| By now, you've heard that President Obama has nominated federal appeals judge Sonia Sotomayor for the opening on the U.S. Supreme Court created by the impending retirement of Justice David Souter.
Moving forward, one of the biggest political questions regarding the nomination is how will Senate Republicans react to the nomination. I think it's safe to assume that 60 votes of support will be needed to confirm the nomination due to Republican obstruction - unless support is so overwhelming that a filibuster would be useless and the Senate GOP chooses instead for good PR, avoiding obstruction and then crowing about their not filibustering the nomination.
First, let's look at the vote confirming Judge Sotomayor to the Second Circuit. She was confirmed by a 67-29 vote, and several Republicans still in the Senate supported her. Among those voting "yea" on her 1998 confirmation were: Robert Bennett (R-UT), Thad Cochran (R-MS), Susan Collins (R-ME), Judd Gregg (R-NH), Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Dick Lugar (R-IN), Olympia Snowe (R-ME), and Arlen Specter (then-R-PA). It is also important to note that not one single Democrat opposed her confirmation.
If those eight Republican (and formerly-Republican) Senators supported Judge Sotomayor's confirmation, the Senate GOP leadership would certainly be unable to filibuster their way to blocking President Obama's pick. One can note that current Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski's father, former Senator Frank Murkowski, also supported Judge Sotomayor's 1998 confirmation, if that is any indication as to how the younger Murkowski might vote. Nevertheless, I'd bet that it is unlikely that all eight of those Senators listed will vote to support Sotomayor's confirmation this time around - and I'm referring most specifically to the two Republicans from Utah. Robert Bennett is going to face a primary challenge from his right next year in the person of state Attorney General Mark Shurtleff. With Bennett having to shore up his right flank, he may oppose the pick for political reasons; and, I wouldn't be surprised if Orrin Hatch gave his colleague political cover by also opposing the pick.
The Sotomayor nomination this time around has already received plaudits from recently-Republican Arlen Specter, Maine Republican Olympia Snowe, and non-Democrat Joe Lieberman. Expect the White House to be in frequent contact with Republicans Susan Collins, Judd Gregg, and Dick Lugar to gain their support. For what it's worth, Susan Collins has demonstrated in the past that, on issues like this (see: habeas corpus restoration), she needs Olympia Snowe's political cover. If Snowe votes yea, Collins will feel compelled to vote yea. Also, given that Dick Lugar was the first Republican to voice support for President Obama's nomination of Dawn Johnsen to the Office of Legal Counsel, expect Lugar to be very open-minded to a yea vote.
After looking at Republicans who have already supported Judge Sotomayor in the past, we should now look to the Gang of 14, fourteen "centrist" Senators who sought to avoid use of the filibuster against certain George W. Bush judicial nominees as well as avoid the elimination of the filibuster from Senate rules (the so-called "nuclear option"). Ten of the 14 "Gang" members are still members of the U.S. Senate: Robert Byrd (D-WV), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Daniel Inouye (D-HI), Mary Landrieu (D-LA), John McCain (R-AZ), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Mark Pryor, (D-AR), Collins, Lieberman, and Snowe. As the 2008 Republican Presidential nominee, McCain's opinion on Sotomayor will be noteworthy. However, even more critical than McCain's potential support is Lindsey Graham's, what with Graham sitting on the Judiciary Committee.
In fact, Lindsay Graham is the least far-right-wing Republican on the Judiciary Committee (alongside Republicans Jeff Sessions, Hatch, Chuck Grassley, Jon Kyl, John Cornyn, and Tom Coburn). Further, Sessions, Grassley, and Kyl all opposed Sotomayor's 1998 confirmation. Ultimately, as both a Gang of 14 member and as the least far-right-wing Republican on the Judiciary Committee, Lindsay Graham's support may be the most critical to President Obama. Expect him to personally contact Graham with some frequency. Graham will face political pressure to oppose the pick, especially with South Carolina colleague Jim DeMint not mincing words:
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) - perhaps the most conservative member of the Senate - said Tuesday that some of Sotomayor's writings "seem to raise serious questions about her approach to the Constitution and the role of the federal judiciary." But that's about as far as any Senate Republican was willing to go in criticizing Sotomayor, and even DeMint vowed to "withhold judgment" about Sotomayor's nomination "until she has the opportunity to fully present her views before the Senate."
A few of the most conservative Democrats may give the White House heartburn on the pick - I'm referring to Evan Bayh (D-IN), Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Ben Nelson (D-NE), and Mark Pryor (D-AR). Landrieu, Nelson, and Pryor are Gang of 14 members, and President Obama will no doubt appeal to their sensibilities as such. (Also, Landrieu isn't up for re-election again until 2014, a long way off, so she shouldn't feel political pressure to buck her Party.) And if Pryor provides Arkansas colleague Lincoln will political cover, Lincoln's support should be fine. So, as long as Evan Bayh doesn't grandstand, I'd expect President Obama to hold the Democratic Caucus' support.
The Republican National Committee has already coughed up the ball, accidentally releasing their talking points on the Sotomayor nomination. The talking points indicate that Republican strategy will be to appear deliberative and open-minded while baselessly bashing Judge Sotomayor's qualifications and fear-mongering on conservative social issues all the while.
With Snowe, Specter, and Lieberman all indicating support for the Sotomayor nomination already, the most important Senators to track are Lindsay Graham, Susan Collins, Dick Lugar, Lisa Murkowski, John McCain, Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor, and Blanche Lincoln. Meanwhile, expect Senate GOP leadership to steadily criticize Judge Sotomayor (ignorant of the political impact that their criticism will have on diminishing Latino support for Republicans in the future, particularly in 2012). If it is clear that Republicans could not sustain a filibuster once the confirmation comes to a vote, I doubt that they would welcome further obstructionist taunts - but if it looks close, certainly expect the Senate GOP to filibuster and obstruct with a smile on their faces. |
