Senate Guru's 2010 Senate Race Ratings

I'd only change one thing.

Switch Missouri to Lean D, moving New Hampshire to Toss Up.  The strength of Robin Carnahan's candidacy compared to the hapless Blunt has me thinking that she's got a significant edge.  New Hampshire will come our way in the end, but right now Hodes isn't blowing anyone away in the polls or with fundraising, and he does have some serious competition (though I think Ayotte will be a bust and Lamontage, to borrow a line from Shakespear, a lot of "sound and fury, signifying nothing.")  Just my one little thought there.

Check out Blue Arkansas:
http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/

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by: ARDem @ Thu Aug 13, 2009 at 21:19:31 PM CDT

One or two things here

I'd move New Hampshire into Toss Up, Kentucky into Lean R, Cali and NYB into Likely D. Once we recruit a candidate in NC move it into toss-up and if they can get Hoeven in ND that would move directly into Lean D. Very conservative estimates, but its early in the cycle and things are liable to heat up.

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by: pierredude @ Thu Aug 13, 2009 at 22:38:19 PM CDT

I wouldn't wish John McCain on Arkansas (I like Arkansas too much)

Should be AZ (McCain)

http://CanMcCainBeTrusted.tk/

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by: Thane Eichenauer @ Thu Aug 13, 2009 at 23:40:05 PM CDT

Methinks you're too optimistic . . .

. . . regarding Louisiana.  I honestly don't see how we can win that one, absent Mitch Landrieu parachuting into the race.  That one's not "Lean R"-- it is "Safe R."

Beyond that, I agree 100% with ARDem.

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by: The Caped Composer @ Fri Aug 14, 2009 at 06:47:33 AM CDT

Reports have it

that Congressman Charlie Melancon is preparing to enter the race (and Vitter is already ham-handedly attacking Congressman Melancon, so I'm operating as if his entry is far more likely than not).

That said, early polls put Vitter-Melancon in competitive standing.  Research 2000 says it's a 7-point race, and Public Policy Polling says it's a 12-point race.  Further, in both polls, Congressman Melancon holds Hookerlover under 50%.  And that's before formally announcing, introducing himself statewide beyond his Congressional district, and the media reminding voters that Vitter never really answered for his "very serious sin."

On top of all that, any statewide Democrat's base, New Orleans, will maximize turnout to replace Rep. Cao with a Democrat.

And Vitter's entire campaign will be to make the John Breaux-style conservative Democrat Melancon's voting record appear liberal, which will only serve to make Vitter look like a hypocrite.

Once Congressman Melancon announces, we'll have a top tier race.  Hence, Lean R as opposed to Likely R or Safe R.

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by: Senate Guru @ Fri Aug 14, 2009 at 08:35:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

ARDem is right, and...

Yup, Missouri should be Lean Dem, while NH is toss-up for now.  I also think Kentucky is Lean R until Conway/Mongiardo shows he can force the race into a toss-up as the campaign proceeds.  Colorado should be Lean Dem--I am a Dem in Colorado, and have not been all that impressed with Bennet so far--he seems to have some vulnerabilities.  Those are my two cents.

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by: bmjohnson75 @ Fri Aug 14, 2009 at 07:52:10 AM CDT