| Senate Republicans 1. Virginia*** Former Governor Mark Warner v. Former Governor Jim Gilmore Total Raised — $6,300,000 v. $402,000 Cash On Hand – $4,380,000 v. $208,000 (Likely Democratic Pick-up)2. New Mexico*** Representative Tom Udall v. Representative Steven Pearce Total Raised — $2,604,000 v. $1,395,000 Cash On Hand – $2,600,000 v. $854,000 (Lean Democratic Pick-up)3. New Hampshire Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen v. Incumbent Senator John Sununu Total Raised — $2,566,000v. $4,143,000 Cash On Hand – $2,000,000 v. $4,300,000 (Lean Democratic Pick-up)4. Colorado*** Representative Mark Udall v. Former Representative Bob Schaffer Total Raised — $3,751,000 v. $3,191,000 Cash On Hand – $3,606,000 v. $2,200,000 (Lean Democratic Pick-up) ——————————————————————— 5. Alaska Mayor Mark Begich v. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens Total Raised — $280,000 v. $2,071,000 Cash On Hand – $250,000 v. $1,300,000 (Toss Up) 6. Minnesota 7. Oregon 8. Maine 10. Mississippi-B*** 12. Idaho*** 14. Kansas 15. Nebraska 16. Kentucky Senate Democrats |
| Notes: - *** = Open Seat - I separated the two parties and their respective competitive/potentially competitive races - I rounded all the fundraising numbers down to the nearest $1,000 - North Carolina doesn’t report fundraising numbers till 4/24/08 - DSCC and NRSC haven’t made public their March fundraising numbers - The long lines are to breakdown the tiers that I see the Senate races in. - I am trying to predict the spending of the DSCC and NRSC when providing my projected outcome – I don’t believe in saying, “Well, if the election were held today…” because if the election were held today, that means for the past two months we’d be getting commercials from both sides. Simple as that.Democratic Offensive Tier 1 = VA, NM, NH, CO Tier 2 = AK, MN, OR, ME Tier 3 = NC, MS Tier 4 = OK, ID Tier 5 = GA, KS, NE, KY Republican Offensive Tier 1 = LAOverview - 6 Republican Senators Retired (CO, ID, MS, NE, NM, VA) - Republican Seats: 1 Likely Dem Pickup – 3 Lean Dem Pickup – 4 Toss Ups – 2 Lean Rep Retention – 6 Likely Rep Retention – 7 Safe Reps - Democratic Seats: 1 Lean Dem Retention – 11 Safe Dems - Current Breakdown of the US Senate: 51D – 49R - Prediction = 6-9 Democratic Pickups in the US Senate - Projected Breakdown of the US Senate: 59D – 41RFundraising for the Respective Committees(2/29/08) DSCC v. NRSC Total Raised — $64,100,000 v. $39,300,000 Cash On Hand – $32,800,000 v. $15,300,000 |
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