MN-Sen: Perspective on the Numbers, Part 2

The Star Tribune on the vote audit “intended to check the accuracy of Minnesota’s optical scan voting machines”:

Call it a sneak preview of the recount.Twenty men and women settled in along tables at the Ramsey County elections office first thing Monday morning and began plowing through more than 7,700 ballots cast last Tuesday in the U.S. Senate race.

After nearly three hours of counting, Norm Coleman had lost exactly one net vote in five of the county’s precincts. Al Franken had gained exactly one.

Just minus-one-vote for Norm Coleman and plus-one-vote for Al Franken after five precincts of counting?  Doesn’t sound like much?  Actually, that’s pretty good news for Franken.  Remember the numbers that the Guru crunched last Thursday:

The current margin between Al Franken and Coleman is a mere 477 votes.  There are 4,132 precincts across Minnesota.  That means that Franken needs only to pick up one single vote every 8.6 precincts in order to claim the lead.  Every 8 or 9 precincts, there just has to be one single ballot overlooked, one single ballot that didn’t scan right.

Just a one vote gain every 8.6 precincts is all Franken needed to overtake Coleman – and that was when he was down 477 votes.  Now that Franken is down just 206 votes, he only needs to pick up one vote every 20 precincts to overtake Coleman.

Granted, one precinct could be very different from the next; but, if the five precincts that the Star Tribune chronicled above is indicative of the state at large, meaning that if there was a two-vote swing in Franken’s favor every 5 precincts, the tally would swing about 1,652 votes in Franken’s favor, giving the Democrat a lead of almost 1,450 votes.

Anyone else looking forward to the recount?

Click here for the new senate guru blog…

This entry was posted in Old Posts. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>