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- Americans prefer that Democrats instead of Republicans control Congress, by a two-to-one margin:
Forty-six percent of those questioned in a Diageo/Hotline survey released Wednesday say they would support the generic Democrat in the 2010 elections for the House of Representatives, with 22 percent backing the generic Republican candidate. That’s a 24 point lead for Democratic congressional candidates in the so called “generic ballot” question, which asks voters their preference for the U.S. House without naming the candidates running in each district.These results are in line with a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted two weeks ago that found that 56 percent of those questioned think the country would be better off if Congress was controlled by Democrats. That 25 points higher than the 31 percent who said the nation would be better off if Republicans controlled Congress.
But that’s not all. When Republicans try to suggest that Americans disapprove of Congress in general, keep this point in mind:
Forty-nine percent of those questioned in the Diageo/Hotline survey approve of how the Democrats in Congress are performing, with 38 percent disapproving. As for the GOP minority: Disapproval jumps to 62 percent, with 26 percent approving of how congressional Republicans are handling their jobs.
Let the GOP be the GOP. And let the nation keep getting bluer.
- Swing State Project unleashes its first Senate Race Ratings of the 2010 cycle. Very solid and thorough analysis – no big disagreements from me.
- Florida: Both Democratic Congressman Allen Boyd and Republican state Attorney General Bill McCollum announced that they are out of the 2010 Senate scrum.
- Minnesota: It appears that Norm Coleman may have faked his own website crash as a way to claim substantial support. Kudos to MNPublius’ Aaron Landry for the terrific detective work. After Coleman’s star witnesses in his election contest were a bust and his “evidence” was shown to be faulty, I guess he’s really digging deep in the theatrics barrel.
- New York: Senator Kristen Gillibrand is making a couple of moves to enhance her chances of avoiding a primary challenger. Firstly, she is reportedly meeting with Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy at some point in the next week and a half. No doubt they will discuss the issue of gun control, among other issues, and figure out where they can work together. Will this meeting reassure McCarthy and put her primary threats to rest or reaffirm McCarthy’s commitment to challenge Senator Gillibrand if she decides that they are too ideologicallly far apart? We’ll see. Secondly, Senator Gillibrand has retained the services of one of New York’s most powerful Hispanic power brokers to help with outreach to the Hispanic community. If he does his job, she’ll see less press that looks like this.
- Kentucky: Republicans really want Jim Bunning to retire. Shortly after Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell had a “lapse of memory” over his Kentucky colleague Bunning’s 2010 re-election plans, NRSC Chair John Cornyn apparently “didn’t listen very well” to Bunning’s re-election announcement:
A day after Sen. Jim Bunning insisted he would seek a third term, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee said he still wasn’t sure whether the Kentucky Republican would actually run.”I don’t think he’s made a decision on whether to run,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), head of the NRSC. “We’re working with Sen. Bunning now to provide him all the information he needs in order to make that decision.”
Bunning’s response: “he’s either deaf or he didn’t listen very well.”
The issue is extraordinarily sensitive for Republicans. They fear that Bunning’s erratic behavior and his poor fundraising could imperil the party’s chances to hold onto the seat, as Politico reported last week. But they also don’t want to be seen as trying to push the senator to step aside. …
When pressed if he’d endorse Bunning if he runs for reelection, Cornyn said: “I have to say, if he does, we’re going to support our incumbents.”
Very smooth, Cornyn. I hope Bunning runs for re-election, if only to spite the Republicans trying to push him out the door. I may even have to add Bunning to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.
- Colorado: Senator Michael Bennet could have a very tough Republican opponent in 2010. However, early indications suggest otherwise:
State Republican Party Chairman Dick Wadhams said Republicans considering a run for the Senate include former congressman Bob Beauprez, former state Senate majority leader and state treasurer Mark Hillman, KHOW-AM talk show host Dan Kaplis and Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier.
Hillman served as Treasurer for a short stint in 2005-2006, appointed by then-Gov. Bill Owens (R) when then-Treasurer Mike Coffman was called to duty in Iraq. Hillman ran for a full term in 2006 and lost by 40,000 votes to now-Treasurer Cary Kennedy. That margin of defeat was nothing compared to Beauprez’s 2006 loss against Bill Ritter for Governor, a 213,000 vote Republican loss. And these are the CO-GOP’s top prospects.
- Kansas: According to an internal poll from Republican Jerry Moran’s 2010 Senate campaign, Moran has a substantial lead in his Senate primary campaign against fellow GOP Congresscritter Todd Tiahrt, leading 41-25, with 34% undecided. The poll shows that, among Kansas Republicans, both Moran and Tiahrt enjoy approval ratings in the 40s and disapproval ratings in the single digits.
- North Carolina: Politico is speculating that former President Bill Clinton’s attendance at a fundraiser for Congressman Heath Shuler is a signal that Congressman Shuler is more strongly considering a 2010 Senate bid against Republican freshman Richard Burr. Also in attendance at the Shuler fundraiser was another Democrat considered a top tier potential Senate challenger, state Attorney General Roy Cooper.
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I’ve got to disagree with the swing state list in one BIG regard.
Lisa Murkowski’s vulnerable, and not just to Sarah Palin. I’m really pulling for Scott Kawasaki to make a run for this one. He’d be a great candidate for a statewide election, a solid western populist progressive with a great life story, endorsed by every major union in the most unionized state in the country and the NRA who’s shown he can run a strong race in a tough republican district.
Check out Blue Arkansas:
http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/
by: ARDem @ Thu Jan 29, 2009 at 12:42:18 PM CST
Alaska is much more red that was expected
I understand where SSP is coming from. In 2008 Begich barely beat (given the circumstances) indicted Sen. Ted Stevens.On the House side, GOP Rep Don Young managed to win re-election over hi-profile Dem opponent Ethan Berkowitz.
The Dem bench is weak, and even if a dynamic candidate is found, he/she will have a hard time overcoming the sitting GOP Senator.
…Bunnning is vulnerable…Murkowski, at this time, is not.
by: PhilDeco @ Thu Jan 29, 2009 at 13:31:04 PM CST
by: you @ soon
I have a pet theory on that.
Alaska was looking good on all levels, house, senate, and even the presidency until McCain selected Palin. Having the popular governor on the ticket drove out enough Republican support to give Stevens and Young a boost. This is doable this year I think. And hey, what have we got to lose by being bullish?
Check out Blue Arkansas:
http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/
by: ARDem @ Thu Jan 29, 2009 at 14:45:04 PM CST
by: you @ soon
FL-SEN:
Politico is reporting Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL 13) spoke with NRSCC Chair John Cornyn (R). He was escorted by retiring Senator Mel Martinez (R).
Though if Buchanan runs for Senate he would bring some baggage.
Read here: http://www.heraldtribune.com/a…
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by: SE-779 @ Thu Jan 29, 2009 at 14:12:05 PM CST
Blagojevich impeached and convicted unanimously!
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by: SE-779 @ Thu Jan 29, 2009 at 16:58:11 PM CST
And by a unanimous vote, he can’t run anymore!
Check out Blue Arkansas:
http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/
by: ARDem @ Thu Jan 29, 2009 at 17:13:27 PM CST
by: you @ soon
And to those who are clearly corrupt and don’t deserve to hold office.
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by: SE-779 @ Thu Jan 29, 2009 at 17:58:29 PM CST
Schuler… yes!!!
I am so glad Clinton is helping Schuler… this rocks!!
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