Early Thursday Morning Round-Up

by: you @ soon

I am predicting the Joe Biden is going to be Obama’s VP runningmate

since he has foriegn policy experience- Senior Democratic Senator on the Foreign Relations(Chairman) and Judiciary Committee(former Chairman). Attack Dog Personallity(Good on Sunday Shows)- Unafraid to challenge Rudy and McCain. He appeals to working class Reagan Democrats. His home state has a Democratic Governor and will have a Democratic Governor in 2009. If Biden becomes VP he will be replaced by his son Beau,or Jack Markell(DE State Treasurer).
Biden is in his mid 60′s so it is highly unlikely he is going to be the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2016- since he will be in his 70′s.That brings us Mark Warner- He is a popular former Governor from a battleground state- and will be a US Senator from a battleground State. He has given the Keynote Address at the Democratic Convention in 2008. Warner is likely to be Obama’s VP runningmate during his bid for a second term 2012. In 2016- Mark Warner becomes the front runner for the 2016 Democratic Presidential nomination.

Regarding Bayh- had Joe Kernan not lost to Mitch Daniels in 2004- Bayh would have been a sure bet for the 2008 Democratic Vice Presidential slot.

by: nkpolitics @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 10:44:59 AM CDT

by: you @ soon


Delaware law allow Biden to run for his seat and for VP at the same time–ala Lieberman in 2000?  Whatever Democrat that’s thrown in could probably beat Christine O’Donnell anyway, but I’m curious.  And when would a special election be held, assuming Biden is replaced after he’s reelected this fall? Also, voters often don’t like nepotism, so they may not like appointing Biden’s son.  Appointing Markell probably depends on the outcome of the gubernatorial primary.  If the race gets nasty, Carney wouldn’t appoint him (and Markell could win the race too).  Obviously, John Carney, should he lose to Markell (gracefully), would be another option.

Find me blogging at Political Realm

by: PoliticalRealm @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 16:01:36 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

It doesn’t matter.

Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner is a Democrat.  If Biden becomes VP– or SecState, or any other position in an Obama administration– Minner will likely name the state Attorney General to fill the Senate seat.  And the state AG just happens to be . . . Beau Biden, Joe’s son.  So, either way, there will be a Democratic Senator Biden from Delaware going forward.

by: The Caped Composer @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 18:57:26 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

But does DE Law Allow to Run in 2 Simultaneous Elections

It’d be different if Biden wasn’t running for election himself as Senator in Delaware. Many states do not allow a person to run in two elections at once. So if Biden is to accept the VP nomination, he’d have to take his name off the Senate race. So if DE law forces that, since the Democratic nominee is set (Joe Biden), I’m not familiar with what state law states for how his name is replaced.If he can run in both, and wins in both, he’ll be a Senator in the 111th Congress from the beginning of January and then have to resign on inauguration day (or before) and allow the Democratic Governor of Delaware to appoint a replacement. Again, not sure if they then require a special election after that or the appointment fills out the remainder of the term (basically six years). KELL

by: ryanlkelly @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 21:42:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon


Merkley on tape…

Thanks to the nation of Georgia and a video recorder, Merkley gives the NRSC exteremly cheap and effective campaign video about why this man should not be elected to the Senate.  Ouch!

by: newred @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 10:50:11 AM CDT

by: you @ soon


Supreme Court and the lack of 50%.

The types of judges that Smith would confirm are much different (far right-wing) than those than Merkley would confirm (mainstream).  Fact is, Obama and Oregon supports Merkley, newred… Smith can’t register 50% in a poll… he’s in trouble.

Hokie Guru


by: hokieguru @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 20:29:31 PM CDT

Filibuster Proof Majority

What has been irking me about the talk of a “filibuster proof majority” is that no one has been talking about it in terms of actual functionality.Getting to 60 seats is highly unlikely. And a smaller number doesn’t have the same brand-ability, but 60 isn’t the all out minimum number of seats we’ll need to break filibusters.

The GOP isn’t getting 49 votes every time they are trying to obstruct legislation.  They are winning these things with 44, 43, and 42 backers.

While 55, 56, and 57 don’t sound as impressive as other numbers, there would be little hope for Republicans in succeeding to continually obstruct the Senate if they lost 5 or 6 seats.

A filibuster-proof majority might be significantly smaller than 60.

by: Luke @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 11:17:04 AM CDT

Looking at the Senate Vote Count.

How many of the Republican Senators are going to break with their party.
Can we hold on to defectors like the Nelson twins,Max Baucus,Byrd, etc.

by: nkpolitics @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 13:46:13 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Looking at the Competive Senate Races in 2008.

Alaska- 2008 Alaska US Senate Race reflects the 1974 Alaska US Senate race- The last time Alaska elected a Democrat to the US Senate- (Mike Gravel)- 58-42.

Colorado- 2008 Colorado US Senate Race reflects the 1992 Colorado US Senate Race and 2004 Colorado US Senate Race. Both competitive open seat US Senate Races Presidential years in which the Democratic Nominee won. Salazar(2004)51-47. Campbell(1992) 52-43.

Georgia- 2008 Georgia US Senate Race reflects the 1998 Georgia US Senate Race- Coverdell(R)vs Coles(D) 52-45

Idaho- 2008 Idaho US Senate Race reflects the 1992 Idaho US Senate Race- Last Competitive open US Senate Race in Idaho. Kempthorne(R) vs Stallings(D) 57-43.

Kansas- 2008 Kansas US Senate Race reflects the 1996 Kansas US Senate Race- Brownback(R) vs Docking(D) 54-43

Kentucky- 2008 Kentucky US Senate Race reflects the 1996 Kentucky US Senate Race- McConnell(R) vs Beasher(D) 55-43

Maine- 2008 Maine US Senate Race reflects the 1996 Maine US Senate Race- Collins(R) vs Brennan(D) 49-43

Minnesota- 2008 Minnesota US Senate Race reflects the 1990 US Senate Race- Wellstone(D) vs Boschwitz(R) 50-48 or 2002 Minnesota US Senate Race- Coleman(R) vs Mondale(D) 50-47.

Mississippi- The last time Missississippi had a competitive US Senate race was in 1988- OPEN seat- Lott(R)vs Dowdy(D) 54-46.

Nebraska- 2008 Nebraska US Senate race reflects the 1996 Nebraska US Senate Race- Hagel(R) vs Nelson(D) 56-42.

New Hampshire- Unlike previous Democratic Senate Candidates in New Hampshire- Shaheen(D) is the strongest candidate. 55-45 percent race favoring Shaheen(D).

New Mexico- The last time New Mexico had an open seat was in 1972- Domenici defeated Lt Governor Diane Denish’s father 54-46. Back then 1972- was a pro GOP year Nixon defeated McGovern. This year in 2008 is a pro Democratic year/anti GOP year nationally and in NM. Pearce(R)is a weak candidate. The 2008 NM US Senate Race reflects the 2000 NM US Senate race- Bingaman(D) vs Redmond(R) race- 62-38.

North Carolina- 2008 North Carolina US Senate Race reflects the 2004 North Carolina US Senate Race(Burr-R vs Bowles-D)52-47, 1996 (Helms-R vs Gantt)53-47, 1992 (Faircloth-R vs Sanford) 50-46.

Oklahoma- 2008 Oklahoma US Senate Race reflects the 1996 Oklahoma US Senate Race- Inhofe(R) vs Boren(D) 57-40.

Oregon- 2008 Oregon US Senate Race reflects the 1995 Oregon US Senate Race- Wyden(D) vs Smith(R) 48-47 or 1996 Oregon US Senate Race- Smith(R) vs Bruggere(D) 50-46.

Texas 2008 Texas US Senate Race reflect the 1996 Texas US Senate Race- Gramm(R)vs Morales(D) 55-44

Virginia- 2008- The last time Virginia had an open seat election was in 1988- when Chuck Robb a former Popular Governor won with token opposition- This race was similar to the 2004 Illinios US Senate Race. However- Gilmore is a top tier GOP contender but is highly unpopular- 60-40 race favoring Warner(D).

In addition to picking up
VA,NM,and CO- open seat Races in battleground states with Strong Democratic Candidates and Weak Republican Candidates.
AK- A strong Democratic challenger running against a long time Republican Incumbent indicted and going on trial on corruption charges.
NH- a Democratic leaning Battleground state with a Strong Democratic Challenger- a popular former Governor running against a weak first term Republican US Senator.

we can pick up MN,and OR. both Blue States with Right of Center Republican incumbents. and NC- Dole is a female Lauch Faircloth.

Mark Udall(CO) will be the new Harkin(IA),Wellstone(MN),and Feingold(WI) a progressive Senator who represents a battleground state and will always face tough re-election campaigns.

Click here for the new senate guru blog…

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