GA-Sen: Top Counties to Watch – UPDATED

The polls close at 7pm ET in today’s Georgia Senate run-off.  As we anxiously await the results, I figured this would be a good primer.  Here are the top ten counties for both Democrat Jim Martin and Republican Saxby Chambliss in terms of their margins of victory in each county on Election Day.  Of course, with turnout lower for the run-off than on Election Day, the totals will be lower.  But, to make up ground, Martin will have to win his counties by relatively larger margins and lose Chambliss’ counties by relatively smaller margins.

County Jim
Martin Saxby
Chambliss Martin
Margin Chambliss
County Saxby
Chambliss Jim
Martin Chambliss
Margin Dekalb 233,727 65,531 168,196 Cherokee 64,464 21,599 42,865 Fulton 249,201 131,438 117,763 Forsyth 54,928 14,601 40,327 Clayton 76,122 15,893 60,229 Cobb 162,249 129,133 33,116 Richmond 46,767 24,709 22,058 Gwinnett 150,433 121,015 29,418 Muscogee 41,324 26,256 15,068 Hall 39,539 15,250 24,289 Chatham 56,596 43,554 13,042 Columbia 36,022 14,896 21,126 Dougherty 23,523 12,534 10,989 Coweta 33,988 15,311 18,677 Clarke 26,202 15,279 10,923 Paulding 35,242 17,335 17,907 Bibb 35,850 26,422 9,428 Fayette 35,528 19,420 16,108 Liberty 9,810 5,108 4,702 Walton 24,619 8,765 15,854

Note that Martin’s top ten counties total 432,398, which was 24.6% of his 1,757,419 Election Day tally.  However, Chambliss’ top ten counties only total 259,687, representing only 13.9% of his 1,867,090 Election Day tally.  This is, of course, due to Chambliss winning most of the smaller counties.  On Election Day, Martin won 42 counties to Chambliss’ 116 counties.  With fewer counties to count on, Martin will be depending on his top ten counties even more than Chambliss is counting on his.

If you’re looking for a bellwether, look to Mitchell County, which saw an Election Day tie between Martin and Chambliss, both candidates winning 3,821 votes, with 99 votes going to the Libertarian Allen Buckley.  Speaking of Buckley, there are nine counties where Buckley exceeded 5% of the vote: Lumpkin (6.4%), White (5.6%), Haralson (5.6%), Gilmer (5.5%), Dawson (5.3%), Hall (5.3%), Barrow (5.2%), Pickens (5.2%), and Cherokee (5.2%).  The largest of those nine counties are Cherokee and Hall.

Here is the link for the Georgia Secretary of State’s Run-off Election Results page.

UPDATE: With 82% in, it looks well over.  Martin is barely winning Fulton County; and, instead of winning Dekalb County by almost 4 to 1, Martin’s only winning by less than 3 to 1.  Meanwhile, Cherokee County went from a 3 to 1 win for Chambliss to a 4 to 1 win, and Forsyth County went from 3.5 to 1 for Chambliss to 5 to 1.  Ugh.

Damn it.

Shameless got reelected. Thanks, Peach State! :PStill, silver lining is the news about Mel Martinez. Florida is great for a campaign roadtrip for 2010!


by: youngbuckbear @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 20:24:42 PM CST

Saxby’s Been Reelected

Congrats to him. Looks like he got his vote out better than Martin did, who went down at least 6 points from his original November 4th total.I guess you overtly partisan, hate-laced for Chambliss open letter got Georgians out to the polls all right. Just the ones that voted for Chambliss. Next time try a little subtlety.

by: Don’t Tase Me, Bro! @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 20:26:45 PM CST

Are you kidding me?

You think that the Chambliss crowd reads this blog and came out to vote because of SenateGuru’s support for Martin?Not at all that it’s a Republican state that went for McCain, Bush, and Dole — a state that swapped Max Cleland for Saxby Chambliss and swapped Roy Barnes for Sonny Perdue and boasts of such fine native sons as Newt, Ralph Reed, and Tom Price?

And I’m sure Obama won only because voters wanted to punish Dennis Miller for being unfunny.

by: jeisrael @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 20:37:35 PM CST

Regarding the Guru’s Blog

I also don’t think enough Martin supporters read this blog to come out to vote for Martin either.

by: Don’t Tase Me, Bro! @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 21:01:21 PM CST

Unfortunately . . .

. . . there are simply not enough progressives in Georgia to win statewide.  So, of course they wouldn’t be flocking to this or any other progressive blog– they simply do not exist.  Time to come to grips with the fact that Georgia is to Republicans what Massachusetts is to Democrats– an unassailable fortress.Frankly, though, I didn’t expect Martin to win, so I’m not feeling particularly down about tonight’s result.  Let the GOP have the south; we’ll take everything else.  Quarantine ‘em!

by: The Caped Composer @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 22:39:56 PM CST

I don’t know if I’d call it unassailable.

Obama got within 5% and Martin within 3% on election night.  It is just going to take a while.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt

by: wmlawman @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 22:50:36 PM CST

Exactly – It’s going to take a while

If everyone who voted for Jim Martin on Election Day turned out for the run-off, he would have won in a landslide over Chambliss’ run-off result.  Democratic voters are there – we just need to do a gargantuan job over time of organizing to improve turnout in just such a situation.  It takes time to build a movement.

by: Senate Guru @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 23:06:57 PM CST

Run-offs such for GA Democrats

Got to win in the General.

Click here for the new senate guru blog…

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