April Cattle Call

my rankings

1. Virginia
2. New Hampshire
3. New Mexico
4. Colorado
5. Minnesota
6. Alaska
7. Oregon
8. Maine
9. North Carolina
10. Oklahoma
11. Nebraska
12. Mississippi-B
13. Texas
14. Kentucky
15. Idahohelp State Sen. Andrew Rice beat crazy Jim Inhofe!

by: blueokie08 @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:10:43 AM CDT

I disagree with the way it is set up, but

by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:21:59 AM CDT

Here’s mine:

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Minnesota
6. Alaska
7. Louisiana
8. Maine
9. Oregon
10. North Carolina
11. Mississippi-B
12. Texas
13. Idaho
14. Nebraska
15. OklahomaCheck out Blue Arkansas:

http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/

April rankings

1.  Virginia
2.  New Mexico
3.  New Hampshire
4.  Colorado
5.  Minnesota
6.  Alaska
7.  (LOUISIANA)
8.  Oregon
9.  Maine
10. North Carolina
11. Mississippi-B
12. Oklahoma
13. Texas
14. Nebraska
15. Kentucky

by: Anesthetic @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:31:54 AM CDT

Here it goes

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Minnesota
6. Alaska
7. Louisiana
8. Oregon
9. Maine
10. Mississippi-B
11. Nebraska
12. North Carolina
13. Texas
14. Oklahoma
15. IdahoHow about that?

by: Populista @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:33:02 AM CDT

Oh and if

by: Populista @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:30:32 PM CDT

Kansas ahead of Nebraska?

by: Populista @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:29:03 PM CDT

Oh please

1. Nebraska is one of the last tier 4 races in the DSCC’s eyes.
2. Mike Johanns is a popular former governor.
3. Nebraska has a solid red tilt, they have 3/3 Republican congressman.
4. That Democratic senator you’re talking about is washed by the fact that Kansas has a Democratic Governor.  Nelson was a GOVERNOR before he ran for senate.  Kleeb is a former congressional candidate before running for senate.  Big difference, your point is defused entirely.Here is how it differs from Kansas:
1. I fully expect Kathleen Sebelius to be the Vice Presidential nominee.  There will be huge turnout for her.
2. Kansas has 2/4 Republican congressional slate.  Not nearly as Republican as Nebraska.
3. Roberts has lackluster approval ratings for a long incumbent senator.
4. Slattery has ELECTED EXPERIENCE, and has run statewide before.

by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 13:14:02 PM CDT

I also forgot to mention

by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 13:23:05 PM CDT

Well

by: Populista @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 14:17:22 PM CDT

how can slattery be ahead of new jersey?

Lautenberg is a popular guy, and it’s a PRIMARY challenge

I’m rating whether they will change parties or not.  And even then, I doubt Lautenberg is going to lose when he has the whole NJ Delegation behind him.

by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 22:32:22 PM CDT

Actually, he’s got an ex-congressman running

as the GOP nominee now.The guy who lost the Senate race in 1996…  his name escapes me at the moment.  Dick Zimmer.. that’s his nameA typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt

by: wmlawman @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 23:19:21 PM CDT

Oh. Pff

1. Bigger state, more expensive
2. We haven’t seen how well this guy can fundraise.

by: Jeremiahthemessiah @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 08:30:56 AM CDT

NJ blues

by: suigeneris @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 15:16:16 PM CDT

WCW

by: suigeneris @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 15:18:03 PM CDT

Kansas also hasn’t elected a Democrat

by: wmlawman @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 14:33:36 PM CDT

You got stones to predict the VP this early

by: vicupstate @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 23:59:12 PM CDT

Senate “Risk” Rankings

1.  New Mexico – Udall’s early numbers look amazing
2.  Virginia – Can the Republicans be any more inept?
3.  New Hampshire – Sununu is all but gone
4.  Minnesota – Frankin is gaining ground fast!
5.  Alaska – Much more competitive than ever expected.
6.  Colorado – Udall has the advantage of early name-recog
7.  Oregon – It doesn’t pay to be a conservative in the PNW
8.  Louisiana – I did have this higher before this weeks #s
9.  Maine – Should be higher – this should be a gimme!
10.  Mississippi-B – ONLY if Obama is the Dem nominee
11.  Idaho – Gimme for the Reps? (Maine in reverse!)
12.  Texas – Interetingly ONLY if Clinton is Dem nominee
13.  Kentucky – Chronic drip, drip, drip of bad Rep press
14.  South Dakota – Loyalty to Johnson may not be enough
15.  Massachusetts – McCain plays well with NE moderates!

by: jmgnewyork @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:46:30 AM CDT

South Dakota?!?!

Absolutey not.  New Jersey, ok, fine, possibly maybe but very highly doubtful, but South Dakota is safe safe safe.

by: AndrewMN @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 16:40:14 PM CDT

Forget SD… Massachusetts?

by: wmlawman @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 18:12:29 PM CDT

Yeah

by: Populista @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 18:29:24 PM CDT

Exactly.

by: wmlawman @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 19:23:51 PM CDT

Hell

by: Populista @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 19:55:19 PM CDT

I was thinking the same thing when I wrote the comment, but I figured I’d just leave it as it was.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt

lol

Sometimes

Forget SD… Massachusetts?

Just trying to temper expectations

Yes, but Kerry looks like he’s going to face

My rankings

Pickup rate

April Rankings…

I’d only see a 4 seat gain for the Dems.And yes, I think “only” a four seat gain is awesome!

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt

Here’s mine

i’ll add my 2 cents 90+% chance of pick-up:

senate rankings

Heres mine

Noriega just reported $300,000 cash on hand

I actually put it 16 as the soonest, just because

This Q?

My rankings…

Shameless advertising for…

Rankings

1)  R-VA (Mark Warner)
2)  R-NM (Tom Udall)
3)  R-NH (Shaheen)
4)  R-CO (Mark Udall)
5)  R-MN (Franken)
6)  R-AK (Begich)
7)  R-ME (Allen)
 D-LA (Landrieu)
9)  R-OR (Merkley/Novick)
10) R-NC (Hagan/Neal)
11) R-MS-B (Musgrove)
12) R-KY (Lunsford)
13) R-OK (Rice)
14) R-ID (LaRocco)
15) R-TX (Noriega)

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Yup

Rankings…

1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Alaska
6) Minnesota
7) Oregon
Maine
9) Mississippi-B
10) North Carolina
11) Nebraska
12) Oklahoma
13) Idaho
14) Kentucky
15) Texas

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rankings

1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Minnesota
6) Alaska
7) Oregon
Louisiana
9) Maine
10) Mississippi-B
11) Nebraska
12) Kentucky
13) Texas
14) Oklahoma
15) Idaho

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Survey says

1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Minnesota
5) Louisiana
6) Colorado
7) Alaska
Maine
9) Oregon
10) Mississippi – B
11) Kentucky
12) Texas
13) Oklahoma
14) North Carolina
15) IdahoObservations – Many here are much are too hopeful on the subject of Liddy Dole.  If there were a Tier A candidate against her, she’d be in trouble, but the current crop doesn’t inspire much fear.  Flip this for Kentucky.  I know Lunsford is not a favorite of the blogs, and he’s not Chandler, and he’s done a lot of dumb things, but he’s properly situated to ride the wave if Obama is the nominee.  Same for Ronnie Musgrove, but he is potentially a star candidate.  Expect to see Schumer put far more resources into MS than one would otherwise expect.

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Really?

In addition to Jeremiahthemessiah’s comment…

True enough

Okay

Clinton lost NC by 0.79% in ’92

Guru, any reason why you do 15 and not 10?

ditto

I’m all about nuance

Haha. Your blog, your rules. I get it.

April Rankings

Mine:

Here is the Hokie Guru’s Cattle Call

The Hokie Guru thinks that Mark Warner wins by 20 points or more.  The Hokie Guru is excited that Virginia will have two Democratic Senators; this has not happened since 1971.1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Oregon
6) Minnesota
7) Maine
Alaska
9) Louisiana
10) Kentucky
11) Mississippi
12) Texas
13) Oklahoma
14) North Carolina
15) IdahoHokie Guru

http://firebryanstinespring.bl…

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Senate Rankings

I am

Here’s how I evaluate it:

The first is a good point

I think the fundraising hurts because of the split primary

That may be it.

The way I see it,

My only criticism is on your comment on Iowa

Here goes . . .

Tier 1– Buy the Blue Confetti in Advance:
1.  Virginia– Warner walks on water.
2.  New Mexico– Udall is crushing both GOPers in both polls and fundraising.
3.  New Hampshire– I rank this one third, only because I still have a wisp of underlying worry about Sununu’s propensity to cheat.  But I don’t think the voters of the Granite State will be fooled twice.
4.  Colorado– I can’t wait for this Abramoff-related scandal to completely blow up in Schaffer’s face.Tier 2– Gonna Make Us Sweat:
5.  Minnesota– Oh, if only R.T. Rybak, Chris Coleman, Betty McCollum, or Mee Moua had run for this seat instead of the uber-polarizing Al Franken . . . you just know that the GOP has loads of incendiary quotes from Franken’s past to pull up at a moment’s notice.  If this weren’t a Democratic year, I’d call this race a goner.  As it is, it’ll be tough, but as long as Obama is our nominee for President, his coattails might be strong enough to sweep Franken over the finish line.
6.  Alaska–Alaska???  Us, winning in Alaska???  If it weren’t for the recent polls, I never would’ve ranked this one at all.  Keep up the good work, Mark Begich!Tier 3– There’s No Knowing Where We’re Rowing, Or Which Way The River’s Flowing:
7.  Maine– What a disappointment this race is so far!  Yeah, yeah, I know, apparently nobody pays attention until the summer, blah blah blah . . . but, just going on the data we have right now, I’m discouraged to no end.  Tom Allen is a textbook Democratic candidate:  excellent on the issues, but somewhat wooden on the stump.  He has to overcome that in order to beat the inexplicably popular Susan Collins (please, could somebody from Maine explain to me what it is that people like so much about her?)
8.  Oregon–Another missed opportunity, and, just as in Minnesota, I’m pissed off that nobody jumped right up from the bench.  I worry that whichever of the two candidates emerges from the primary will be so bloodied, he won’t stand a chance against Gordon Smith.  The only force in our favor is the fact that Oregon is a blue state and it’s a presidential year.Tier 4– Low Probability, But Still Some Chance
9.  Louisiana– For the same reasons as Oregon and Maine, but with the parties reversed, I include this one.  I rank it lower in light of the recent polls that show Landrieu well ahead.  That could change, of course, but for the moment, I’d say we’ll hang onto this one.
10.  Mississippi-B– Musgrove has run statewide campaigns before, and Wicker hasn’t, so I rank this one slightly above North Carolina.  That being said, I highly doubt that things will go our way in such a red state during a presidential year, especially with another senate race on the same ballot.
11.  North Carolina–A lot will depend on who wins the primary.  If it’s Jim Neal, as much as I admire the guy, I’d say this is a goner race.  If it’s Kay Hagan, we might stand some chance . . . but not much.  Voters can see through DINO’s.  If they want a Republican, they’ll vote for a Republican, not a Republican-lite.  Remember, in 2006, we won all the hotly contested seats where we ran real progressives who stuck to their guns (literally, at least for Webb and Tester!)  The only place we lost was Tennessee, and a large part of that, from what I could tell, was due to the fact that Harold Ford ran as a Republican-lite.  Kay Hagan may well prove to be the Harold Ford of this cycle.  I’m hoping that a real progressive– Brad Miller, or perhaps David Kirby– could kick out Richard Burr in 2010.  But I have a sinking feeling that Liddy Dole will stay right where she is.

Tier 5– Solid as Gibraltar:

Everyone else. Don’t get me wrong; Andrew Rice, Scott Kleeb, Rick Noriega, and Larry LaRocco are all fantastic candidates, and I’m glad they’re running.  They are doing us a world of good in terms of representing the progressive “brand” across the country, thereby sowing the seeds for future Democratic victories in those currently red states.  However, those states are just too damn red to go blue anytime soon.  So, while I’ll certainly cheer them on, I don’t have my hopes up.

Franken is fine

The GOP has been after him since day 1 because they

The GOP is keeping its powder dry.

Sorry, no time to comment, just the facts…

Kansas more competitive than Idaho?

It’s possible

My rankings

Alaska over Colorado?

to a zeroth/first derivative or so.  Basically, if things keep on going the way they are, but not accounting for secondary effects of things going the way they are.  Such as, Stevens continues running, but I haven’t accounted for Stevens’s corruption possibly kicking him out of running.  Something like that.  Yeah.  Or just a lot of gut feeling.The reason I rate Maine and Oregon low is because I don’t see them going anywhere right now, though I’d of course love to see them get somewhere.  Maine has a better chance of becoming competitive, since Tom Allen seems like a strong candidate, but based on the Guru’s news, the media seems to be working against him for some reason.  But of course, grassroots campaigning > media, so I think this can get somewhere.

I’m more disappointed in Oregon, and while I think that Smith is a weaker incumbent than Collins, I also have to account for all the infighting and the distaste that people get from it.

Also, a candidate’s margin might be lower but it might be harder to erase that margin.  For example, a candidate might be hitting a ceiling of popularity, or an opponent might just be too overwhelmingly popular or well-respected.  Now, granted, Lincoln Chafee lost despite having a high approval rating and high popularity, though I think that was a unique race with very strange dynamics (liberal Republican in New England with a pissed-off conservative base).

But in that way, I am concerned about a ceiling effect affecting our nominee in Oregon, and I am also concerned that people will see Collins as very moderate and thus approve of her.  However, Risch is demonstrably scared and has a ton of independent candidates to deal with and a primary to boot, while LaRocco has a very neat campaign feature (the workdays) and I’ve heard about a surprisingly excited and active Democratic voter base in Idaho recently.  These things, combined with recent memory of Craig’s scandal and generally lukewarm opinion of Bill Sali, as well as an Obama candidacy, surely have some potential.

Okay.  Maybe I’m being optimistic.  Maybe it’s because I am more excited about capturing a seat from Republican control in a very red state.  Maybe it’s because I for some crazy reason know more about Idaho (and Wyoming) politics than Maine or Oregon politics (or Ohio, Connecticut, Florida, or Massachusetts politics, based on where I’ve lived).  But I’m just trying to divine a lot of this stuff based on lots of second-hand (at best) and third-hand information.  And no polls either.

So yeah, I’m just trying to do my best at estimating our luck.  And the art of prediction never liked the condition of consensus.  Heck, I hope I’m wrong in my pessimism about Oregon and Maine.  But these are just my less-than-two-cents analysis of what’s going on.

Finish the Deal!  Help elect Democrats in districts we narrowly lost in 2006!
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my rankings

rankings

Top 15 for All Races (Tiering included, even though not requested)

April Rankings

1) Virginia
2) New Hampshire
3) New Mexico
4) Colorado
5) Minnesota (will drop if Pawlenty is VP nominee)
6) Alaska (will drop to 14-15 if Stevens defeated in primary)
7) Louisiana (not over by a long shot)
Oregon
9) Maine
10) North Carolina (keep your eye on this one)
11) Mississippi-B  ( no Obama, no chance)
12) Oklahoma (sweetest potential upset)
13) Nebraska
14) Idaho
15) Texas

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My rankings…

Rankings

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. ColoradoThese are pretty obvious. New Mexico before New Hampshire simply because of all the good news we’ve been getting from there.5. Minnesota
6. AlaskaBoth are really toss-ups at this point, but Minnesota is more democrat-friendly.7. Oregon
8. North Carolina
9. Maine
10. Louisiana

The candidates in Oregon don’t seem to be doing that well, but neither is Gordon Smith. As for North Carolina, Dole has a 12-point margin against little-known challengers. The incumbents in Maine and Louisiana currently have bigger margins against better-known challengers.

11. Nebraska

Kleeb did really well two years ago and is already doing much better in fundraising than Raimondo. I expect there’ll be a lot of good news on this race in the next few months. And as Johanns is a chronic quitter, we have an easy line to attack him with.

12. Mississippi-B
13. Idaho
14. Oklahoma
15. Kentucky

These will be interesting races to see how well we can do in but right now they’re just long shots.

April Rankings

1.Virgina-Warner looks good and polling looks better
2.New Mexico- money, name, dad, brother
3.Colorado-name, dad, brother, Abramoff
4.New Hampshire- Sununu’s numbers look bad but NH is crazy
5.Minnesota- Al is running really good campaign but Norm Colman’s money is going to be hard to overcome.
6.Alaska- Stevens is a joke but Alaska is conservative
7.Oregon- A liberal state but its going to be hard to overcome
8.Louisiana- Should be hire but JNK is a joke….
9.Idaho- Larry Craig, 3rd party, cheap state
10.Maine- should go blue but can’t get it started
11.Nebraska- if you can carry 40% in the 3rd as a democrat you are looking good in my eyes. (Kleeb carried 45% in 06 race)
12.Oklahoma- can’t get it started here again
13.Georgia- like the canidates don’t like the state
14.Texas- should be hirer but money spreed scares me
15.Kentucky- Red state which will probably state red…The future will be better tomorrow: by Dan Quayle (a prime example of what education means to republicans)

my top 15

Likely:
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
Tossup:
5) Minnesota
6) Alaska
Lean Incumbent (reasonably popular incs in states of the opposite color with legit opponents):
7) Louisiana
Oregon
9) Maine
Likely inc:
10) North Carolina (Dole’s support soft, not too expensive, Hagan could be good, Obama will help)
Very longshots:
11) Mississippi-B
12) Oklahoma
13) Nebraska
14) Texas
15) Idaho

What the Hell…

First time I’ve done rankings like this, but I might as well put them down for the record…1. Virginia
3. New Mexico
4. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Minnesota
7. Oregon
8. Maine
9. Mississippi-B
10. Nebraska
11. Louisiana
12. North Carolina
13. Oklahoma
14. Texas
15. KentuckyJust missed the cut… Idaho, Kansas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Kentucky.Overall I see a 5 – 7 seat pickup.

April showers on Rethugs

1. Virginia
2. New Hampshire
3. Colorado
4. New Mexico
5. Minnesota
6. Alaska
7. Oregon
8. Maine
9. North Carolina
10. Texas
11. Mississippi-B
12. Louisiana
13. Oklahoma
14. Nebraska
15. IdahoI feel good about Landrieu pulling it out in that odd run-off set-up that have in LA, esp. after the general the GOP  will probably feel like they’ve (proverbially) been wacked in the face with a shovel.What do you guys think about AL and the Siegelman prosecution scandal; might it bring that senate race into play?    (If only someone would out Graham in SC in the meantime!)

Louisiana . . .