling in for Trent Lott, who left to become a lobbyist.)  Musgrove is a former governor who brings a lot of name recognition to the table, probably more than Wicker has.  At face value, this appears to be one of the closest Senate races of the year, and one of the best pickup opportunities for the Dems.

A Musgrove victory would be the latest development in the "blue-ing" of what once was one of the reddest states in the country.  With the special election win of populist Democrat Travis Childers a few weeks ago, Dems now control 3 of Mississippi's 4 House seats.  It seems that post-Katrina Mississippi voters are placing economic issues (which Democrats usually win at) over divisive social and racial issues (which we almost always lose at).

The RCP poll of polls gives Wicker a one point lead over Musgrove.  Lets all give to Musgrove and take back Trent Lott's seat!

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by: alfrommaine @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 10:57:23 AM CDT

The issue is which candidate has momentum and which side is the undecideds will go to.

Every Democratic Seat except for LA(Landrieu-D) is safe in the Democratic collumn.
Looking at the Republican Seats.
VA and NM. The Democratic candidates Mark Warner(VA) and Tom Udall (NM) are polling above 55% and are leading their Republican opponents by a 20% margin. The Republican candidates in VA(Gilmore) and NM(Pearce) are too controversial and wacky to appeal to the undecideds. The outcome of the 2008 VA and NM US Senate will be a 20 point margin victory for Warner(VA) and Udall(NM). Same goes for CO and NH. The Democratic candidates Udall(CO) and Shaheen(NH) are leading their Republican opponents Bob Schaffer(CO)and John Sununu(NH)by a 10% margin and polling slightly below the 50% mark. Schaffer(CO) is not going to appeal to undecideds but Republicans will invest enough resources in NH trying to protect Sununu(NH) but will come up short.
The races in AK and MS-B are going down the wire as public opinion polls are suggesting. Neither side in AK and MS-B has the momentum and advantage in appealing to the undecideds. Democrats Begich(AK) and Musgrove(MS-B) have a chance in winning because Obama is not going to lose that badly in AK and MS.
US Senate Races like
KS,KY,ME,MN,NC,and OR. The Republican incumbent is polling below 50% and leading Democrats by a single digit margin. Senate Candidates like LoRocco(ID),Slattery(KS),Lunsford(KY),Allen(ME),Franken(MN),Hagan(NC),Rice(OK),Merkley(OR),and Noriega(TX) and Kleeb(NE) have momentum. Half of these candidates may end up winning. Allen(ME),Frank

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by: nkpolitics @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 12:12:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't think your naming momentum works

since we do have Begich on the SenateGuru list but not Musgrove.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 13:35:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

In the matchup between Musgrove vs Wicker.

Musgrove has high name recognition being a recent former Governor. Wicker was appointed to the US Senate and is a former US Congressman that represents 1/4 of the state of Mississippi. Musgrove has high negatives according to the recent Rassmussen Polls. In order for Musgrove to win. He will need a high turnout among Black voters and rely on Obama's strength. Obama needs to lose Mississippi by a single digit.

Senate Candidates like Begich(AK) who is also in a tossup race is favored to appeal to undecideds due to the fact Republican incumbent Ted Stevens has high negatives.

Senate Candidates like
LoRocco(ID)
Slattery(KS)
Lunsford(KY)
Allen(ME)
Franken(MN)
Kleeb(NE)
Hagan(NC)
Rice(OK)
Merkley(OR)
Noriega(TX)

are the underdogs because of low name recognitions but the Republican incumbents are polling below 50%. These candidates have an excellent chance of winning based on Obama's coattails or weaknesses of the Republican candidates such as a Maccacca moment.
LoRocco can suprisingly win due to a strong conservative third party presence.
Slattery can win due to the Republican split in KS.
Lunsford can self fund the race to Daschlized McConnell(KY)
Allen(ME),Franken(MN),Hagan(NC),and Merkley(OR) can rely on Obama's coattails.
Rice(OK) and Noriega(TX) can rely on a controversial statements by Inhofe(OK) or Cornyn(TX).

Senate Races in CO,NM,and VA is like the 2006 PA US Senate Race. Republican Senate Nominee Schaffer(CO),Pearce(NM)and Gilmore(VA) are in a similar situation as former PA US Senator Rick Santorum. They are a bunch of unpopular wingnuts in Battleground States that lean Democratic and all three of these candidates are face Strong opposition from Udall(CO),Udall(NM),and Warner(VA).

Sununu(NH) is in the similar situation as former OH US Senator Mike DeWine of OH. He is going to lose his seat by a double digit margin due to strong opposition and unpopularity of the Republican Party in NH.

Senate Races in ME,MN,and OR is like the 2006 RI US Senate Race. These are blue states. Democratic Senate Candidates like Allen(ME),Franken(MN),and Merkley(OR) are likely to benifit from Obama's coattails and the anti republican environment.

Senate Race in NC is similar to the 2006 MO US Senate Race. Hagan-NC is like Claire McCaskill-MO. Like McCaskill-MO. Hagan-NC is running a disciplined campaign and is nationalizing the election.

Senate Race in AK is similar to the 2006 MT US Senate Race. Stevens(AK)is like former MT US Senator Conrad Burns
Both are senile and tied with scandals. Both Democrats- Begich(AK) and Tester(MT-2006) are popular with netroots.

Senate Race in OK and TX are races we can win due to a controversial statements by Inhofe(OK) and Cornyn(TX).

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by: nkpolitics @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 14:43:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

with all due respect...

...I don't think that Rice or Noreiga can "rely" on their opponents making a controversial statement.  It might be fair to say that Rice and Noreiga are one "Macaca" statement away from tightening the race.

Still, you didn't explain why I should give to someone gambling on a error by an opponent, instead of Musgrove who can clearly win by himself.

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by: alfrommaine @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 19:34:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I wonder if the Senate Guru is reading this

and would like to offer his own reasoning.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 22:29:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Reasoning for which part? n/t

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by: Senate Guru @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 23:04:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think the general question about Musgrove

as in why he's not on this site's fundraising list.  I think alfrommaine is wondering this too.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 00:34:34 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Avoiding overload

I just try to space out additions and take advantage of developments in the races as they occur.

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by: Senate Guru @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 12:41:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've suggested it before

and gotten no real answer.  Only some commenter (who was more liberal than myself) complaining that Musgrove wouldn't be sufficiently progressive.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 13:36:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No, wait

That's not accurate.

I believe that commenter complained that Musgrove wasn't running a grassroots campaign, unlike other candidates.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 13:36:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It may be...

...that Musgrove is running an insufficiently grassroots campaign, but if someone thinks that, they should say so, instead of just leaving Musgrove off fundraising lists for no stated reason.

Personally, I can understand why a former governor who already has name recognition would run a less grassroots campaign than a relatively unknown candidate with little money.

Musgrove has an interesting article from The Hill on his website (http://www.musgroveforsenate.net/news/magnolia_growing_blue.html) which disucusses the Democratic surge in Mississippi and gives a fairly compelling scenario for how Obama could be the first Democrat since 1976 to win the Magnolia State.  The article also notes that in 2004, Kerry won a pathetic 14% of the Mississippi white vote.  Given that white Mississippians are getting screwed over by Republican economic, bugetary, and foreign policies just as badly as the rest of us, it seems that we as a party ought to be doing more to gain their support.  It seems Musgrove has the ability to do this.

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by: alfrommaine @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 19:58:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well

I think there's your answer right up there, above your comment.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 15:23:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Musgrove

No, I was the commenter, and I complained that Musgrove was way too conservative. However, if helps remove a Republican from office, go for it. I personally won't contribute to his campaign, but I won't fault anyone who does.

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by: Anthony Distler @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 10:50:29 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Heh

I personally haven't given a cent to any candidate yet.  I'm a poor college student with an unhealthy obsession with the Senate and House races, one that I feed by reading Senate Guru and Swing State Project.

Maybe at some point I'll contribute some money to LaRocco, Rice, Musgrove, Kleeb, Hagan, and maybe Merkley and Allen.  And maybe a small amount to Rothfuss, as a tribute to his being really inspiring.  Or something like that.  But it won't be much; as I said, I'm poor; maybe I'll give like $10 or so to each.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 15:26:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I really want to give to LaRocco

But I need to see me some polls first! Why aren't they polling this state?

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by: Bobby @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 15:17:34 PM CDT

I don't donate to conservatives.

    Merkley, Allen, And Rice (maybe Franken) will be getting some money tomorrow from me.  Keep Musgrove off the list, guru.  I think his chances of winning the race are overstated.  Remember guys, he was a governor who failed to win reelection.

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by: notaconsultant @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 22:35:51 PM CDT

2003 wasn't necessarily a highpoint for Democrats.

We got our asses kicked in statewide races a bit in 2002 - 2004 elections.  

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by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 23:46:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

2002-2003

We lost Southern Democratic Governors in
AL-Seigelman
GA- Barnes
SC- Hodges

In 1999 Musgrove narrowly won the MS Governors Race against Mike Parker despite public opinion polls showing Musgrove with a 10 point lead.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 00:10:02 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

polling showed Cannon with a 4 pt lead

while he lost by 20.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 00:35:27 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Musgrove and Cannon had incumbecy advantages over their

opponents.

Senate candidates who are not well known statewide but are trailing their opponents by a single digit margin are likely to win or benifit from this change election.

Begich(AK)
Slattery(KS)
Hagan(NC)
Merkley(OR)
Allen(ME)
Franken(MN)

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by: nkpolitics @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 00:56:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

.

I'm not sure if I get your point.  I mean, I get what you mean by your post, but if you're trying to use this point to argue that we shouldn't be backing Musgrove, then I gotta disagree with you.  If what you say is correct (and I think it is), that's probably even better reason to help Musgrove out.

And it's totally up to you to choose who you'll donate to.  And I'll also admit that I'm probably not as liberal as you are.  But the fact remains that that's Mississippi, and if we can win it, it'll bring us one step closer to the magic number of 10 seats gained.  We won't get a liberal out of Mississippi; we'll get either a conservative Democrat or a Republican.  And given that choice, I'd rather have the conservative Democrat.  Keep in mind that the sixty-seat figure is probably more useful than any ideological purity test, in actually getting progressive legislation.  Voting with us some of the time is better than voting with us none of the time.

And in the event that we win this MS-Sen-special seat and at least 10 other seats, it still never hurts to have another Democrat--especially having one who can keep a Republican from that same seat.

So I say we fight for it.  Ronnie Musgrove is the best Democrat we can get who can win this, so let's win this now.  If Mississippi becomes more progressive in the future, we can then primary him out if we need to.  But still, no matter what, having him there better than having Roger Wicker there.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 01:24:59 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

MS-Senate is a semi open seat election unlike the other Senate Races in the

Expand the Map- act Blue list.

Looking at the 7 Open Republican Seats including the Special Elections in Mississippi and Wyoming. We strongly favored to win in
Virginia(Warner-D)
New Mexico(Udall-D)
Colorado(Udall-D)

The Mississippi Race is a tossup.

We are the underdogs in
Idaho
Nebraska
Wyoming

Looking at the Republican Incumbents
We are strongly favored to unseat
Sununu(NH)

Steven(AK),Coleman(MN),Collins(ME),Smith(OR)and Dole(NC) are 50-50 chances.

Defeating incumbents in
Kansas
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Texas

It may be difficult but it is doable.

The DSCC is probally investing all of their resources in battleground senate Races like  LA-protect Landrieu. CO,NH,AK,MS,MN,ME,OR,and NC. Their is a 50-50 chance we may lose one of the battleground states no matter how much money we invest in.

In Senate Races such as Kansas,Kentucky,Oklahoma,and Texas. The Republican incumbents can act very arrogantly. and on November- we will be looking at Senator Elect LoRocco,Slattery,Kleeb,Rice,and Noriega.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 14:00:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

outsider advantage

Also, if it redeems me in any way, in your perspective, I support Debbie Holmes for Congress, and actually included her on my "Democratic Future" ActBlue page (see Swing State Project for the link).  And others.  There are a lot of progressive candidates that are just running at the wrong time or under the wrong circumstances.  And I haven't figured out how yet (I ain't a professional strategist or something), but I feel that we should lend these people enough support such that they, even though they won't win, can start building the groundwork for electoral success in unlikely places (such as, in this case, ID-02).

Also, I'm missing an "is" in the last sentence of my above comment.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
Democratic Future ActBlue page

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 01:30:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Okay,

I pushed Begich past the goal, and chipped in for Merkley as well.  I really don't believe Oregonians will send Mr. Smith back to Washington this year.

And, there seems to be a mapping error between the Expand the Map box at the top left and ActBlue's page.  I entered amounts for Begich and Merkley, hit contribute, and arrived at ActBlue with those amounts filled in for Begich and Hagan instead.

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by: lilnev @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 13:38:22 PM CDT

HTML problem fixed

The Merkley-to-Hagan issue has been resolved.  My apologies for the hiccup!

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by: Senate Guru @ Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 18:13:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]