Thanksgiving Weekend Round-Up

  • FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver follows up his 2010 Senate Rankings, Part I with his 2010 Senate Rankings, Part II, in which he ranks the 20th through the 11th most vulnerable Senate seats.  His list: 20, Dodd, D-CT; 19, Vitter, R-LA; 18, Murkowski, R-AK; 17, Grassley, R-IA; 16, Kaufman/?, D-DE; 15, ?, D-IL; 14, Boxer, D-CA; 13, Isakson, R-GA; 12, Salazar, D-CO; and, 11, Bond, R-MO.
  • Georgia: While the latest Research 2000 poll does give Saxby Chambliss a 52-46 edge over Jim Martin, brownsox notes that “Martin leads among early voters, 56% to 44%.”  Meanwhile, a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution column slams Chambliss’ blind devotion to Big Business, much to the detriment of Georgia’s families.  Also, while Chambliss and his right-wing pals dish out the most disgusting, reprehensible, integrity-free garbage in their attack ads, such dishonest attacks against Martin have been found by independent reviews to be entirely misleading.  Not that Saxby Chambliss cares about minor values like honesty and integrity.  On the plus side, former Senator Max Cleland is working hard to get the word out for Martin in the final days of the run-off, and Martin has released a new ad slamming Chambliss for opposing benefits for veterans.
  • Illinois: Was it a slip of the tongue, or is Governor Rod Blagojevich leaning toward naming Congressman Danny Davis to succeed Barack Obama in the U.S. Senate?
  • Nevada: A new Research 2000 poll suggests that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is highly vulnerable.  The poll puts Reid’s approve-disapprove at a poor 38-54, with 41% of respondents saying they’d vote to replace Reid and only 44% of Democratic respondents saying they’d vote to re-elect Reid.  That’s really bad.  Really bad.  Further, in a hypothetical match-up against Republican Congressman Jon Porter (who just lost his re-election bid), Reid only narrowly leads 46-40.  kos concludes:

    This race will clearly be a marquee 2010 battle. It may very well be the only serious pickup opportunity for Republicans. So we’ll have a majority leader who is under serious electoral pressure at home, who is deeply unliked by his own constituents, leading our Senate caucus. If you think the cautious and ineffective Reid of the past two years was bad, we may be in store for much worse in the coming year.It’s time Reid seriously consider resigning his leadership post so he can focus full-time on winning reelection. The state’s changing demographics and the thousands of newly registered voters (thanks to Obama) are likely Reid’s salvation, but if he continues his half-assed leadership efforts, that won’t do either him, nor the Democratic caucus any favors.

  • Pennsylvania: Tweety for Senate Watch (at least among political junkies following such news) reached a fever pitch Thanksgiving week.  First came a report that MSNBC host Chris Matthews met with Pennsylvania Democrats to discuss a 2010 Senate challenge to Republican Arlen Specter.  Then came a report that Matthews had previously met with Democratic former Congressman Joe Hoeffel, Specter’s 2004 Democratic opponent, to discuss a bid.  Subsequently, a Pennsylvania Democratic Party official went on the record about the meeting.  Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight.com’s Sean Quinn reported that Matthews has reached out to Obama staffers about working on a potential Matthews for Senate campaign.  Matthews then denied that report.  The whole to-do earns the 23/6.com treatment.  On top of this, a new Quinnipiac University poll matches up Specter against Matthews and finds Specter leading 45-33.  The poll also puts Specter’s approve-disapprove at a strong 62-25 and his favorable-unfavorable at a solid 56-23.  A Q-poll from almost four months ago had a tighter result of Specter 41, Matthews 36.  Public Policy Polling’s poll from November put the match-up at Specter 40, Matthews 27.
  • Alabama: State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks is apparently running for something in 2010.  It’s more likely Governor than Senator, but, believe it or not, it’s not clear.  We’ll keep an eye out.
  • Connecticut: Not only did Joe Lieberman endorse Republicans, but he contributed to them, too.  Splendid.
  • I’m rooting for Gwen.  Taegan is rooting for Chuck.  (I think Chuck is a phenomenal analyst; it’s just that his style doesn’t lend itself to being the probing interviewer as much as, well, the thoughtful analyst.)  Who are you rooting for?

by: you @ soon

Alabama:

I’d prefer that Sparks go for the Senate, cause I’d like to see Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom Jr. get the Governorship.

Check out my sites-http://conservativestateproject.blogspot.com/

http://2010garacetracker.wetpa…

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by: SE-779 @ Sun Nov 30, 2008 at 11:38:12 AM CST

by: you @ soon

Regarding Alabama and some other states.

Democrats have a better chance winning the 2010 AL Governors Race in the General Election than winning the 2010 AL US Senate Race against the popular incumbent Rick Shelby or an open Seat(GOP nominee- Governor Rob Riley). Sparks,Folsom,and Davis will all run for AL Governor in 2010.


by: nkpolitics @ Sun Nov 30, 2008 at 13:21:04 PM CST

by: you @ soon

For AL-GOV,

Go Folsom Jr.!!!

Check out my sites-http://conservativestateproject.blogspot.com/

http://2010garacetracker.wetpa…

http://oldrockbands.wetpaint.com/


by: SE-779 @ Sun Nov 30, 2008 at 14:47:35 PM CST

by: you @ soon

2010 US Senate ranking.

Likely Takeover.
1)Iowa(OPEN-Grassley-R) Dem(Vilsack,Braley,Loesback)vs GOP(King,Latham)
2)Kentucky(Bunning-R)-Likely Takeover even if open. Dem(Chandler,Mongiardo)
3)Ohio(OPEN-Voinovich-R) Dem(Fisher,Ryan)vs GOP(Portman).
4)Pennsylvania(OPEN-Specter-R)- Dem(Schwartz,Sestak,Murphy),vs GOP(Dent,Gerlach).
Lean Takeover
1)Arizona(OPEN-McCain-R)- Dem(Giffords)vs Rep(Shadegg,Flake).
2)Florida(Martinez-R)- vs DEM(Sink,Klein,Castor).
3)Missouri(OPEN-Bond-R)- DEM(Carnahan siblings)vs GOP(Talent)
4)North Carolina(Burr-R)-vs DEM(Miller,Shuler,Moore,Cooper).
Tossup
1)Kansas(OPEN-Brownback-R)if Sebelius is the Dem Nominee.
2)Missouri(Bond-R)vs DEM(Carnahan Siblings)
3)Ohio(Voinovich-R) vs DEM (Fisher,Ryan)
Lean Retention
1)Alabama(OPEN-Shelby-R)- DEM(Davis)vs REP(Rogers)
2)Colorado(Salazar-D)
3)Hawaii(OPEN-Inouye-D)- DEM(Hirono)vs REP(Lingle)
4)Kansas(OPEN-Brownback-R)w/out Sebelius-D
5)Louisiana(Vitter-R)
6)Nevada(Reid-D)
7)Pennsylvania(Specter-R)vs DEM(Schwartz,Sestak,Murphy)
Likely Retention
1)Alaska(Murkowski-R)
2)Arkansas(Lincoln-D)
3)California(Boxer-D)
4)Colorado(Salazar-D)if Tancredo,Musgrave are GOP nominee.
5)Delaware(OPEN-Biden-D) DEM Nominee(Beau Biden,John Carney).
6)Georgia(Isakson-R)
7)Illinios(OPEN-Obama-D)- DEM Nominee(Jesse Jackson Jr,Dan Hynes,Lisa Madigan)
8)Iowa(Grassley-R)
9)New Hampshire(Gregg-R)
10)New York(OPEN-Clinton-D)- DEM Nominee(Andrew Cuomo)
11)Washington(Murray-D)
12)Wisconsin(Feingold-D)


by: nkpolitics @ Sun Nov 30, 2008 at 14:21:34 PM CST

by: you @ soon

Gwen Awfull????

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!  She was a terrible moderator of the VP debate (and was just as bad four years earlier, when she moderated that VP debate).  I have never been impressed with her.  Out of all the names being mentioned, Chuck Todd is the best, although his problem is that he’s more of a numbers guy than an interviewer . . . but, either way, PLEASE, not Gregory, not Mitchell, and not Awfull, er, Ifill!!!!


by: The Caped Composer @ Sun Nov 30, 2008 at 17:15:55 PM CST

by: you @ soon

Gregory

Is the one that i’d like to see get whatever he is running for.

Check out my sites-http://conservativestateproject.blogspot.com/

http://2010garacetracker.wetpa…

http://oldrockbands.wetpaint.com/


by: SE-779 @ Mon Dec 01, 2008 at 10:12:04 AM CST

by: you @ soon

How many open seats are we expecting in 2010.

Besides KS(OPEN Brownback-R) and DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D).Inouye(D-HI) and Specter(R-PA)are in their 80′s. Inouye is the Asian Ted Stevens of the Aloha. He now chairs the Appropriations committee- as long as he does not build the Bridge to Nowhere to the Hawaiin Islands, He is safe. Specter is in poor health and he is in the minority- Specter(R-PA)is going to retire.

Shelby(R-AL),McCain(R-AZ),Boxer(D-CA),Grassley(R-IA),Bunning(R-KY),Mikulski(D-MD),Bond(R-MO),Reid(D-NV),Voinovich(R-OH),Bennett(R-UT)and Leahy(D-VT)are in their 70′s  Boxer,Reid,and Leahy occupy committee chairmanships. Grassley(R-IA)is most likely a candidate for Retirement. He is in his 70′s and has been in the US Senate for 30 years.


by: nkpolitics @ Sun Nov 30, 2008 at 17:25:29 PM CST

by: you @ soon

Chuck Todd

Senate Guru, the Hokie Guru is rooting for Chuck Todd.  No one is better at his game than Chuck Todd… Tim Russert personally hired Chuck Todd… Chuck Todd is very analytical and can ask the probing question… he just is not asked to in his current role… he’s awesome at analysis and I don’t think he will have trouble asking the tough questions.By the way, one of my favorite blogs is shutting down in Virginia… Raising Kaine is going away at the end of the year.  Lowell Feld, author of Net Roots Rising, is going to focus on alternative energy issues.  Lowell changed the Virginia Blogopshere forever.

Not Larry Sabato will run the show now.

Hokie Guru

http://firebryanstinespring.bl…


by: hokieguru @ Sun Nov 30, 2008 at 19:00:52 PM CST

by: you @ soon

I hope someone steps up replaces Lowell and

RK.  I’m not a fan of Not Larry Sabato.  Then again, I’m out of VA after I graduate in May, so I suppose it does not matter to me.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


by: wmlawman @ Mon Dec 01, 2008 at 19:19:22 PM CST

Click here for the new senate guru blog…

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