2010 Could Be Strong Cycle for Female Democratic Senate Candidates

Taking a moment to look beyond the 2008 election cycle, it is worth noting that 2010 could be a banner year for female Democratic candidates for Senate.  In fact, the 2010 election cycle could be the best cycle ever for non-incumbent female Democratic Senate candidates.Perhaps the two strongest years for non-incumbent female Democratic Senate candidates were 2000 and 1992.  The 2000 cycle featured three non-incumbent female Democratic nominees for Senate: First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow, and businesswoman and former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell.  All three were, of course, victorious (as were they also in their respective 2006 re-election bids).  1992 featured the most non-incumbent female Democratic nominees for Senate (9), and the most victorious female Democratic new Senators (4): Congresswoman Barbara Boxer, former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein (in a special election), State Senator Patty Murray, and Cook County Recorder of Deeds Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois.The current cycle includes three female Democratic nominees for Senate who aren’t incumbents: former Governor Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, in a race that solidly leans Democratic pick-up; State Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina, in a race that narrowly leans Republican retention; and, State Senator Vivian Figures of Alabama, in a race that is likely a strong Republican retention.

Now, back to 2010, there are at least four races in which current female statewide elected officials could be very strong Senate candidates and may likely be interested in persuing such a race.

Arizona: Governor Janet Napolitano is term-limited, so she won’t be running for a third gubernatorial term – but that doesn’t mean she won’t be on the ballot.  She has kicked her federal political action committee into gear to raise money for Democratic candidates around the country.  Her inclusion in 2008 running mate conversations certainly helps her profile.  And, perhaps most notably, a poll taken of a hypothetical 2010 Senate match-up between Napolitano and current Senator John McCain sees Napolitano leading by double-digits, 47-36.  Polling also found Napolitano to be Arizona’s most popular politician, well ahead of McCain, with a 59% approval compared to McCain’s 42%.  And with McCain about to turn 72, even if he loses his Presidential bid, he might not want to run for another Senate term in 2010 at the age of 74.  AZ-Sen 2010 could be Napolitano’s to lose.

Kansas: Governor Kathleen Sebelius is in much the same boat as Governor Napolitano.  Sebelius is term-limited from running for a third term in 2010, and she also finds herself in many a 2008 Veep speculation conversation.  Republican Senator Sam Brownback has made clear his intention to retire in 2010, leaving an open seat.  Yes, 1932 was the last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate race in Kansas.  That said, Governor Sebelius’ approval rating was most recently put at a very strong 62%, including the approval of about half of Kansas Republicans.  With former Congressman Jim Slattery waging a competitive campaign against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts this year, a Democrat with the support of Sebelius in an open seat race could fare very well.

Florida: Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink may not be a name that is as easily recognizable, even to political junkies, as the above-mentioned Governors’ names.  But you may hear that name more frequently after the 2008 cycle comes to an end and we begin looking at 2010 Senate races with greater focus.  Sink is Florida’s only Democratic statewide elected official besides Senator Bill Nelson, which immediately puts her into consideration when discussing potential candidates.  Incumbent Republican Senator Mel Martinez has routinely had relatively lousy approval ratings, making him a top target for Democrats in 2010.  Further, Public Policy Polling recently released a poll on a hypothetical Sink-Martinez match-up and found that Sink led 37-31.  Prior to serving as Florida’s CFO, she was President of Bank of America, so she could probably debate rings around Martinez regarding economic matters.  And her household is no stranger to statewide electoral politics, her husband being 2002 Florida Gubernatorial nominee Bill McBride.

Missouri: Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is, of course, a member of the Carnahan political family of Missouri, which includes the late former Governor Mel Carnahan (Robin’s father, who tragically died in a plane crash during his 2000 Senate bid, which he posthumously won against incumbent Republican John Ashcroft), former Senator Jean Carnahan (Robin’s mother, who was appointed to the Senate seat that Mel Carnahan posthumously won), and Congressman Russ Carnahan (Robin’s brother).  The patriarch of the Carnahan political clan was former Congressman and Ambassador Albert Carnahan (Robin’s paternal grandfather).  Robin Carnahan, who won election to her current office in 2004 by a 51-46 margin, is currently amid a re-election campaign, meaning that she wouldn’t have to sacrific her current office to run for Senate in 2010.  Carnahan appears to have only token Republican opposition in her 2008 re-election bid.  Meanwhile, the Republican incumbent, Kit Bond, will turn 71 in 2010, and will be a prominent blip on the retirement radar.  The scion of Missouri’s most prominent political family against an aging Bond (whose approval rating in recent months has been remarkably mercurial between the low-40s and high-50s) would be extremely competitive.  A brand new poll by Public Policy Polling sees Bond and Carnahan in a statistical dead heat, Bond only up 44-42.  Given that, in an open seat should Bond retire, Carnahan would conceivably be the front-runner.  It doesn’t hurt that, between Claire McCaskill’s Senate victory in 2006 and Jay Nixon’s strong lead in this year’s Gubernatorial race, Missouri is again getting quite comfortable electing Democrats statewide.

These four women, current statewide elected officials all, would make formidable Senate candidates.  In fact, all four could, under very realistic conditions, be considered favorites to win their respective Senate seats if they made Senate bids in 2010.  They are not the only women who might consider a Senate bid next cycle.  Keep an eye on the following potential Senate candidates.

In Louisiana, with Democrats not having the deepest bench, the Party could turn to former Governor Kathleen Blanco.  Though Blanco opted against running for re-election rather than facing the state’s most popular politician in now-Gov. Bobby Jindal, incumbent David Vitter is not as secure as Jindal.  Vitter was politically wounded in his notorious prostitution scandal and will likely face a bruising primary, which may provide a Democrat like former Governor Blanco exactly the recipe for a political comeback.

In Ohio, while all eyes are on Congressman Tim Ryan as a potential challenger to incumbent Republican George Voinovich (who may simply retire at the end of his current term, as he’d be 74-years-old on Election Day 2010), if Ryan opts against a run, expect the clamor to shift to Congresswoman Betty Sutton.  The 45-year-old Sutton handily won the seat that Sherrod Brown gave up to run for Senate in 2006.  Sutton, Ryan and Congressman Zack Space are the three Democratic members of Ohio’s Congressional delegation who will be under the age of 60 on Election Day 2010.  The same Public Policy Polling poll that saw Ryan and Voinovich tied 33-33 in a hypothetical 2010 match-up also saw Sutton down only five points, 37-32, against Voinovich, no doubt a very strong starting point given that each Congressperson only represents about one-eighteenth of the state, while Voinovich has been a statewide elected official for eighteen years (eight as Governor, ten so far as Senator).

In Idaho, State Representative Nicole LeFavour, currently a candidate for State Senate, had considered a 2008 Senate bid before deferring to former Congressman Larry LaRocco; don’t be surprised if she gives a look toward an underdog bid against incumbent Bush-rubber-stamp Mike Crapo.

In North Carolina, Republican Richard Burr may be even less popular than Elizabeth Dole, so, if State Senator Kay Hagan‘s 2008 bid falls short, she could run again.

As for other current female Democratic statewide officeholders: in Pennsylvania, Treasurer Robin Weissman (appointed to fill the remainder of Bob Casey’s term after his election to the U.S. Senate) is not running for a full term in 2008, so it is questionable as to whether she’d be interested in a Senate bid against Republican Arlen Specter, though an open seat may be more enticing if Specter were to retire; and, in South Dakota, at-large Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin would probably have an easier path to the Senate holding her House seat for a few more terms while awaiting a potential Tim Johnson retirement in 2014 rather than challenging John Thune in 2010.

We’ll close the post with a look at the last twenty years of non-incumbent female Democratic candidates for Senate.  Who do you think would make a strong female Democratic candidate for Senate in 2010?  Offer your thoughts in the comments.

2008 (? for 3):
Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, NH
State Senator Kay Hagan, NC
State Senator Vivian Figures, AL
2006 (2 for 4):
State Auditor Claire McCaskill, MO
Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar, MN
Attormey Barbara Ann Radnofsky, TX
Writer Jean Hay Bright, ME
2004 (0 for 5):
Univ. of South Florida President Betty Castor, FL
State Treasurer Nancy Farmer, MO
State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, SC
Congresswoman Denise Majette, GA
Activist Doris “Granny D” Haddock, NH
2002 (0 for 6):
Governor Jeanne Shaheen, NH
State Auditor Susan Parker, AL
Former State Senate Majority Leader Chellie Pingree, ME
Federal Communications Commissioner Gloria Tristani, NM
Education activist Lois Combs Weinberg, KY
Therapist Joyce Jansa Corcoran, WY

2000 (3 for 3):
First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, NY
Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow, MI
Businesswoman and former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell, WA

1998 (1 for 3):
Former Congresswoman Blanche Lincoln, AR
Former State First Lady Dottie Lamm, CO
Cuyahoga County Commissioner Mary Boyle, OH
1996 (1 for 5):
State Treasurer Mary Landrieu, LA
State Treasurer Sally Thompson, KS
Stockbroker Jill Docking, KS (special election)
Therapist Joyce Jansa Corcoran, WY
Former Anchorage School Board Member Theresa Obermeyer, AK
1994 (0 for 3):
State House Majority Leader Ann Wynia, MN
State Senator Jan Backus, VT
State Representative Linda Kushner, RI
1992 (4 for 9):
Congresswoman Barbara Boxer, CA
Former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein, CA (special election)
State Senator Patty Murray, WA
Cook County Recorder of Deeds Carol Moseley Braun, IL
St. Louis County Councilmember Geri Rothman-Serot. MO
State Senator Jean Lloyd-Jones, IA
Activist Lynn Yeakel, PA
Teacher Gloria O’Dell, KS
Activist Claire Sargent, AZ

1990 (0 for 2):
Activist Josie Heath, CO
Student Kathy Helling, WY

1988:
None


by: you @ soon

This post is right up my alley.

A few things-We should be careful when considering both Napolitano and Sebelius for future campaigns right now as both are potential vps and cabinet members in an Obama admin.  Still, Arizona as Gabrielle Giffords, and Kansas has Nancy Boyda. In Pennsylvania, Allyson Swartz has been mentioned as a possible challenger to Specter.Also, looking to Iowa, it’s possible that Patty Judge (the Lt. Gov) could make a run for Grassley’s seat (also high on the retirement list) though if she opts to wait her turn for the governorship, I wouldn’t mind looking to Denise O’Brien, the strong progressive organic farmer who nearly won the job at the state’s agriculture department and has kept a high profile since then.Lastly, I’m fully expecting Inouye to retire next cycle, and if that’s the case Mazie Hiruno would be a great candidate to fill his seat.Check out Blue Arkansas:

http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/


by: ARDem @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 12:12:49 PM CDT


by: you @ soon

Hawaii

I personally think that, if Inouye retires, it’s pretty much Linda Lingle’s seat to lose. She’s the most popular Republican in Hawaii, and has very strong positives. Hiruno would be a two term congresswoman, and a race against Lingle with an experience disparity would almost be suicide.If Lingle decides NOT to run, however, then Hiruno should pounce on it. Either way, if Inouye decides not to run for re-election, Hawaii is going to be one of those close races that we wait until the next morning to declare a winner.


 

by: Anthony Distler @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 12:43:11 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

 

 

Does she want it though?

Governors don’t always want to be Senators.  Has she made any indecation that she’s interested in the seat?

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


 

by: wmlawman @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 15:45:24 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Horino was a former two term Lt Governor

from 1994-2002.
She narrowly lost the 2002 Governors race to Linda Lingle. In 2002- the outgoing Democratic Governor Ben Cayetano was unpopular – Republicans were popular nationally during 2002.
Hawaii is a blue state at the national level. Getting elected Governor is different the getting elected to the US Senate.


 

by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 17:29:50 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

All definately true.

But my question still stands.  Has Lingle ever expressed interest in a Senate seat? A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


by: wmlawman @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 09:31:22 AM CDT


by: you @ soon

I doubt Inouye(HI) is going to retire in 2010- since he is in line to be

President Pro Temp once Byrd(WV) and Kennedy(MA)retire in 2012. If Lingle runs for the US Senate it will be for the Akaka(HI)seat in 2012- Akaka has been under Inouye’s shadow. He is likely to retire before Inouye.


by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 10:06:25 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

That’s assuming a lot.

I’ll give you Byrd retiring, but Kennedy probably won’t if he is still in good health.And Inouye is old and may not want to be in the Senate another six years.

Oh, and we’re assuming we hold the Senate by that point.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


 

by: wmlawman @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 10:16:21 AM CDT

 

 Inouye will be 86 when he is up for re-election.

He is couple of years younger Robert Byrd(WV). Inouye(HI)is probally going to stay in the Senate until he leaves in a body bag.


 

by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 11:11:31 AM CDT

I think the same about Kennedy.

But 86 is pretty damn old, so who knows.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


by: wmlawman @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 12:06:42 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Don’t forget his friendship with the tubes man.

Inouye and Stevens have a very close friendship, so much so that Inouye routinely gives Stevens donations and has said at one point that he didn’t think he could stay in the Senate if the old goat wasn’t there with him.  If Stevens goes down, Inouye might not be too far behind.

Check out Blue Arkansas:

http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/


 

by: ARDem @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 16:40:14 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

IA

Iowa hasn’t elected a woman to congress or to the governor’s office yet, one of the few states to hold that dubious honor.   I’m not saying the state’s electorate is inherently sexist, but the election of a woman to the Senate would be an historic step for Iowa.  I think a lot of that has to do with the minimal opportunities (the state tends to hold onto its elected officials) and the older electorate that may not be comfortable voting for a woman.Patty Judge would be a very strong candidate.  The last three or four Lt Govs have been women and Judge was elected twice statewide on her own as Ag Sect.  I don’t really see Judge as running for the Senate though.  She’ll be 66/67 by Nov 2010.  I personally like Bruce Braley to run for the seat, hopefully taking out Tom Latham or Steve King in the process.

Find me blogging at Political Realm


 

by: PoliticalRealm @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 16:14:23 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

What about Tom Vilsack.

He is the 800 lb gorilla.


 

by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 17:31:49 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

 

Wooooo!

I love looking at 2010 Senate races.I think one big race your missing is PA-Sen. Allyson Swartz is very widely rumored to be building up a base for a Senate run and is likely going to be the Democratic candidate.

Also in North Carolina there are plenty of other women on the bench. Then Governor Bev Purdue would likely make a strong candidate but if she didn’t decide to run Secretary of State Elaine Marshall or State Superintendent June Atkinson could make a strong runs. Both will be in their third terms by then and are up for re-election in 2008 so wouldn’t have to risk losing their jobs.

Also if the top tier candidates decide against running in those first three states you have Reps Gabrielle Giffords, Nancy Boyda and Kathy Castor who would also make fantastic candidates.

A few other possibilities, Carol Shea-Porter for Senate against Gregg and if Chandler shocks the world and doesn’t run (I give about the same chance to Mark Warner losing) then Crit Luallen would make a fantastic candidate.


 

by: Populista @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 12:47:11 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Giffords for Senate

Now THAT’S a campaign I can contribute to.Also, Blanco is interesting. Wasn’t one of her problems the fact that people looked at her negatively with the handling of Katrina? I thought that was the reason she decided not to run. It’s that’s not the case, and she has some pretty solid approval ratings, she could really give Diaper Dandy Vitter a race.


 

by: Anthony Distler @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 12:49:55 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

I think she is more likely

to take out then Minority Leader Kyl in 2012. So save up your pennies.Also if Obama doesn’t pick a female VP and whoever is nominated in 2016 isn’t female I think she has a better then 50 percent chance of being VP. Swing state, female, Jewish, charismatic. She fits the bill perfectly.

Also Blanco lost beacuse she is mega unpopular. She wouldn’t have a chance against Vitter, IMO. Louisiana is a tough state.


 

by: Populista @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 17:41:54 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

It’s “Schwartz” . . .

. . . not “Swartz.”  And, yes, I’m hoping she’ll be a top contender for Specter’s seat (which I’m betting will be an open seat; Specter says he won’t retire right now, but after November, I’ll bet he’ll declare himself out of the running).I’m surprised no one is mentioning Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner running for Voiney’s seat.  Brunner has been elected at the state level, so she could definitely be competitive.

As for New Hampshire, I doubt Carol Shea-Porter will jump into the Senate race in 2010 . . . and, frankly, I dread the prospect of her doing so.  She is a shoddy fundraiser and an unenthusiastic campaigner.  This year, she is barely running to hang onto her Congressional seat, putting all her hopes in being re-elected on the coattails of Shaheen and Obama.  So, as much as I would love to see the absolute maximum number of Democratic and/or liberal female non-incumbents win, I just don’t think Shea-Porter is a good pick for that Senate race.  My money and my hopes are on Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand.  He’s one of the most impressive up-and-comers I’ve seen in awhile, a real progressive who has excellent charisma and substance to back it up.


 

by: The Caped Composer @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 14:06:20 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Whoops

Well she sure seems to be positioning for it. And Pat Toomey is likely to run again and would stand a much better chance this time. I don’t see Specter running again.Brunner would be interesting but she has a lot of work to do yet cleaning up Ohio’s election system. I think Hodes is more likely then Marchand but I was very impressed by his campaign.


 

by: Populista @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 17:32:13 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Purdue, if she wins, is not going to run for Senate

two years later.  Hell, if she wants a Senate seat, she would have run this year.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


by: wmlawman @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 15:26:21 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

My thoughts exactly

Check out Blue Arkansas:

http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/


by: ARDem @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 16:22:04 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

.

Sebelius has no intention of running for Brownback’s senate seat.  She wants to be a member of the cabinet, not part of the legislature.  That said, even if she runs she’ll be running against either Congressman Jerry Moran (KS-1) or Congressman Todd Tiahrt (KS-4), both of whom have high approval ratings and pretty decent visibility.  Moran comes from the Big 1st, same as Dole, Roberts, Kassebaum and most of the other officials who are elected for state-wide office.


by: SenateGuruSucks @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 13:05:51 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Well hi there

Do you have nothing better to do with your time?


by: Populista @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 17:33:43 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Moran and Tiahrt are wing nut Conservatives.

A moderate Democrat like Sebelius will defeat wingnut Conservatives like Moran and Tiahrt.


by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 17:45:44 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

One more thing . . .

Guru, on your historical chart there, you ought to put an asterisk next to the names of female challengers who were running against female incumbents.  That way, it’ll be easier to keep track of the total number of women in the Senate when making projected calculations.(For the record, there are currently 16 women in the Senate; 11 Democrats and five Republicans).


by: The Caped Composer @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 14:11:06 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Alex Sink

Should hold off for a run for Governor and let one of our young and liberal South FL reps take a shot at Martinez. Martinez is weak and I don’t think we should waste Sink on such an easy target. The governor’s mansion has proven very elusive for Democrats lately and I don’t see many strong candidates for the job if she goes for the Senate.


by: nibit25 @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 14:13:34 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

How about Wexler

Is Congressman Wexler too liberal to win in Florida? He would be my favorite candidate for the seat, but if might be tough to run him, seeing how liberal he actually is.


by: Anthony Distler @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 14:56:25 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Wexler is WAAAY to liberal for Florida

as a whole.  But I agree that maybe Sink should hold off and wait for the governors race.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt


by: wmlawman @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 15:25:30 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

But . . .

. . . as weak as Martinez may be, would a young liberal SoFla congressperson be able to win statewide?  Florida has some very, er, NASCAR-inclined parts, and I don’t think those parts of the state would be too enthused about a Jewish candidate such as Robert Wexler, Ron Klein, or Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.(Nevertheless, I think DWS has her eye on running statewide; why else would she have gone so easy on three of her GOP colleagues?  And, speaking of those particular three . . . the Diaz-Balart Bros. may well go down this year in the wave, but Ileana Ros-Lehtinen will hang on.  And I dread the prospect of her running for statewide office in Florida, especially the Senate.  She’d be the Olympia Snowe of Florida– very personable, and  widely perceived to be moderate based upon her stance on a few social issues, resulting in typically-Democratic voters casting their ballots for her time and time again, while she issues a reliable rubber stamp for the GOP leadership in Washington).


by: The Caped Composer @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 15:08:04 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

We’ll Have to Monitor It Closely

If it looks like the South FL reps are too liberal, then we always have Congressman Allen Boyd up here in Tallahassee. He would be another Nelson but we would probably get something along those lines with Sink anyways and like I said, right now she is our strongest bet to win a governors race.


by: nibit25 @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 15:34:55 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

DWS

“Nevertheless, I think DWS has her eye on running statewide; why else would she have gone so easy on three of her GOP colleagues?”Because she had a dumb cluck moment like a great many other Congressional dems.  I’m afraid DWS seems more interested in climbing the leadership totem pole in the House, so I doubt we’re going to see her statewide anytime soon.

Check out Blue Arkansas:

http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/


by: ARDem @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 16:26:12 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

I wouldnt suppport

I wouldnt vote for DWS…after she tried to give the 3 South Florida a free ride for reelection  in this year’s congressional election.  Anyone who would compromise her prinicples like that does not need to be a Democrat in the Senate.


by: IndyDem @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 20:39:37 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Let me get this straight…

You wouldn’t support a Democrat running for Senate because she wouldn’t support Democrats running for House?


by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 00:39:29 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

Your reasoning . . .

. . . would apply without a problem for the Senate primary.  But if she got the nomination to run for Senate, you’re saying you’d rather sit it out or (gulp!) vote Republican????  Puh-LEEZE!  I’m sure we all would’ve bitten our lips and thrown our support to Hillary if she had landed the nomination.  Well, the same holds true for DWS.With that being said, I hope DWS never runs for statewide office.  She’d be a disaster in the non-Sixth Borough parts of the state.  I say, keep the South Floridians out of the statewide offices; the Democrats will only lose if they run, and the Republicans . . . well, see what I said above regarding Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.  If she ever runs for Senate, we’re doomed– she will become the Olympia Snowe of Florida, and hold that seat for life!


by: The Caped Composer @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 09:16:50 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

I agree

Crists approval is tanking and so Sink now might be able to take him out.Let Kathy Castor run. She’s young, progressive and could win.


by: Populista @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 17:35:04 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Yeah

And another Castor/Martinez race would make for a great narrative. It would definitely have a better outcome this time


by: nibit25 @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 17:47:28 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

ah perfect

Sink for governor, Castor for Senate.   Good work everyone  :)


by: AndrewMN @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 12:44:57 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

2008- we get one more female in the US Senate Shaheen(NH).

Obama gets elected President- His IL US Senate Seat gets filled by either Lisa Madigan or Jan Schakowsky.
2010.
Arizona- Janet Napalitano is term limited from seeking a third term as Governor. Running against McCain is her only option. A Napolitano vs McCain race becomes a tossup. An open seat with Napolitano as the Democratic nominee becomes a Democratic Pickup.
Florida- Alex Sink has an option of running for Governor against Crist or US Senate against Martinez. Martinez is an easier target than Crist. Another candidate is Kathy Castor- daughter of Mel Martinez 2004 Democratic opponent.
Hawaii- possible open seat- a race between Lingle(R)vs Horino(D).
Kansas- Kathleen Sebelius is term limited from seeking a third term as Governor. Sam Brownback is retiring in 2010. Because Kansas is a red state- The republicans need to nominate a Moderate- in the mold of Nancy Kassebaum to defeat Sebelius otherwise Sebelius is favored to win.
Missouri- Robin Carnihan is a top tier opponent against Kit Bond. Democratic pickup if Bond decides to retire.
Ohio- Possible open seat.How popular is Ohio Sec of State Jennifer Brunner.
Pennsylvania- possible open seat- Alyson Schwartz is the Democratic nominee if Specter retires- Democratic pickup.


by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 17:20:08 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Lisa Madigan

who can tell me about her?  I’ve heard a lot of excellent things.  And having her in the Senate apparently gets her out of Blago’s hair?


by: AndrewMN @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 12:48:51 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Minorities?

Maybe the Guru should post one of these for minority candidates.  Lord knows the country clu…oops…I mean the Senate could use more diversity.

Check out Blue Arkansas:

http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/


by: ARDem @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 16:43:32 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

At this point . . .

. . . it seems as if a lot of high-profile minority candidates are heading toward the gubernatorial races, not the Senate.  Former Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer may well be the next governor of Michigan, and current Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villarraigosa has his eye on the governorship in California when Ahhnuld’s term is up.In terms of Senate races . . . hmmm . . . well, in New Mexico, if Jeff Bingaman decides to retire in 2012 (I know, he’s relatively young, but he indicated that he wanted to retire in 2006, and Schumer had to arm-twist him into staying,) New Mexico State Auditor Hector Balderas could definitely be a contender.  And in Maryland, I predict that Barbara Mikulski will put in one more term, and then call it quits in 2016, at which point Congresswoman Donna Edwards will win the open seat.


by: The Caped Composer @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 23:23:49 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Regarding the Bingaman seat- any chance Big Bill runs

if he is not selected as Obama’s VP or Secretary of State. Regarding the Mikulski seat- It could be Chris Van Hollen.


by: nkpolitics @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 07:55:00 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

I doubt it.

Big Bill is an executive in temperament. Yeah, he was in the House all those years ago, but he used that as a starting point.  He has clearly wanted to be in charge, and would probably hate being one of 100.And as for the Maryland seat . . . Van Hollen’s power in the House continues to grow.  Why would he leave that behind to be a freshman Senator– especially if Mikulski stays in until 2016?


by: The Caped Composer @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 12:35:55 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Richardson leaves office in 2010- He becomes a private citizen.

His only chance of running for President is in 2012- If McCain is president or 2016- When Obama completes his second term as President. If Richardson wants to stay relevant in the national political arena- Running for the US Senate is a safe betI agree with you on Van Hollen who is likely to be House Majority Leader/Whip or Caucus Chairman.


by: nkpolitics @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 12:59:45 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

If Obama wins . . .

. . . I would bet on Richardson having some Cabinet post.  He’s a big-power high-profile type, and will not become the junior Senator from New Mexico after raising his profile so high.


by: The Caped Composer @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 15:11:17 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

I agree- He becomes Secretary of State. or will become

White House Chief of  Staff.


by: nkpolitics @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 15:23:09 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

GA probably does not figure into this, sad to say

Even if they are successful this Tuesday in the Congressional primaries, Regina Thomas (GA-12) and Donzella James (GA-13) would be freshman Representatives running against either incumbent Senator Isakson or, if Johnny decided to bail out of the Senate in the event of an ’08 Democratic blowout, term-limited Governor Perdoodoo.  Cathy Cox and Denise Majette are finished.  There are good Democratic women in the state Legislature, but none with any degree of statewide name recognition.


by: CLLGADEM @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 21:36:27 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

2010 Female Democratic Senate Candidates

I have urged KY’s State Auditor Crit Luallen (D-KY) to consider seriously a run for Jim Bunning’s (R-KY) U.S. Senate seat in ’10.  She is hugely popular, having won reelection in ’07 with 70% of the vote! She is a crusader against govt. corruption–and we have too few of folks like her in either party here in the Bluegrass State.  She declined to run for McConnell’s seat this year, having just been reelected as State Auditor. But Bunning is vulnerable (barely winning against Mongiardo in ’02, a year when the GOP was STRONG, by claiming that Mongiardo “looked like Saddam’s sons!”) and Crit Luallen is a FIGHTER. She has beaten breast cancer–Bunning will not be close!For Martinez in FL, don’t leave out Congresswoman Corrinne Brown. She is as progressive as Wexler FL Dems love her for her strong battle against the disenfranchisement of ’00 and against the delegate stripping (the violation of DNC rules was rigged by the GOP-controlled state legislature) this year.

CA: Barbara Boxer (D-CA) is not young; Do CA Dems have anyone of either sex lined up for ’10 in case she decides to retire?

IL: Is Tanya Duckworth still the inside track favorite to be appointed to Obama’s seat if he wins the presidency? Could she win election in her own right in ’10? She has never won an election and she has never run statewide.

MA: Kennedy may well die before his term finishes in ’12. Are there any women in the works for his seat?

Utah has not been participating much in the Democratic trend in the Southwest, but could that change by ’10?

I also do not expect Byrd’s health to last until ’12. If he retires or dies in office, this could be a good chance for a strong Democratic woman–Gosh knows that WV is not going to make history by electing a racial minority! (Alas, my own KY is in that same boat!)


by: Leveller @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 22:39:58 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

Corrine Brown is too unelectable.

Kendrick Meek is another possible candidate against Martinez. or Karen Thurman.Regarding who succeeds Boxer- Look for Lorreta Sanchez.

Regarding who succeeds Obama- It is Madigan or Schakowksy.

Kennedy- Shannon OBrien or Martha Coakley

Utah- Enid Green Waldhotz


by: nkpolitics @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 23:00:29 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

unforgiven

Too many people have not forgotten or forgiven Barbara Boxer for rushing to Connecticut to campaign for and help save Joe Lieberman….we have her to thank for Lieberman’s traveling with McCain and speaking at their convention and more importantly,  his constantly voting with Bush in the Senate.    Boxer burnt her bridges with that maneuver.

Click here for the new senate guru blog…

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