Tuesday Odds & Ends

• Illinois: Businessman & RFK son Chris Kennedy has announced that he will pass on a 2010 Senate bid.  As such, the Democratic primary appears cemented between state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League CEO Cheryle Jackson.
• Florida: With Lincoln Diaz-Balart pulling out of consideration for the Senate vacancy created by the resignation of unpopular Republican Mel Martinez, it would appear that former U.S. Attorney Bobby Martinez (no relation to Mel) is the frontrunner.  Will Gov. Charlie Crist, looking to appeal to conservatives for his own 2010 Senate bid, ultimately pick Martinez?  Well, a new revelation may further incense conservatives should Crist pick Martinez:
  

  While the majority of [Martinez'] campaign contributions have gone to Republicans, he has made a few choice donations to prominent Democrats – including the current chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.Martinez gave $1,000 to then-congressman Robert Menendez for his House campaigns during the 1996 and 1998 election cycles. Menendez, now the junior senator from New Jersey, is tasked with helping elect a Democrat to the Florida Senate seat.

  Martinez also donated money to two Democrats in closely contested Senate races during the 2000 election cycle. He donated $1,000 to John Edwards’ campaign when he first ran for the Senate in 1999 and ousted a sitting Republican.

  He also donated $1,000 to former Democratic Sen. Chuck Robb in his unsuccessful campaign against Republican George Allen.

  Will Charlie Crist pick a donor to John Edwards and the current DSCC Chair for the Senate vacancy?  He is strongly considering it.  Stay tuned.

• Colorado: A new Public Policy Polling poll shows Senator Michael Bennet in weak shape, bolstered only by the more severe weakness of his Republican opposition.
  Favorable-Unfavorable*
  Michael Bennet (D) 31-38
  Bob Beauprez (R) 30-40
  Ryan Frazier (R) 11-19
  Ken Buck (R) 17-18 Bennet v. GOP
  Bennet v. Beauprez 39-42
  Bennet v. Frazier 38-33
  Bennet v. Buck 39-35

  *Bennet’s personal numbers were “Approve-Disapprove” rather than “Favorable-Unfavorable.”Senator Bennet’s personal numbers are weak, but Coloradoans have net negative views of everyone running for Senate.  Former Rep. Beauprez, last seen getting crushed in the 2006 gubernatorial race, may feel empowered by these numbers, as the only Republican with even a nominal edge on Senator Bennet.  Numbers like these may encourage me to shift CO-Sen from “Likely Dem” to “Lean Dem.”

• California: Golden parachute recipient Carly Fiorina has filed paperwork to begin exploring a 2010 Senate bid against Senator Barbara Boxer.  The most recent poll of CA-Sen, last week’s Research 2000 numbers, saw Senator Boxer leading Fiorina 52-31.
• Nevada: Indicted Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki has decided to run for re-election for Lt. Gov. instead of a Senate bid, which he had considered.  Not a shocker.
• Pennsylvania: “Lest you forget, Arlen Specter is really, really old.”
• Missouri: Note to Roy Blunt: selling your Georgetown mansion doesn’t make you any less a tool of corporate lobbyists.  Although it will raise him a little extra scratch to put into his campaign bankroll if he’s desperate for dollars.
• Health care reform: The Senate Republican caucus’ #2 man, Jon Kyl, the emptiest suit in Washington, has declared that no amount of concessions to the GOP will bring significant Republican votes for health care reform:
  

  “I think it’s safe to say that there are a huge number of big issues that people have,” Kyl said, referring to Republican senators. “There is no way that Republicans are going to support a trillion-dollar-plus bill.” …”I have no doubt that they can make it revenue netural to find enough ways to tax the American people, but that doesn’t mean the Republicans will support it,” Kyl said.

  Once again, the Senate’s #2 Republican declared that Republicans are not voting for health care reform under virtually any circumstances.  So why on earth are Democrats negotiating with them when they will never win GOP support?

Don’t bet on it.

There’s still a long way to go.  The Mongiardo campaign is increasingly dysfunctional, with staffers and volunteers grumbling about spending outrageous amounts on little things and Mongiardo himself increasingly desperate to lable Conway.  Conway has the rare combination of grassroots support and backing from the political establishment, and is, in general, a good candidate.  When the day comes, he’ll have outpaced Dr. Dan.  The Republican primary is going to get nasty, and with a birther like Rand Paul the crazy is bound to be overwhelming, especially with a candidate like Grayson who tries to avoid saying as much as possible.  Grayson will still come out on top in the primary, but it’s going to be a fun sideshow and Kentucky is going to end up in the tossup category from there on out.

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