Earlier this week, Research 2000 released numbers that showed Senator Christopher Dodd moving back toward a state of political health. Today, Qunnipiac releases similar numbers (with July Q numbers in parentheses):
| Dodd Numbers Approve-Disapprove 43-49 (42-52) Favorable-Unfavorable 40-48 (40-50) |
Dodd v. GOP Dodd v. Rob Simmons 39-44 (39-48) Dodd v. Sam Caligiuri 40-36 (42-40) Dodd v. Tom Foley 40-38 (42-42) Dodd v. Peter Schiff 42-36 (42-38) |
I think what we’re seeing is a middle period, after discontent with Senator Dodd peaked, but before voters remember why they’ve supported Senator Dodd for so many years. They’re in the “open mind” phase – we see his approve and favorable numbers more steady, but his disapprove and unfavorable numbers coming down. Similarly, in the match-ups against the Republicans, Senator Dodd’s numbers are largely stable, but the Republicans’ numbers are dipping across the board (those shed percentage points having been more anti-Dodd than pro-GOP votes).
Connecticut voters haven’t fully kissed and made up with Senator Dodd (which is why he’d be wise to put out the op-ed I suggested), but they’re remembering that they also don’t like voting for most Republicans these days (Gov. Rell being the exception). For now, the most important number of the poll is the match-up between Senator Dodd and former Rep. Simmons, and Senator Dodd has seen his deficit cut from nine points to five points. Don’t be too surprised if the next Q-poll of CT-Sen shows Senator Dodd tied with Simmons at 41 or 42 points apiece.
Click here for the new senate guru blog…